Circa Survivor: $15 Million Guarantee Has 2025 Entries on Record Pace
Last year, Las Vegas hotel-casino owner Derek Stevens got everyone's attention by offering a $10 million guarantee for the Circa Survivor NFL contest. As it turns out, he was just warming up for this year.
In May, Stevens and his team at Circa Sports announced that the Circa Survivor guarantee for the 2025 NFL season is a whopping $15 million. And the expectation is that there will be more than enough entries, at $1,000 apiece, to cover that bill.
Read on for more insights on 2025 Circa Survivor, and check back regularly for updates throughout the season. And remember, VegasInsider is your source for all things NFL odds.
2025 Circa Survivor
Ahead of Pace
UPDATE TUESDAY, AUG. 5: To cover the $15 million guarantee, Circa Sports will need 15,000 entries, at $1,000 apiece. Considering that Circa Survivor drew 14,266 entries last year – which hiked the pot from the guaranteed $10 million up to $14.266 million – Circa isn't sweating this year's minimum entries required.
"We're [well] ahead of pace, year over year," Circa director of sportsbook operations Jeff Benson said, with more than 4,100 entries already. "I imagine we'll blast off at over 15,000 entries.
"Somewhere in the 17,500 range and up is probably a good barometer."
The high-stakes Circa Grandissimo Survivor contest is also on a strong early pace. Entry fee is $100,000, with a guaranteed purse of $1.5 million, meaning 15 entries will cover the bill. Circa is already more than two-thirds of the way there.
"We're at 11 entries, and one individual purchased two of them. Two entries could be very powerful," Benson said.
Benson expects the pot to be significantly higher than the $1.5 million guarantee.
"The response has been really positive. I think we're gonna get more people than we thought. I imagine there'll be 25-35 entries," he said. "That'd be great. If we're able to get 2 to 2.5 times [the guarantee], that'd be a pretty strong number.
"It just speaks well to the Circa Sports brand in the contest arena."
Circa Million
UPDATE TUESDAY, AUG. 5: Like last year, Circa Million will remain at a $6 million guaranteed pot. Last year, Circa Sports had to absorb modest overlay, as the contest attracted 5,817 entries at $1,000 apiece ($5.817 million).
Benson believes Circa Million could reach that 6,000 threshold this season. The contest calls for entrants to make five NFL picks each week against the spread.
"We're pacing slightly ahead of last year. I think we'll get pretty close to 6,000. If we're able to get it over 6,000, that would be awfully exciting," Benson said.
Previous Circa Survivor Updates
Click here to see our prior Circa Survivor updates
Natural Progression
UPDATE THURSDAY, MAY 22: In 2024, Circa Sports guaranteed $10 million to the winner of its Survivor contest. So the question was: Would there be 10,000 entries, to cover the cost of that guarantee?
The answer was a resounding yes, with 14,266 entries, which actually took the prize pool to $14.266 million. Eight entries went 20-for-20 to split that massive pot.
So Stevens was fine bumping this season's Circa Survivor guarantee to $15 million. Jeff Benson, director of sportsbook operations for Circa Sports, deemed it a natural progression for the contest's sixth season.
"Survivor has seen huge growth for us. We just felt growing the number from $10 million guaranteed to $15 million guaranteed makes sense for us," Benson said.
To remind: While the NFL season has only 18 weeks, Circa Survivor raises the level of difficulty by making Thanksgiving Day and Christmas their own separate weeks. So it takes 20 successful picks to survive the season.
Another Big Leap
UPDATE THURSDAY, MAY 22: The guarantee means Circa needs at least 15,000 entries to cover its cost. Benson has zero concern about hitting that number and in fact expects another big leap in the number of entries.
Each contestant can have up to 10 entries. Many contestants put in at least two or three entries, and some go the full 10. With $15 million on the line, laying out $5,000 or $10,000 might seem worth it, for what amounts to a season's worth of NFL betting – if you can stay alive.
“I think we’ll approach 20,000 in terms of number of entries," Benson said. "Last year, we grew about 5,000 entries. I could see us growing somewhere in a similar vein.”
If that happens, then the purse approaches a whopping $20 million.
Circa Grandissimo
UPDATE THURSDAY, MAY 22: This year, Circa is adding a second Survivor contest: Circa Grandissimo. It's high stakes, at $100,000 per entry, maximum two entries. And the guaranteed prize pool is $1.5 million.
Benson said the timing is right for such a contest.
"Circa Survivor has been super popular, where we’ve seen growth in the five years we’ve done it. Obviously, we didn’t want to do anything to cannibalize Circa Survivor," Benson said. "So we wanted something that was at a different price point, and that maybe felt much more exclusive and high-end.
"Obviously, people have been clamoring for a high-end Survivor contest for a long time."
And all Circa needs is 15 entries to cover the guarantee.
“I think we’ll probably get 15. We’ve already had somebody reach out who’s gonna be here [Friday], signing up for the $100,000," Benson said.
So there's now Circa Survivor, which could have 20,000 entries, and on the complete opposite end, Circa Grandissimo, with perhaps 20-30 entries. Benson is intrigued to see how the high-stakes contest plays out.
“When you’re playing against a smaller group of people than the thousands that will be in Circa Survivor, you’re thinking about the game theory that’s behind that," he said. "So it’ll be interesting to see how people approach playing Circa Grandissimo vs. how they approach Circa Survivor.”
Circa Million
UPDATE THURSDAY, MAY 22: Circa Million was the contest that started it all for Circa Sports, six seasons ago. So of course, it's back for a seventh year. Circa Million is a picks contest, five plays each week against the spread.
Like Circa Survivor, it's $1,000 per entry, maximum 10 entries. In 2024, Stevens made the Circa Million guarantee $6 million, and the number of entries came up just short of covering the cost.
So Circa decided to stick with $6 million again this year, with the season-long winner guaranteed $1 million.
"Last year, we had 5,817 entries, so not quite to that 6,000 mark. But certainly pretty big growth, up about 400 people vs. the previous year," Benson said. "I think we’ll get 6,000 this year, and then maybe we can talk about an increased guarantee in the Million in future years."
Note that all three contests are only available in Nevada. So if you want to get involved, then you've got to make the trip to Las Vegas to get signed up and to arrange for a proxy service.