North Texas vs. Purdue Predictions, Odds, Preview

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

Mar. 19, 2021

Jonathan Willis
NCAA BK Expert
VegasInsider.com

North Texas vs. Purdue Predictions

The Mean Green are hoping the fourth time is the charm. North Texas is making its fourth NCAA Tournament appearance. This team was a No. 15 seed in all three previous trips to March Madness, and North Texas lost all three of those games.

The Mean Green are a No. 13 seed this year though, so fans are hoping they can take down the Purdue Boilermakers for their first NCAA Tournament win. North Texas can definitely keep this game close given Purdue’s perimeter shooting woes.

The Boilermakers turn the ball over quite often too, while the Mean Green rank 20th in defensive field goal percentage. Those factors will lead to this game going UNDER the total.

The Mean Green only allowed a handful of teams to score more than 70 points against them this season.

• Score Prediction: Purdue 62 North Texas 59
• Best Bets - Side: North Texas +7.5
• Best Bets - Total: UNDER 126.5

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North Texas vs. Purdue Betting Odds

Line Movements

• Spread: Purdue -7.5
• Total: 126.5
• Money-Line: Purdue -350 North Texas +290

Odds to Win NCAA Tournament

• North Texas 150/1
• Purdue 40/1

Odds to Win South Region

• North Texas 66/1
• Purdue 8/1

Odds Subject to Change

First Round Predictions

Friday's Early Action - Mar. 19 7 vs. 10 3 vs. 14 1 vs. 16 6 vs. 11 2 vs. 15 1 vs. 16 8 vs. 9 5 vs. 12

Handicapping North Texas vs. Purdue

Kudos to North Texas for creating a tough non-conference schedule. The Mean Green hammered the worst teams on that slate, but they went just 4-4 in non-conference play as they played three top 30 teams in Arkansas, West Virginia, and Loyola Chicago. That helped them thrive early in Conference USA play, pulling out to a 9-2 record.

The last week of the regular season was disastrous for North Texas. The Mean Green lost three straight games to Marshall and UAB (twice) heading into the CUSA Tournament. However, they found their feet with four wins and four days to claim the automatic bid. North Texas didn’t allow an opponent to score more than 57 points in that four-game run.

Purdue didn’t have it easy playing in the loaded Big Ten. The Boilermakers did themselves no favors with losses to Clemson and Miami (FL) before the start of conference play though. They got off to a rocky 2-3 start in Big Ten play before coming alive in early January.

This team won 11 of its last 14 conference games to earn a comfortable spot in the NCAA Tournament. While Purdue did lose to Minnesota, the Boilermakers beat Ohio State twice and Wisconsin once in the regular season.

• Region: South
• Matchup: 4 vs.13
• Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
• Location: Indianapolis, Indiana
• Date: Mar. 19, 2021
• TV-Time: TNT - 7:29 p.m. (ET)

Handicapping Resources: March Madness Central | NCAA Consensus Picks

Betting Stats & Analysis - North Texas Mean Green

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

The Mean Green went 15-9-1 ATS in the regular season and 60% of their games went under the total. North Texas won and covered all four games in the Conference USA Tournament, and is 7-2-1 ATS over its last ten tilts.

Seed: 13
Conference: C-USA
Bid: Auto

• SU: 17-9
• ATS: 16-9
• O/U: 10-15

• Current Form (Last 5): 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS, 2-3 O/U
• Notable Wins: Western Kentucky

• PS/G: 69.8 (214th)
• PA/G: 61.2 (10th)
• Off Rtg: 105.9 (100th)
• Def Rtg: 92.9 (26th)

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Betting Stats & Analysis - Purdue Boilermakers

Purdue was 11-1 SU at home this season, but the Boilermakers were just 7-8 SU in road or neutral site games. They posted a winning ATS record this campaign by posting five straight covers to close out the regular season.

Seed: 4
Conference: Big Ten
Bid: At-large

• SU: 18-9
• ATS: 14-11-2
• O/U: 14-13

• Current Form (Last 5): 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS, 2-3 O/U
• Notable Wins: Liberty, Ohio State (x2), Maryland, Michigan State (x2), Wisconsin

• PS/G: 71.1 (186th)
• PA/G: 66.3 (62nd)
• Off Rtg: 106 (98th)
• Def Rtg: 98.8 (136th)

First Round Predictions

Friday's Late Action - Mar. 19 4 vs. 13 8 vs. 9 2 vs. 15 4 vs. 13 7 vs. 10 6 vs. 11 3 vs. 14 5 vs. 12

Key Players to Watch

Javion Hamlet has been the catalyst for North Texas’ first NCAA Tournament appearance in over a decade. Hamlet leads the Mean Green with 15.0 PPG and 4.5 APG. He averaged 18.5 PPG in North Texas’ run to the conference title, but he turned the ball over 16 times in those four games.

The most efficient shooter on the roster is Zachary Simmons. Simmons is averaging 10.3 PPG and making 65.9% of his field goals. He leads North Texas with 6.2 RPG too.

Purdue has one of the most dominant frontcourt players in the country. Trevion Williams is averaging 15.6 PPG and 9.0 RPG to lead the Boilermakers in both categories. He has the fourth-best offensive rebounding percentage nationally, but he is making just over 50% of his free throws.

Sasha Stefanovic is the best three-point shooter on the team. Stefanovic is the only Purdue player hitting 40% of his threes this year.

• NOTX - Javion Hamlet (14.9 PPG, 4.5 APG)
• NOTX - James Reese (10.8 PPG, 4.5 RPG)

• PUR - Trevion Williams (15.6 PPG, 9 RPG)
• PUR - Jaden Ivey (10.5 PPG)

Head-to-Head - North Texas vs. Purdue

These schools have only met once prior to Friday’s first round game. Purdue hammered North Texas in West Lafayette 90-63 back on December 10, 1970.

March Madness Records & Trends

North Texas Mean Green

• All-Time Record: 0-3
• Last Appearance: 2010
• Deepest Run: First Round (2010)

-- North Texas has lost three striaght NCAA Tournament games.
-- North Texas has failed to score 66 points or more in three straight NCAA Tournament games.
-- North Texas has covered the spread in four straight games when playing on a neutral court.
-- North Texas has covered the spread in eight of its last 10 games.
-- North Texas has gone UNDER the point total in three straight games.  

Purdue Boilermakers

• All-Time Record: 42-31
• Last Appearance: 2019
• Deepest Run: Final Four (1980)

-- Purdue has reached the Sweet 16 in three straight NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Purdue has seen five overtime periods over its last 12 NCAA Tournament games.
-- Purdue has won seven of its last 10 NCAA Tournament games.
-- Purdue has covered the spread in five of its last six games.
-- Purdue has gone UNDER the point total in five of its last six games after going OVER the point total the game prior.

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