Syracuse vs. San Diego State Predictions, Odds, Preview

Mar. 19, 2021

Joe Williams
NCAA BK Expert
VegasInsider.com

Syracuse vs. San Diego State Predictions

The 11th-seed Syracuse Orange will square off with the 6th-seed San Diego State Aztecs will lock horns in the first round of the Midwest Region at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis at 9:40 p.m. ET on CBS.

Syracuse was building up a little bit of momentum heading into the ACC Tournament, topping both Clemson and North Carolina, two NCAA Tournament teams, before ousting N.C. State, an NIT team, from the ACC tourney. The road came to a disappointing end in a hotly contested and narrow loss to Virginia, 72-69, as the Orange covered.

San Diego State won 23 games this season, and improved their seeding even more by winning the Mountain West Championship over Utah State in the tourney final. It wasn't pretty, and never is for the methodical Aztecs, who averaged just 71.3 PPG in the three MWC tourney games, and they managed just 74.4 PPG during the season to rank 100th in the nation. Defensively is where the Aztecs excel, holding the opposition to just 60.1 PPG, good for fourth in the nation.

With San Diego State's suffocating defense, Syracuse might have to do a double-take and check the front of the jerseys. The Orange might feel as if they're playing against Virginia, a team with very similar style to San Diego State. That doesn't bode well for the Orange, who lost to UVA in the regular season, 81-58, and in the league tourney, 72-69. They struggle against the press and lockdown defenses. Therefore, San Diego State advances here, and there will be no 11 over 6 upset.

• Score Prediction: San Diego State 68 Syracuse 61
• Best Bets - Side: San Diego State -2.5
• Best Bets - Total: UNDER 138.5

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Syracuse vs. San Diego State Betting Odds

Line Movements

• Spread: San Diego State -2.5
• Total: 138.5
• Money-Line: San Diego State -155 Syracuse +135

Odds to Win NCAA Tournament

• Syracuse 80/1
• San Diego State 50/1

Odds to Win Midwest Regional

• Syracuse 25/1
• San Diego State 12/1

Odds Subject to Change

First Round Predictions

Friday's Early Action - Mar. 19 7 vs. 10 3 vs. 14 1 vs. 16 6 vs. 11 2 vs. 15 1 vs. 16 8 vs. 9 5 vs. 12

Handicapping Syracuse vs. San Diego State

The Orange closed out the regular season with five victories in their final seven, going 4-3 ATS against the number, and they split a pair of ACC tournament games with two covers and two OVER results. The offense has been hit or miss for Syracuse, and they really struggle against defensive-minded teams.

As mentioned above, the Orange struggled against Virginia, which employs a similar style to San Diego State. The Clemson Tigers also locked it down on defense this season, and the Orange struggled against them, too. They did win the regular-season finale, 64-54, against the Tigers at the Carrier Dome, and they lost 78-61 to the Tigers in the upstate in early February. You can get a glimpse of their potential against the Aztecs, and it's not terribly promising.

San Diego State really plays great defense, and they're slow and methodical on the offense end. They allowed just 57 points to Utah State in the MWC Final, and they enter the NCAA Tournament on a 14-game win streak since a loss at Utah State on Jan. 16. They're 9-5 ATS during the span, too, although just 1-4 ATS across the past five entering the tournament.

You can expect a low-scoring, and at times downright ugly game played in the sixties, and the shot-clock operator better be ready, because there will be a handful of violations.

• Region: Midwest
• Matchup: 6 vs. 11
• Venue: Hinkle Fieldhouse
• Location: Indianapolis, Indiana
• Date: Mar. 19, 2021
• TV-Time: CBS - 9:40 p.m. (ET)

Handicapping Resources: March Madness Central | NCAA Consensus Picks

Betting Stats & Analysis - Syracuse Orange

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

The good news for the Orange is that they're back in the NCAA Tournament. They have covered eight of their past 10 NCAA Tournament games, and they're 4-0 ATS in the past four NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.

While the historical trends give you a false sense of security, the more recent trends are also pleasant for Orange side bettors. Syracuse has covered four in a row, and they're 4-0 ATS in the past four against winning teams. They're also hitting at a 6-1-1 ATS clip in neutral-site games as an underdog, including their two ACC Tournament games.

As far as the totals go, the OVER is 10-1 in the past 11 neutral-site games for the Orange, including, again, their two ACC tourney outings. The OVER is also 4-1 in the past five on a neutral court as a 'dog, while going 20-6 overall in their previous 26 games overall.

