2024 Oscars Best Bets | Expert Picks for 96th Academy Awards

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

9 minute read

The 96th Academy Awards will take center stage at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles tonight, Sunday, March 10, at 7:00 p.m. ET on ABC.

As we’ve occasionally seen in the past, this year’s show is expected to be dominated by one film in particular with Oppenheimer listed as a heavy favorite to take home at least seven awards including Best Picture, Best Lead Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Director and more.

With that in mind, however, there’s still plenty of value on the board at this year’s Oscars – which even includes a few betting angles that allow you to target Oppenheimer at a reasonable price.

Let’s dive into my top five best bets for the 2024 Oscars.

2024 Oscars Best Bets

• Best Picture - American Fiction +8000
• Best Lead Actress - Emma Stone (Poor Things) +125
• Best Lead Actor - Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) +600
• Best Visual Effects - The Creator +125
• Best Adapted Screenplay - Oppenheimer +200

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Best Picture Prediction

Pick: American Fiction +8000 (or longshot of choice)

Best Picture is usually the most popular betting market on the board at the Oscars.

This year, however, the Best Picture race appears to be sewn up with Oppenheimer listed at -5000 to win the top award of the evening – making this market practically un-bettable.

With that in mind though, the oddsmakers have set a line that implies a 98% chance of Oppenheimer winning Best Picture. And while Oppenheimer has received the top honors at pretty much every major show throughout this awards season – and rightfully so – I still believe the 3-hour biopic is heavily overpriced in the Best Picture market due to its general popularity, and should actually be priced around -400 (80%).

Oppenheimer is a masterclass in all facets of filmmaking, and it feels like it’s been a long-time coming for one of the world’s top directors of the last few decades, Christopher Nolan, who’s directed several fan-favorite, Oscar-caliber films including Memento, Inception, Dunkirk, the Dark Knight – and that’s just the tip of the iceberg.

Throughout this awards season, all the signals have pointed toward Oppenheimer winning Best Picture. However, if you look back historically, it doesn’t quite fit the traditional mould for a Best Picture winner. Oppenheimer is a big-budget biopic about a historical figure that was adapted from a book – plus, it made $957 million at the box office.

The Academy tends to lean toward relatively low-budget films that are far less popular with the masses. The last five Best Picture winners: Everything Everywhere All At Once, CODA, Nomadland, Parasite, Green Book. 

I believe movies such as Anatomy of a Fall (+4000) and American Fiction (+8000) are best-suited to pull off the upset. Both movies had a budget of less than $10 million and made less than $32 million at the box office – two very well written films with strong emotional beats and fascinating social commentary that makes you ponder them long after watching.

There’s plenty of value to be found in Oppenheimer in other markets. But if you are steadfast in wanting to bet the Best Picture market, my best advice is to sprinkle a little bit of cash on your favorite longshot.

At the Oscars, no movie is worth betting at -5000. There’s too many subjective factors at play. So you might as well roll the dice on your favorite nominee at long odds and treat it like a lottery ticket.

I will be sprinkling on American Fiction, the odds-on favorite to win Best Adapted Screenplay, and my personal favorite of the Best Picture nominees; but pick your poison.

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Best Lead Actress Prediction

Pick: Emma Stone (Poor Things) +125

This year’s Best Lead Actress race is easily the most competitive of the acting markets – with Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) listed as the favorite at -175, followed closely by Emma Stone (Poor Things) at +125. 

Stone and Gladstone were neck-and-neck for most of the year, and the race slowly began to grow tighter when both actresses won in their respective categories at the Golden Globes. But within the last few weeks, Gladstone has emerged as the stand-alone favorite after picking up her second major win at the SAG Awards – and this time, it was a win over Stone. 

However, I’m not so sure the right person is favored in this category.

Stone’s performance in Poor Things is easily the most memorable – and for my money, the best – of the year. Poor Things is a Frankenstein-esque tale about a woman brought back to life in Victorian London, and the entire movie rides on Stone’s tour de force performance as the resurrected character discovers womanhood.

Poor Things allows Stone to showcase a wide range of talents in a very unique way. It’s an excellent comedic performance. It’s a breathtaking romantic performance (and brave). It’s a heartfelt emotional performance – and there’s absolutely no question as to who the “lead” of this Oscar-caliber movie is. It’s Emma Stone as Bella Baxter.

Whereas, on the other hand, Gladstone may be the heart-and-soul of Killers of the Flower Moon – and one of the few characters in the film that you can actually root for. But as strong as her performance is, I would argue that Gladstone is not a “lead” in this movie – and on top of that, the bedridden nature of the role doesn’t allow her to showcase versatility quite as much as the colorful Stone in Poor Things.

Leonardo DiCaprio is featured in 110 minutes of Killers of the Flower Moon – the undeniable lead of the film, and he did not receive a nomination. Gladstone has the second-most screentime at 56 minutes, and then Robert De Niro has the third-most at 48 minutes – which equated to a Best Supporting Actor nomination for De Niro; not Best Lead Actor. 

For what it’s worth, I would actually rank Sandra Huller’s performance (Anatomy of a Fall) ahead of Gladstone as well. Huller is featured in nearly every frame of Anatomy of a Fall, another top-notch film – and she delivers a very complex, layered performance that hits you square in the face when the credits finally roll at the end.

