Week 8 Best Bet
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
Week 8 CFL Betting Preview
Ottawa Redblacks vs Montreal Alouettes
The rematch between Saskatchewan and BC last week turned in the only 'over' in CFL action for the second straight week, as three kick return TD's was music to the ears of bettors that went 'over' the number again. After cashing with that play two weeks ago when the Lions and Riders met in Saskatchewan, flipping the script last week and going low didn't work out thanks to those special teams TD's. But those are the breaks sometimes, and it's not like the 'over' play two weeks ago didn't benefit from it's own special teams score as well.
That means it's on to Week 8 now with another full slate of four games in the CFL. The week starts with a double-header on Thursday night once again, but it's the Friday Night showcase between two rivals from the East that stands out. Ottawa and Montreal met in Ottawa just a few weeks back (July 13th), and it was the Redblacks who looked awful as 8.5-point home favorites. The 36-19 win for Montreal was domination from the start, as the Alouettes have now won three in a row SU (all as underdogs) and have become the toast of the league this week in terms of being a surprising squad on the positive side of things.
However, upset wins happen all the time in this league and it's a different ball game when you go from continually being the underdog to now being expected to win as favorites. Montreal only laid chalk ONCE in all of 2018 (they did beat the Argos 40-10), and 2017 saw them go 1-4 ATS when closing as a favorite or a pick'em. The feeling surrounding this 2019 version of the Alouettes is that this year will be different, but to have a point spread flip 16 total points against the same opponent in the matter of three weeks is impossible to ignore.
So will Montreal continue their upward climb as being a highly talked about team for their improvement this year, or will this giant point spread shift be too many points for the Alouettes to overcome in this rematch?
YTD: 4-2 ATS
CFL Odds: Montreal (-7.5); Total set at 53
Ottawa's losing streak extended to four games last week with a controversial decision to take a safety late in the game to allow just a FG to beat them, rather then punt the ball away, yes, give Calgary a short field, but forcing the Stamps to need a TD to win. HC Rick Campbell owned up to his regrets in that decision after the game, as the 17-16 defeat added another layer to their recent woes. The Redblacks enter this week having lost four in a row, and they really blew a great outing from their defense specifically a week ago.
But it's not like there weren't signs of improvement for Ottawa, as they moved the ball against Calgary quite well in the 1st half of that game and just couldn't punch it into the end zone. Every bettor knows that any team that continually settles for FG's – especially short ones – is more then likely setting themselves up for failure in the end. While it took a highly questionable coaching decision in the end to reach that failure, had the Redblacks offense been able to put a few TD's up on the board earlier, that questionable decision would have never been made.Moving the ball consistently was a positive to hang their hat on – even if it was just for a half – and with the return of starting QB Dominique Davis this week, their is definitely more cause for optimism. Davis hasn't been dominant by any stretch of the imagination, but he's definitely more capable to be the starter for the Redblacks at this stage of the season, and as long as he is able to protect the football, this offense should look much better then they have for weeks.
The problem with that is that's a big “if” for Davis going up against a Montreal defense that's been the biggest reason for the Alouettes three-game winning streak and turning their season around. They held a very talented Edmonton attack to just 10 points in their last outing, and coming off the bye with two weeks to prepare for this home game is quite the beneficial situation on paper at least. It's not like Montreal's an organization that's gotten used to winning in recent years, so complacency off the bye is unlikely, but winning the game SU and winning by 8+ points are two very different prospective results to wrap your head around.
The fact that this point spread has shifted the 16 points it has in a matter of weeks is telling to just how over-reactive the betting market can be in the span of a few weeks. One team – Montreal – has gotten nothing but praise (and rightfully so) for the past few weeks for their play, and all anyone remembers about Ottawa in that same span is how they got dominated at home by this Alouettes team as a big home favorite, put up just a single point the following week against Winnipeg, and then shot themselves in the foot for a victory against Calgary last week. In terms of perception, Montreal's stock probably couldn't be much higher right now and it would be tough for Ottawa's to be much lower. That can become a very problematic scenario in this spot because there is no way that just a few results and a home field switch warrant a 16-point swing in the spread.
These two teams aren't that different from the two versions of themselves that met three weeks ago, and what ended up being a bad number on Ottawa in that game, has the same feel of being a bad one on Montreal here. Even counting for home field advantage, neither team should really be laying more than a TD against the other, as recent form is still too influential across all sports in today's sports betting landscape.
This game is a prime example of that, and while in the end, this play could end up losing this specific week, going against this type of market perception over the course of a large sample size of wagers should rarely steer you wrong.
Best Bet: Ottawa +7.5
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