NASCAR Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race Picks, Preview

NASCAR Cup Series
Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race Picks

The best aspect of Saturday’s Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway is that four of the 16 championship-eligible drivers will be eliminated from competing in the Playoff’s Round of 12 which begins next week at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

None of the drivers want to get chopped, so they will do just about anything to scratch and claw for a win.

There will be little fights for position everywhere all race long with only three drivers having already clinched passage to the next round. With the tight surroundings of Bristol’s high-banked half-mile layout where there’s little room to move among the 40 drivers, a few drivers are going to have their feelings hurt when they get punted for position and we should see some fisticuffs after the race.

It’s a high-intensity moment, and not just for the Playoff drivers trying to advance.

Long Shot Look - Mr. Jones

There are a few drivers like Erik Jones who don’t have a ride for 2021 yet and they need to use these next eight races of 2020 trying to lure an offer. Jones, who is offered by William Hill sportsbooks at attractive 30/1 odds to win, has the best shot among lame-duck drivers.

He’s got Joe Gibbs Racing equipment, he’s won twice at Bristol in the Xfinity Series, and has three top-fives in seven Cup races there, including fifth-place in the May race.

No driver has been announced for the 2021 No. 48 ride for Hendrick Motorsports. Maybe a win Saturday night could get him an interview.

Because of all the above, I have a bet on him this week.

• Date: Saturday, Sept. 19, 2020
• Venue: Bristol Motor Speedway
• Location: Bristol, Tennessee
• Television-Time: NBCSN, 7:30 p.m. ET

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook made Denny Hamlin and Chase Elliott co-favorites at 9/2 odds (Bet $100 to win $450) to win. Hamlin won the fall race last season, led a race-high 131 laps in the May race, and was fifth in the July All-Star Race held there.

However, he has yet to score a top-10 in the two Playoff races at Darlington and Richmond, two of his best tracks. Hamlin knows issues that need to be cleaned up.

“We need to make sure we don’t make any mistakes on pit road or elsewhere,” he said. “We had some pit road issues the last two races, and both kept us from contending even though we had a fast car.

Our team will work this week to get the best and fastest car out on the track and will hope to end up in Victory Lane.”

NASCAR Cup Odds - Bristol

• Denny Hamlin +450
• Kevin Harvick +450
• Martin Truex Jr. +450
• Joey Logano +700
• Brad Keselowski +800
• Kyle Busch +800
• Chase Elliott +900
• Kurt Busch +2200
• Ryan Blaney +2500
• Jimmie Johnson +2500
• More NASCAR Futures
• (Odds Subject to Change)

Handicapping Bristol Night Race

Hamlin has two wins and nine top-five finishes in 29 Cup starts at Bristol and should have more success Saturday night.

“You always have confidence returning to a place where you’ve had success, and Bristol is no different,” Hamlin said. “We can definitely win there again.”

Elliott won the first two stages and led 88 laps in the May race and got tangled up in the tight confines with five laps to go while leading and finished 22nd on the lead lap. When the series came back for the All-Star Race he led 60 laps, grabbed the checkered flag, and a big $1 million check.

NASCAR is using the race package with engines producing 750 horsepower. This will be the 10th race using it, including the non-points All-Star Race, and Elliott has been a star with it notching two wins (Daytona road course). He was fifth with it last week at Richmond.

Two straight for the #2 Team?

The driver that has had the most success with the 750 hp package isn’t Hamlin or Kevin Harvick who only has one of their wins using it (both at Dover), it’s Brad Keselowski who is listed at 8/1 odds to win. I’ll take that. He should be the favorite based on three dominant wins with this package. That’s three wins in nine races, including his third Bristol win in May.

The 750 hp package is used five times during the 10-race playoff and the most important of them all is Phoenix Raceway where the Championship 4 will race for the 2020 title. Team Penske won there with Joey Logano in March, Keselowski was 11th after leading 60 laps.

If you’ve been reading my stuff over the years you know how I feel about the trio of flat tracks at Phoenix, Richmond, and New Hampshire. And every year it holds true if a driver does well on one they’ll do well on the other. So far this season the series has raced on all three and Team Penske won them all.

The part I find most interesting and why you should run to your favorite sportsbook to bet Keselowski to win the Championship (SuperBook 8/1) is because he used the same chassis to win at New Hampshire and Richmond and said in a post-race interview after his Richmond win that he’ll be saving that car for Phoenix. Most laps led (184) in New Hampshire win and most laps led (192) in Richmond win. Same car.

Despite what Harvick and Hamlin did by combining to win 14 of the 28 races this season, Keselowski is the star of the 750 hp package and probably should be favored to win it all because of it. Seriously, no joke.

Past seasons showed us that because Homestead-Miami Speedway was the Championship race, being the best on 1.5-mile tracks proved to be the pathway to a championship season. But now it's the short tracks that matter most and those who do the best on them, or the team that focused the most attention to being fast on them. That team is Team Penske.

Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race
Top-5 Finish Prediction

• 1) #2 Brad Keselowski (8/1) - Bet Now at DraftKings
• 2) #11 Denny Hamlin (9/2) - Bet Now at DraftKings
• 3) #22 Joey Logano (8/1)
• 4) #20 Erik Jones (30/1)
• 5) #12 Ryan Blaney (10/1)

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