CFL Betting Notes – Week 7
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
The underdogs cashed three of four winning tickets against the spread in the CFL this past weekend starting with Saskatchewan’s 31-20 stunning straight-up upset over Hamilton as a 10-point road underdog on Thursday night.
Friday’s action saw British Columbia cover as a seven-point underdog on the road in a tough 29-25 loss to Ottawa. In the first of two games on Saturday, Winnipeg came through as a 3 ½-point road favorite with a 38-20 victory against Toronto. However, later that night Calgary could not cover as a heavy 19 ½-point home favorite in a 25-8 victory against Montreal.
Thursday, July 26
Edmonton Eskimos (3-2 SU, 1-4 ATS) at Montreal Alouettes (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS)
Point-Spread: Edmonton -9
Total: 48
Game Overview
Edmonton went into last week’s bye with a SU split against Toronto, but it failed to cover in either game as a favorite on the closing line. Heading into this Thursday’s game against Montreal, the Eskimos will look to exploit a Montreal defense that has given up the most points in the CFL over the first five games. Eskimos’ quarterback Mike Reilly leads the league in total passing yards (1,648) and he is tied for the most scoring strikes (nine).
With Montreal’s 2018 season heading in the wrong direction again after winning just three games SU in 2017, it pulled out the stops on Sunday night with a blockbuster trade to land Johnny Manziel as its new starting quarterback. He was riding the pines in Hamilton since coming to that team in the offseason as a free agent. It is too early to know what kind of a role he will play in this game or what impact he may have on the betting lines, but it immediately became ‘must-see’ TV in a 7:30 p.m. start at Percival-Molson Stadium.Betting Trends
-- Edmonton has won four of its last five road games against Montreal SU while going a perfect 5-0 SU. The total has gone OVER in seven in the last 10 meetings.
Friday, July 27
Toronto Argonauts (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS)
Point-Spread: Winnipeg -10 ½
Total: 53
Game Overview
Toronto has some major issues of its own at the quarterback position in the absence of an injured Ricky Ray. In last week’s loss to Winnipeg on the Argonauts’ home field, James Franklin completed 58.3 percent of his 36 passing attempts for 151 yards. He could not get his team into the end zone through the air against one interception. On the year, he has two touchdown throws and three picks.
The Blue Bombers are the only CFL team to play in the first six weeks of the season and they remain one of the toughest teams to figure out. They are 3-1 ATS when closing as favorites and 2-0 ATS in their only two games played at home. Matt Nichols played his best game of the season last week with 245 yards passing and two scores while completing 70.4 percent of his 27 passing attempts. Andrew Harris had a huge game running the ball against Toronto with 161 rushing yards on 27 carries.
Betting Trends
-- With last week’s win, Winnipeg is now a perfect 5-0 SU in its last five games against Toronto with a 4-1 record ATS. The total has gone OVER in all five games.
Saturday, July 28
Ottawa RedBlacks (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS)
Point-Spread: Hamilton -4
Total: 54 ½
Game Overview
As long as Ottawa is not playing Calgary, it is a good pick to win its game SU. Last week against British Columbia, Trevor Harris found his form with 363 yards passing and one touchdown throw on 30 completions. He put the ball up 44 times. The top target in that win was Brad Sinopoli with 11 receptions for 171 yards and a score. William Powell ran for a team-high 50 yards on 14 carries while catching another seven balls for 61 yards through the air.
Jeremiah Masoli has played well enough at quarterback to send Johnny Football to greener pastures in Montreal, but his team still needs to play with better consistency. In last week’s loss to Saskatchewan as double-digit favorites at home, the Tiger-Cats let things slip away in the third quarter after getting outscored 21-3. Masoli ended that game with just 184 yards through the air and 24 more yards on the ground as part of the offense’s 79 total yards rushing.
Betting Trends
-- Ottawa has a SU 6-2 edge in the last eight meetings and it is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games against the Tiger-Cats. The total has gone OVER in five of the last seven meetings.
Calgary Stampeders (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) at Saskatchewan Roughriders (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS)
Point-Spread: Calgary -7
Total: 47 ½
Game Overview
Calgary is off to its best start in the last three seasons after going to the CFL title game in each of those first two campaigns. Last week’s win over Montreal was more methodical and less flashy on offense. However, the bigger story this season with the Stampeders is a shutdown defense that has allowed a grand total of just 46 points in five games. It is going to be hard for any other team in the league to keep pace if this unit keeps playing at such a high level.
The Roughriders have grinded their way to a winning record in the West following a 1-2 start both SU and ATS. Their back-to-back victories against Hamilton helped atone for a bad loss at home to Montreal on June 30 as heavy 10 ½-point favorites. Brandon Bridge and David Watford combined for 178 yards passing in last week’s road win against the Tiger-Cats, but Saskatchewan racked up 218 yards on the ground.
Betting Trends
-- Calgary has won seven of the last eight meetings SU, including four of the last five games played in Saskatchewan. The total has stayed UNDER in the last five games between these West Division foes.
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