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Post-Mortems: Indy – Wk. 1

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
3 minute read
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My high-volume approach to making picks requires me to watch as many games as possible. Picture-in-picture works overtime and tablets get worn out.

Not every game gets seen as it unfolds, but I have to go back and take a look at what stood out in games I didn’t catch.

This is my post-mortem for Week 1. I can’t divulge all my secrets, so you only get a few lines per game. They’re listed in chronological order (as listed on the board):

New Mexico State at Minnesota (-22.5/49.5): True freshman Zack Annexstad made mistakes but gave guys a chance to make plays around him. He and fellow freshman Rashod Bateman have a shot at breaking school records and better start this year since teams are going to stack the box to try and stop RB Rodney Smith. The Aggies have been held scoreless in five of eight quarters thus far. Result: Minnesota 48-10. ATS: Favorite/Over

Army at Duke (-14/46): Junior QB Daniel Jones still has one more year to play after this one? David Cutcliffe has him ready and the Blue Devils are going to tough to deal with so long as he’s under center. Brittain Brown took a hard hit but otherwise looked the part of diverse threat coming out of the backfield the offense needs. The Black Knights are going to throw the ball more often as Kevin Hopkins replaces the legendary Ahmad Bradshaw and will therefore be less predictable and more difficult to defend. Result: Duke 34-14. ATS: Favorite/Over




UMass at Boston College (-20.5/62.5): The Eagles jumped all over a Minutemen squad that wanted to play fast, refusing to take a back seat against the toughest defense they’ll see until they run into Georgia to close their regular season. Credit QB Anthony Brown for playing efficiently and stud safety Lukas Denis’ pick-six to close out the first half and a 34-point second quarter for how easy a cover this wound up. UMass scored twice in the fourth in garbage time and the final score was still an eyesore. Result: BC 55-21. ATS: Favorite/Over

BYU at Arizona (-11/59): Kevin Sumlin tinkered with Khalil Tate and limited him to 14 rushing yards. That’s the easy narrative here since that was not the Heisman candidate we saw last year, the player I expected to perform more like Lamar Jackson than any other now that the former Louisville star is in the pros. Arizona can’t turn him into a pocket passer and expect to compete for a bowl bid, much less a Pac-12 title. BYU dominated at the line of scrimmage and became a tougher first foe than one would’ve expected watching tape from last season’s final few months. The Cougars entrusted Tanner Mangum not to make mistakes and will allow their bigs up front to set the tone on both sides of the ball. Result: BYU 28 Arizona 23. ATS: Underdog/Under

Old Dominion (-5/58) at Liberty: The Monarchs were favored but never led and couldn’t take advantage of the Flames suspending three defensive standouts for the opening half. Bucksot Calvert hit DJ Stubbs, a sophomore who had all of seven catches last year, for 155 yards to produce a lopsided result with the team making its FBS debut winning the second half 38-0. Turner Gill’s team made Saturday’s meeting with Army quite interesting. ODU has high hopes for sophomore QB Steven Williams and has a lot of talent back, so watching them melt down was one of Saturday’s most surprising developments. This week’s home debut against FIU doubles as its C-USA opener, so there’s great bounce-back potential. Result: Liberty 52-10. ATS: Underdog/Over

Michigan (-3/47.5) at Notre Dame: Jim Harbaugh has himself a competent passer in Shea Patterson and still went with a tired conservative game plan that allowed the Fighting Irish to dig in and get comfortable teeing off. Donovan People-Jones didn’t get enough touches and the absence of Tarik Black was indeed felt. The Karan Hibdon-led rushing attack was shut down, so credit Notre Dame’s new defensive coordinator Clark Lea for a dominant debut. ND QB Brandon Wimbush really demonstrated growth, confidently executing the offense. The wrinkle of utilizing Ian Book in the red zone since he’s the better passer should be effective. Notre Dame’s toughest opposition, Stanford and Florida State, comes into South Bend this season, so the opportunity to outperform expectations certainly exists. Result: Notre Dame 24-17. ATS: Underdog/Under



Follow Tony Mejia on Twitter at @TonyMejiaNBA or e-mail him at mejia@vegasinsider.com

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