Liberty vs. Oklahoma State Predictions, Odds, Preview

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

Mar. 19, 2021

Thom Cunningham
NCAA BK Expert
VegasInsider.com

Liberty vs. Oklahoma State Predictions

Despite Liberty winning a March Madness game in 2019 and playing good teams close this season, Oklahoma State and Cade Cunningham have a ton of momentum. Although the Cowboys should win SU, the spread is a bit high for an opponent who has covered 16 games this season.

The point total has more conviction in it, opening at a somewhat low 140.5. The schools have combined for an O/U record of 29-20-3, so feel free to assume at least one team eclipses 70 points while the other team stays within the given point spread (10 points max).

• Score Prediction: Oklahoma State 75 Liberty 66
• Best Bets - Side: Liberty +9.5
• Best Bets - Total: OVER 140.5

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Liberty vs. Oklahoma State Betting Odds

Line Movements

• Spread: Oklahoma State -9.5
• Total: 140.5
• Money-Line: Oklahoma State -420 Liberty +340

Odds to Win NCAA Tournament

• Liberty 250/1
• Oklahoma State 16/1

Odds to Win Midwest Region

• Liberty 80/1
• Oklahoma State 4/1

Odds Subject to Change

First Round Predictions

Friday's Early Action - Mar. 19 7 vs. 10 3 vs. 14 1 vs. 16 6 vs. 11 2 vs. 15 1 vs. 16 8 vs. 9 5 vs. 12

Handicapping Liberty vs. Oklahoma State

Liberty is just 3-2 on the ATS over its last five games, so despite an impressive ATS record this season they are 50/50 at best in recent games. The Flames are 3-1-1 on the O/U in its last five games however, while the Cowboys are 4-1 over their last five games.

It's easy to side with Cunningham and the Cowboys with how they ended the season, but Liberty upset Mississippi State in the 2019 tournament. Although I don't think Liberty is as good as it was a year ago, they can compete and cover a double-digit spread.

As stated, the point total market has more conviction in it based on point total trends for both schools. Handicapping the O/U instead of the point spread is recommended for this game, with the schools combining to go OVER in seven of their last 10 games. If you must wager the point spread, lean Liberty although I can't argue if you would rather go with Cunningham.

• Region: Midwest
• Matchup: 4 vs. 13
• Venue: Indiana Farmers Coliseum
• Location: Indianapolis, Indiana
• Date: Mar. 19, 2021
• TV-Time: TBS - 6:25 p.m. (ET)

Handicapping Resources: March Madness Central | NCAA Consensus Picks

Betting Stats & Analysis - Liberty Flames

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

Liberty can score buckets, averaging a 58.4% field goal percentage that ranks sixth nationally and a 39.1% three-point percentage that ranks seventh nationally. They also hit their free throws, hitting about 10 of 13 per game which averages the 22nd-best free throw percentage nationally.

Most shots are open for Liberty, great at finding the open man with 15.9 assists per game. That total ranks 32nd in the nation. The big weakness for this team is on defense, averaging just 4.6 steals per game (ranks 330th) and 2.3 blocks per game (285th). Add that with their lackluster rebounding (33.4 per game ranks 266th), Liberty will have to limit missed shots and hope Cunningham and Co. have an off night shooting.

Seed: 13
Conference: Atlantic Sun
Bid: Auto

• SU: 23-5
• ATS: 16-8
• O/U: 12-11-1

• Current Form (Last 5): 5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-1-1 O/U
• Notable Wins: None

• PS/G: 74.9 (86th)
• PA/G: 59.6 (3rd)
• Off Rtg: 116 (6th)
• Def Rtg: 92.4 (23rd)

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Betting Stats & Analysis - Oklahoma State Cowboys

Oklahoma State is one of the hottest teams in the country right now, and seemingly fully healthy. The Cowboys have dealt with a changing lineup up until the Big 12 Tournament, and now with a few games under their belt at full capacity this is a dangerous team for March.

The Cowboys can match the point scoring of Liberty, hitting 21.3 two-pointers per game which ranks 28th nationally. They also make 15.3 free throws per game which ranks 43rd in the nation. Unlike Liberty, Oklahoma State can rebound, steal and block shots. The Cowboys rank 40th nationally in rebounds per game (38.6), 82nd nationally in steals per game (7.3) and 42nd nationally in blocks per game (4.4).

Seed: 4
Conference: Big 12
Bid: At-large

• SU: 20-8
• ATS: 17-10-1
• O/U: 17-9-2

• Current Form (Last 5): 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS, 4-1 O/U
• Notable Wins: Wichita State, Kansas, Arkansas, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma (x2), West Virginia (x2), Baylor

• PS/G: 77.1 (51st)
• PA/G: 72.9 (249th)
• Off Rtg: 103.6 (144th)
• Def Rtg: 98 (116th)

First Round Predictions

Friday's Late Action - Mar. 19 4 vs. 13 8 vs. 9 2 vs. 15 4 vs. 13 7 vs. 10 6 vs. 11 3 vs. 14 5 vs. 12

Key Players to Watch

Darius McGhee is the leader for Liberty, averaging over 15 points per game and scoring at least 21 in five of his last seven games. He is also coming off an eight-rebound game before seeing five rebounds and nine assists in the Atlantic Sun semifinal game.

Cunningham is the obvious player to watch for Oklahoma State, projected to be the No. 1 pick in the 2021 NBA Draft. However, Avery Anderson and Isaac Likekele are the glue that holds this team together. Also keep an eye on Kalib Boone, a forward with both dunking and shot making ability.

• LIB - Darius McGhee (15.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG)
• LIB - Chris Parker (10.3 PPG)

• OKST - Cade Cunningham (20.2 PPG, 6.3 RPG)
• OKST - Avery Anderson (11.7 PPG, 4 RPG)

March Madness Records & Trends

Liberty Flames

• All-Time Record: 1-4
• Last Appearance: 2019
• Deepest Run: Second Round (2019)

-- Liberty has lost four of its last five NCAA Tournament games.
-- Liberty has been eliminated by an ACC school in two of its last four NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Liberty has covered the spread in four of its last five games when playing as the underdog.
-- Liberty has covered the spread in six of its last eight games.
-- Liberty has gone OVER the point total in three of its last four games.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

• All-Time Record: 38-27
• Last Appearance: 2017
• Deepest Run: Final Four (2004) - also 1946 champion

-- Oklahoma State has lost seven of its last eight NCAA Tournament games.
-- Oklahoma State has lost its first game in five straight NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Oklahoma State has failed to reach the Sweet 16 in nine of its last 11 NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Oklahoma State has covered the spread in eight of its last nine games.
-- Oklahoma State has gone OVER the point total in seven of its last nine games.

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