Huller’s performance isn’t quite as versatile or vibrant compared to Stone. But it’s very strong – and I wouldn’t be totally shocked if her name gets called this Sunday at +4000.

Best Lead Actor Prediction

Pick: Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) +600

From now until my last breath, whenever somebody mentions the name J. Robert Oppenheimer, the first image that pops into my head will always be Cillian Murphy in a brown jacket and a fedora smoking a pipe – and that general sentiment is exactly why Murphy has been stockpiling trophies throughout this awards season.

In Oppenheimer, Murphy seamlessly transforms into the scientist credited with the creation of the atomic bomb, and the role demands an incredibly nuanced performance. Oppenheimer is constantly dealing with deep internal conflict and sharp external conflict due to a variety of different circumstances throughout the movie – and Murphy allows the audience to feel each and every emotion through a relatively tame performance.

Personally, if I had a vote, I would vote for Murphy – but I don’t. 

I’m a gambler. And as a gambler, I think there’s actually a decent amount of value on Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) in this category.

In the Holdovers, Giamatti delivers a powerhouse performance alongside Da’Vine Joy Randolph, who’s listed as a massive -5000 to win Best Supporting Actress, as he portrays a boarding school teacher tasked with watching over kids that have been left behind during the holiday break. The role allows Giamatti to flex his acting muscles in so many different departments – whether he’s berating students with harsh criticisms or woefully explaining why he smells like fish to his co-workers.

Giamatti has taken home a handful of awards for the role already. Most notably, he won Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy at the Golden Globes, which was a category Murphy did not compete in – and prior to that, he actually beat out Murphy at the Critics Choice Awards and some of the other less-important shows early in the season before Murphy began to separate with wins at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and SAG Awards.

At a betting line of -1000, the oddsmakers are implying a 91% chance of Murphy winning Best Actor – and while the SAG Awards are usually the best indicator for Oscars in the acting department, I believe Giamatti has received enough love throughout this awards season to warrant a play at +600.

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Best Visual Effects Prediction

Pick: The Creator (+125)

One of this year’s most-beloved niche films was Godzilla Minus One – and it truly is awesome, still holding a 98% on Rotten Tomatoes while managing to make $107 million at the box office. 

So fans of the movie rejoiced when it received an Oscar nomination for Best Visual Effects, and it’s listed as the betting favorite at -175.

Unfortunately though, the category isn’t “Best Movie With Cool Visual Effects.” It’s just “Best Visual Effects” – and at multiple points throughout Godzilla Minus One, it becomes very clear that the budget for the movie was less than $15 million, despite having some visually stunning sequences with the kaiju in open water.

I believe this award is actually a toss-up between two movies that are far less beloved by the masses – The Creator (+125) and Napoleon (+2000).

Say whatever you want about the historical inaccuracy or goofy nature of Napoleon, but Ridley Scott has proven yet again that he’s a master at directing epic battle sequences and using scenery to dramatically widen the scope of a film – also the director of Gladiator – and push comes to shove, I still contend that Napoleon managed to capture lightning in a bottle a few times and produced some of the best VFX scenes of the year.

However, the attention to detail in Napoleon is far less precise than the VFX work in The Creator. 

Every single frame of The Creator transports you to the post-apocalyptic AI-driven world dreamed up by Rogue One director Gareth Edwards. And not only do the effects look phenomenal on an $80 million budget, but oftentimes Edwards solely uses VFX to communicate crucial themes of the story.

Whether it’s the design of the artificial intelligence characters or the variety of high-tech gadgets scattered throughout John David Washington’s living quarters, all of the VFX work in The Creator is very intentional and well-done – so I think we’ll see it take home the hardware as it stands as the best balance between the budget restrictions of Godzilla Minus One and the grandiosity of Napoleon.

Best Adapted Screenplay Prediction

Pick: Oppenheimer +200

If you want to bet on Oppenheimer at this year’s Oscars, the best value on the board appears to be in the category of Best Adapted Screenplay – which by no means is a sure-thing, but at least it feels like a reasonable bet as opposed to the chalky alternatives.

Oftentimes, the Academy tries to spread out the award recognition a little bit so one movie doesn’t end up winning everything – and in the past, one place where they have done that is in the screenplay categories.

Oppenheimer is the heavy favorite to win Best Picture. So instead of awarding it with both Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay, the oddsmakers believe that American Fiction could be the beneficiary of this trend – currently listed as the betting favorite to win Best Adapted Screenplay at -188.

However, if you are somebody that’s bullish on Oppenheimer – and like me, you don’t see value in betting it in the Best Picture market, why not bet on it to win Best Adapted Screenplay at +200?

Last year, Everything Everywhere All At Once totally dominated last year’s Oscars – taking home seven awards including Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay, Best Director, Best Editing, and honors in three of the four main acting categories.

So who’s to say that Oppenheimer won’t do the same thing?

The way in which Oppenheimer’s screenplay weaves together three storylines from three different time periods while intertwining and connecting themes is incredibly impressive. 

One could even argue that the biggest strength of the movie is how it fundamentally reads on paper. So I’ll go ahead and lock in Oppenheimer to win Best Adapted Screenplay given the possibility of Nolan running the table.

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson