F1 Monaco Grand Prix Picks, Predictions, Odds

Kevin Rogers Sports Betting Expert

7 minute read

One of the biggest F1 races of the year is set to take place this weekend with the Monaco Grand Prix on Sunday, May 29. The event, as always, is held in the streets of Monaco and will air on ESPN at 9:00 a.m. ET.

F1 MONACO GRAND PRIX PICKS & PREDICTIONS

Monaco is finally here, as the F1 standings are beginning to round into form. Monaco's own Charles Leclerc started the season strong, but Max Verstappen has been racing well for a few weeks now, winning the last three F1 races. He is also a winner in four of his last five and finally sees himself atop the World Championship leaderboard with 110 points.

Despite winning pole the last two races, Leclerc has fallen short to Verstappen in both Miami and Spain. Prior to those two races, Leclerc won the two races he won the pole in too (Australia and Bahrain). Three of the four races Max won he did not win the pole position, so does qualifying really matter? Past these two it does, but if picking a winner between the two top drivers this year my money is with Verstappen - who looked rubbish in Miami until raceday when he turned it on. Also, Red Bull has won two of the last three races in Monaco - as Sergio Perez actually notched Spain's fastest lap and has also finished on the podium in three of his last four races.

Red Bull enters this race with a lot to like about their drivers in 2022. Red Bull at +120 to win the race seems like an excellent bet, as oddsmakers are giving Red Bull and their drivers plus-value and playing on Leclerc being the hometown favorite to win. Leclerc hasn't had the best luck in the streets of Monaco however, so if betting the top heavy leaders of F1 I would slightly lean with Max and Team Red Bull. Verstappen is currently +137 with bet365 to win, Perez is currently +900 for the fastest lap, Team Red Bull is +120 to win and Team Red Bull is +150 to see the race's fastest lap. Red Bull has seen a driver win fastest lap in three straight races.

F1 MONACO GRAND PRIX BETTING RESOURCES

• Date: Sunday, May 29, 2022
• TV-Time: ESPN, 9:00 a.m. ET
• Venue: Circuit de Monaco
• Location: Monte Carlo, Monaco (and La Condamine)
• Distance: 161 miles
• Laps: 78
• More F1 Futures Odds

Updated on 12/30/2024

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F1 MONACO GRAND PRIX BETTING ANALYSIS

There is the thought, that if all hell breaks out, Max and Leclerc cause some chaos in the race's first right hand turn. This is a very narrow circuit, and there is typically chaos to start F1 races more than any other time - particularly around the first turn when drivers are trying to gain positioning. While although that, and multiple tight turns in a hugely important race would make one think the Safety Car - Yes to appear is a good bet, it actually isn't.

Other than the expensive odds, the last three races in Monaco has seen only one driver fail to finish. So the safety car to not appear at +700 might be a good long shot to consider if you have any house money to try. The virtual safety car at +250 to fail to appear is also worth a shot if the trend sticks of only one driver failing to finish in Monaco over the last three races there.

We've touched on Checo already, but one important trend to consider is the he has finished in second place three of the last four races. So although the fastest lap is there for him and Red Bull to consider, there is a solid plus-value bet to consider Checo finishes on the podium at +175. What about Team Mercedes? As Juan Pablo Montoya says, 'They're coming.'

For George Russell this may be true, as he has raced nicely this season and finally got on to the podium in Spain. He has seen a Top 6 result in all six races this season, and Mercedes is only getting better as the season prolongs. Lewis Hamilton has been hanging around as well, seeing a Top 6 finish in four of his last six races. Russell has had the better results this season, but the narrow circuit of Monaco might give Hamilton the edge for experience.

The Top 6 results are expensive for both Mercedes drivers however, so pass on them for now until we see more consistency from Mercedes on raceday. Of the two however, Russell to reach the podium is the best Mercedes bet to consider but I would stay away from the silver and teal team for Monaco. Finally, Guanyu Zhou has failed to finish two straight races, and has odds at +225 to fail classification. Feel free to test those waters as well, but below the bets I would consider based on the trends, odds and form of these drivers.

F1 MONACO GRAND PRIX BEST BETS

• Max Verstappen to Win (+137)
• Sergio Perez Fastest Lap (+900)
• Red Bull Fastest Lap (+150)
• Guanyu Zhou Fails Classification (+225)

Kevin Rogers

Kevin has been handicapping professionally since 2007 at VegasInsider before shifting to ScoresAndOdds. He focuses on MLB, NFL, college football, NBA, college basketball, and NHL and mainly uses trends, systems, and situations as his top handicapping angles. More from Kevin Rogers