NASCAR Xfinity 500 Picks, Predictions, Odds

Kevin Rogers Sports Betting Expert

2 minute read

We’ve come to the end of the road, almost. 

Just two races remain on the season, and Sunday’s Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway’s flat half-mile paperclip layout will be the final race of the Round of 8 in the playoffs.

Four drivers will get chopped from the playoffs after the race and four drivers will comprise of the Championship 4 and race for the season championship next week at Phoenix Raceway. 

Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell are already guaranteed spots in the Championship 4, as William Byron and Ryan Blaney are the favorites among the six remaining drivers to finish off the quartet.

Bell locked up a chance at the championship next week with a win last week at Homestead, marking only his second victory of the season.

Larson was victorious in the first race at Martinsville this season by claiming the NOCO 500 in mid-April. Bell is seeking back-to-back wins at Martinsville as he captured the Xfinity 500 last October.

XFINITY 500 TOP-5 FINISH PREDICTION

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #12 Ryan Blaney (12/1)
2) #48 Alex Bowman (40/1)
3) #22 Joey Logano (16/1)
4) #18 Kyle Busch (16/1)
5) #11 Denny Hamlin (3/1)

XFINITY 500 PICKS & PREDICTIONS

Blaney is on the verge of first appearance in the Championship 4 as long as nothing goes sideways on Sunday. In his last nine races at Martinsville, Blaney has placed 7th or higher seven times, but is still seeking his first career win at this track.

Alex Bowman has had a disappointing season, but the driver of the #48 Chevrolet has put together decent historical numbers at Martinsville. Bowman finished 11th in the April race at Martinsville, but won the Xfinity 500 in 2021, while also putting together a pair of 6th-place finishes in 2020.

Joey Logano hasn't won at this track since 2018, but he finished right behind Larson in the April race, while posting four finishes of 4th place or higher since 2020 at Martinsville.

Kyle Busch went through a stretch of 12 of 14 races at Martinsville from 2015 through 2022 of Top-10 finishes. Unfortunately, Busch has taken a step back in Virginia recently with finishes of 29th and 21st in his last two at Martinsville.

XFINITY 500 BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Sunday, October 29, 2023
Venue: Martinsville Speedway
Location: Ridgeway, Virginia
Distance: 263 miles
Laps: 500
Network-Time: NBC - 2:00 p.m.
Defending Champion: Christopher Bell

XFINITY 500 BETTING ODDS

• Denny Hamlin +300
• Kyle Larson +600
• William Byron +800
• Brad Keselowski +900
• Martin Truex, Jr. +1000
• Ryan Blaney +1200
• Tyler Reddick +1400
• Joey Logano +1600
• Kyle Busch +1600
• Christopher Bell +2000
• Chase Elliott +2000
• Kevin Harvick +2000
• Chris Buescher +2500
• Aric Almirola +2800
• Chase Briscoe +3300
• Ty Gibbs +3300
• Alex Bowman +4000
• Ross Chastain +4000
• Ryan Preece +4000
• Bubba Wallace +4000
• Daniel Suarez +6600
• Austin Dillon +10000
• Erik Jones +10000
• Todd Gilliand +20000
• Carson Hocevar +20000
• A.J. Allmendinger +25000
• Michael McDowell +30000
• Austin Cindric +30000
• Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. +30000
• Harrison Burton +50000
• Justin Haley +50000
• Corey Lajoie +100000
• Ryan Newman +200000
• Ty Dillon +300000
• B.J. McLeod +300000
• J.J. Yeley +300000

XFINITY 500 WINNERS

• 2022 - Christopher Bell
• 2021 - Alex Bowman
• 2020 - Chase Elliott
• 2019 - Martin Truex, Jr.
• 2018 - Joey Logano
• 2017 - Kyle Busch
• 2016 - Jimmie Johnson
• 2015 - Jeff Gordon
• 2014 - Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
• 2013 - Jeff Gordon

Kevin Rogers

Kevin has been handicapping professionally since 2007 at VegasInsider before shifting to ScoresAndOdds. He focuses on MLB, NFL, college football, NBA, college basketball, and NHL and mainly uses trends, systems, and situations as his top handicapping angles. More from Kevin Rogers