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Auto Racing

NASCAR GEICO 500 Picks, Predictions, Odds

Kevin Rogers
Kevin Rogers Sports Betting Expert
1 minute read

The first of two races to take place at Talladega Superspeedway this season occurs on Sunday afternoon with the GEICO 500. This is the second race on a superspeedway as the Daytona 500 was the first one back in February, won by William Byron.

Just like anything else in NASCAR, the type of track dictates how many of these drivers fare. Some excel on the road course (Chase Elliott and Tyler Reddick), while Kyle Larson dominates on the short track. So what about the superspeedway?

Since 2020, two of the most successful drivers on the superspeedway have been Ryan Blaney and Denny Hamlin. Blaney has four top-two finishes, including a win at Talladega in 2023, while Hamlin has placed in the top 7 on six occasions during this span at Talladega.

NASCAR EXPERT BETS - GEICO 500

For this week's GEICO 500 on Sunday April 21, 2024 from Talladega Superspeedway in Talladega, Alabama, our auto racing experts are focusing on the below individuals:

  • Chris Buescher
  • Bubba Wallace
  • Austin Dillon
Chris Buescher Race Winner (+2500)

Betting at Talladega/Daytona is a lot different than any other racetrack that we visit. I typically spread out my outright bets with smaller unit bets and focus more on long shots I think can win the race.

Buescher has finished 5th or better in 3 of the last 5 superspeedway races, including a win at Daytona last season. He's struggled with finishes at Talladega, but he approaches Talladega the same way he does Daytona. Brad Keselowski is one of the best pushers in NASCAR, and he just happens to be the teammate and car owner for Buescher. Buescher has shown the upside in these races, and I'm showing value at 25/1.

Bubba Wallace Race Winner (+1600)

Betting at Talladega/Daytona is a lot different than any other track we visit. I typically spread out my outright bets with smaller unit bets and focus more on long shots who I think can win the race.

Wallace finished 5th at Daytona earlier this season and continues to try to run towards the front of the pack. He has the 6th-highest average running position in the 9 superspeedways with the Next-Gen car. I'm looking for the right mix of aggressiveness with speed. I don't like betting heavy favorites at Talladega, but I think Wallace has the upside to win this race at 16/1.

Austin Dillon Race Winner (+4000)

Betting at Talladega/Daytona is a lot different than any other racetracks we visit. I typically spread out my outright bets with smaller unit bets and focus more on long shots I think can win the race.

It's been a rough start to the 2024 season for Austin Dillon. With that said, he's an above-average superspeedway racer, and he has multiple wins on superspeedways. While I still think the best strategy is to run toward the front, Austin Dillon has found success with the hanging back strategy. With the new package, these races have become more fuel strategy races, and when running towards the back, Dillon can be max saving. If he can stay out of trouble, I think he has the upside to win. I'm sad I missed this line at 60/1 earlier this week, but I'm grabbing 40 since it's moved to 30 on some books.

The NASCAR circuit heads to Talladega this week for the GEICO 500. (Getty)

GEICO 500 BETTING RESOURCES

  • Date: Sunday, April 21, 2024
  • TV-Time: FOX, 3:00 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Talladega Superspeedway
  • Location: Talladega, Alabama
  • Distance: 500 miles
  • Laps: 188

Don't forget to use our BetMGM bonus code to get more when you wager.

2024 GEICO 500 BETTING ODDS

  • Denny Hamlin +1000
  • Joey Logano +1000
  • Ryan Blaney +1100
  • Brad Keselowski +1100
  • William Byron +1200
  • Chase Elliott +1200
  • Bubba Wallace +1400
  • Kyle Busch +1600
  • Ross Chastain +1600
  • Christopher Bell +1800
  • Kyle Larson +1800
  • Ty Gibbs +2000
  • Tyler Reddick +2000
  • Chase Buescher +2200
  • Alex Bowman +2500
  • Erik Jones +2500
  • Martin Truex, Jr. +2500
  • Corey Lajoie +2500
  • Austin Cindric +2800
  • Daniel Suarez +3000
  • Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. +3500
  • Chase Briscoe +4000
  • Austin Dillon +4000
  • Michael McDowell +4000
  • Noah Gragson +4000
  • Todd Gilliand +5000
  • Shane van Gisbergen +6000
  • Ryan Preece +6000
  • Zane Smith +7500
  • Josh Berry +7500
  • Justin Haley +7500
  • Carson Hocevar +7500
  • John Hunter Nemechek +7500
  • Harrison Burton +10000
  • Daniel Hemric +10000
  • Cody Ware +30000
  • B.J. McLeod +30000
  • Anthony Alfredo +30000

GEICO 500 RACE HISTORY

Kyle Busch won last year's GEICO 500 at Talladega. (Getty)
  • 2023 - Kyle Busch
  • 2022 - Ross Chastain
  • 2021 - Brad Keselowski
  • 2020 - Ryan Blaney
  • 2019 - Chase Elliott
  • 2018 - Joey Logano
  • 2017 - Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
  • 2016 - Brad Keselowski
  • 2015 - Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
  • 2014 - Denny Hamlin

Auto Racing News

Kevin Rogers

Kevin Rogers

Kevin has been handicapping professionally since 2007 at VegasInsider before shifting to ScoresAndOdds. He focuses on MLB, NFL, college football, NBA, college basketball, and NHL and mainly uses trends, systems, and situations as his top handicapping angles. More from Kevin Rogers
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