Seed: 11
Conference: ACC
Bid: At-large

• SU: 16-9
• ATS: 12-13
• O/U: 13-12

• Current Form (Last 5): 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS, 3-2 O/U
• Notable Wins: Georgetown, Virginia Tech, UNC, Clemson

• PS/G: 75.8 (71st)
• PA/G: 70.7 (195th)
• Off Rtg: 108.2 (58th)
• Def Rtg: 100.9 (190th)

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Betting Stats & Analysis - San Diego State Aztecs

The Aztecs haven't been hitting against the number of late, going 1-4 ATS across the past five games overall, and they're just 1-4 ATS in the previous five when installed as a favorite, too. However, they are 9-4 ATS in the past 13 neutral-site games as a favorite, including their MWC title game win over Utah State on Saturday, 68-57.

Historically, San Diego State has posted a 4-1 ATS across their past five NCAA Tournament games, and the OVER is actually 5-2 in their previous seven games in the Big Dance as a favorite. Of course, the complexion of the team is completely changed from those previous teams, and that can mostly be discounted.

The UNDER is 14-3 in San Diego State's past 17 neutral-site games, and 4-1 in the previous five neutral-site games as a favorite, and that information holds a lot more water.

Seed: 6
Conference: Mountain West
Bid: Auto

• SU: 23-4
• ATS: 14-12
• O/U: 14-12

• Current Form (Last 5): 5-0 SU, 1-4 ATS, 2-3 O/U
• Notable Wins: UCLA, Colorado State, Boise State (x2), Utah State

• PS/G: 74.1 (104th)
• PA/G: 60.6 (8th)
• Off Rtg: 109.9 (38th)
• Def Rtg: 89.8 (9th)

First Round Predictions

Friday's Late Action - Mar. 19 4 vs. 13 8 vs. 9 2 vs. 15 4 vs. 13 7 vs. 10 6 vs. 11 3 vs. 14 5 vs. 12

Key Players to Watch

The Orange had four players averaging double digits during the regular season, led by the coaches' son, Buddy Boeheim. He led the team with 16.0 PPG in 20 regular-season games, and he is dependable at the charity stripe at 85.3 percent during the regular season. Alan Griffin went for 15.3 PPG and 6.6 RPG in the regular season, while hitting 88.7 percent from the stripe. The ball will be in their hands in a close game late, and that's likely your best bet.

The Aztecs had just two players in double digits for scoring average in the regular season, with Jordan Schakel and Matt Mitchell providing the one-two punch. Terrell Gomez and Trey Pulliam stepped up with 12.7 PPG to provide tertiary scoring options in the MWC tourney, and if they are to go on a deep run that will need to continue.

• SYR - Buddy Boeheim (17.1 PPG)
• SYR - Alan Griffin (14.7 PPG, 6.5 RPG)

• SDST - Jordan Schakel (14.3 PPG, 4.4 RPG)
• SDST - Matt Mitchell (15.4 PPG, 5.5 RPG)

Head-to-Head - Syracuse vs. San Diego State

In 2012, these teams met on the deck of the U.S.S. Midway in a game between two ranked teams on Nov. 11, 2012. The Orange handled its business that night, winning 62-49 in a low-scoring affair.

Prior to that these teams met was back in the 2007 NIT with 26,572 fans to set an NIT attendance record. It was also coach Jim Boeheim's 750th career win, as the Orange rolled to an 80-64 win.

March Madness Records & Trends

Syracuse Orange

• All-Time Record: 68-40
• Last Appearance: 2019
• Deepest Run: Champion (2003)

-- Syracuse has won seven of its last 10 NCAA Tournament games.
-- Syracuse has reached the Final Four in two of its last five NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Syracuse has reached the Sweet 16 in 11 of its last 16 NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Syracuse has covered the spread in four straight games.
-- Syracuse has gone OVER the point total in four of its last six games

San Diego State Aztecs

• All-Time Record: 6-12
• Last Appearance: 2018
• Deepest Run: Sweet 16 (2014)

-- San Diego State has lost three of its last four NCAA Tournament games.
-- San Diego State has failed to reach the Sweet 16 in four of its last five NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- San Diego State has been eliminated by a school seeded No. 1 in two of its last three NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- San Diego State has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games.
-- San Diego State has gone OVER the point total in three straight games after going UNDER the point total the game prior.

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