2025 March Madness: 3 Tips To Gain An Edge on Your Brackets

Editor’s Note: This guest post is from PoolGenius, the industry leader in data-driven NCAA bracket picks, projections, and tools. Since 2017, PoolGenius subscribers have won over $2.5 million in bracket pool prizes, with 52% winning at least one pool prize per year on average.

Filling out a March Madness bracket is a yearly tradition for millions. Some go with their gut, some pick based on school loyalty, and others try to outsmart the field by predicting the perfect Cinderella story. 

But if you actually want to win your pool, you need more than just luck—you need strategy.

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3 Tips To Gain an Edge in Your March Madness Bracket

These three key strategies will help you make sharper March Madness picks and maximize your odds of winning.

1. Know Your Pool’s Scoring System

Most people ignore this step, but your scoring format should shape your entire strategy.

• Traditional (1-2-4-8-16-32) Scoring: Late-round games matter the most. Your champion pick is worth as much as 32 first-round games combined, so optimizing the Final Four is far more important than picking perfect first-round upsets.
• Flat Scoring (1-2-3-4-5-6): Early-round accuracy is much more important. Picking too many low-risk favorites will likely sink your bracket, so be willing to take more calculated risks early.
• Upset Bonus Pools: If your pool rewards underdog wins, you need to target undervalued lower seeds with the highest potential. Blindly picking trendy upsets won’t work—you need to find where the public is over- or underrating a team’s chances.

If you’re filling out your bracket without considering your pool’s scoring system, you’re already at a disadvantage. 

2. Adjust Strategy Based on Pool Size

Not all brackets are created equal. The best bracket for a 10-person office pool is entirely different from what works in a 500-person high-stakes pool with upset bonuses.

The number of people in your pool should dictate your risk level (along with the scoring system noted above):

• Small Pools (Under 30 Entries): Stick with the favorites—wild picks are more likely to backfire. Don’t overthink early upsets—your biggest edge is picking the right Final Four and champion. Let your opponents make mistakes—playing conservatively often works.
• Medium Pools (30-100 Entries): Balance safe picks with a few strategic contrarian plays. Find one or two key upsets to differentiate your bracket without going overboard. Avoid the most popular champion pick if there’s another strong option.
• Large Pools (100+ Entries): You need more risk; taking the obvious chalk picks won’t be enough. Identify overrated teams that are popular in public brackets but have weaker odds. Consider an undervalued but realistic champion to break away from the field.

3. Strategically Pick Upsets & Know When to Take Risks

Everyone loves picking a Cinderella story. But most upsets don’t happen, and picking the wrong ones can wreck your bracket.

The trick is knowing when to go against the public with smart, high-value upset picks. 

• First-round chaos isn’t as common as you might think. While No. 12 seeds do upset No. 5 seeds, it doesn’t happen every year; some years, all the No. 5 seeds are significantly stronger. No. 13 or No. 14 seed upsets typically occur about once per tournament, but banking on multiple long shots usually backfires.
• Elite Eight and Final Four picks are where it really matters. Public pick data helps identify strong teams that are being underrated—teams that should be picked more often but aren’t. 

At the same time, avoiding overhyped favorites picked too frequently relative to their actual odds can be the key to winning your pool.

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If you’re thinking, "That all sounds great, but how am I supposed to juggle all those tips while filling out my bracket?"—don’t worry, PoolGenius solves that problem for you.

Optimizing a bracket isn’t just about picking winners. It’s about finding the best risk/reward balance for your pool, calculating which picks actually give you an edge over the competition, and using math—not gut instinct—to make decisions.

PoolGenius does all of that automatically. By factoring in your pool size and scoring system, along with real-time public pick trends, it builds the highest expected-value bracket possible. All of that in under a minute. 

If you’re serious about winning, don’t leave your bracket to chance—get expert picks designed to maximize your shot at victory.

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You can also check out our March Madness futures page to get the latest odds as the Big Dance is going on.