Virginia Tech vs. Florida Predictions, Odds, Preview

Mar. 19, 2021

Joe Williams
NCAA BK Expert
VegasInsider.com

Virginia Tech vs. Florida Predictions

The Virginia Tech Hokies and Florida Gators officially kick off the NCAA Tournament's Field of 64 in a 7 vs. 10 game in the South Region at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis on Friday at 12:15 p.m. ET.

The Hokies recorded some impressive victories this season, including a win over Villanova on a neutral site, and against fellow NCAA Tournament teams Clemson and Virginia. But they're coming off a disappointing 81-73 loss against North Carolina in their only ACC Tournament game, failing as a four-point underdog. They have also alternated wins and losses in the past six, while playing .500 ball at 4-4 SU/3-5 ATS across the past eight games.

The Gators also stubbed their toe down the stretch, losing three of the final four games, while going 0-4 ATS in those outings. Two of the losses were against tournament team Tennessee, including a 78-66 setback in the SEC Tournament. It was all pretty much downhill since a solid win over West Virginia in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge back on Jan. 30 in Morgantown.

Bracket players and bettors are always searching for lower seeds or underdogs to advance, and Virginia Tech is a good bet against a very mediocre Florida team which isn't playing very sound basketball at the moment.

• Score Prediction: Virginia Tech 71 Florida 69
• Best Bets - Side: Virginia Tech +1
• Best Bets - Total: OVER 137.5

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Virginia Tech vs. Florida Betting Odds

Line Movements

• Spread: Florida -1
• Total: 137.5
• Money-Line: Florida -115 Virginia Tech -105

Odds to Win NCAA Tournament

• Virginia Tech 66/1
• Florida 80/1

Odds to Win South Regional

• Virginia Tech 16/1
• Florida 16/1

Odds Subject to Change

First Round Predictions

Friday's Early Action - Mar. 19 7 vs. 10 3 vs. 14 1 vs. 16 6 vs. 11 2 vs. 15 1 vs. 16 8 vs. 9 5 vs. 12

Handicapping Virginia Tech vs. Florida

With the exception of a 75-55 loss at home against Penn State early in the season on Dec. 8, Virginia Tech didn't really have a bad loss this season. They were 13-3 SU in the 16 games in which they were favored, with one of those setbacks against ACC champ Georgia Tech on Feb. 23, a loss that looks a little better today.

Florida won just one of three against Tennessee this season, they lost to fellow SEC tournament teams Alabama, Arkansas and Missouri, as well as a setback at Florida State by 12. They beat the teams they were supposed to beat, and they didn't beat anyone special, outside of their non-conference win at West Virginia.

Virginia Tech is a little more battled tested, and they scored a few more signature wins. And they lost last time out against UNC, and they haven't lost consecutive games straight up all season. A money line bet on the Hokies is going to be very popular, or at least it should be.

• Region: South
• Matchup: 7 vs. 10
• Venue: Hinkle Fieldhouse
• Location: Indianapolis, Indiana
• Date: Mar. 19, 2021
• TV-Time: CBS - 12:15 p.m. (ET)

Handicapping Resources: March Madness Central | NCAA Consensus Picks

Betting Stats & Analysis - Virginia Tech Hokies

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

Virginia Tech went 11-10 ATS in their 21 games overall, with the OVER outpacing the UNDER 12-9. A lot of their successes came on their home floor, while they were just 3-3 SU/2-4 ATS on the road, and 2-1 SU/ATS on neutral courts.

The Hokies have posted a 1-4 ATS mark across their past five games overall, and they're just 1-4 ATS in the previous five against teams with a winning record. In addition, they have covered just twice in their past seven battles in the NCAA Tournament. However, they are coming off a loss to UNC in the ACC tourney, and they're 4-1 ATS in the past five coming off a SU loss.

For totals, while the OVER is 6-1-1 in the past eight for Virginia Tech at a neutral site, the UNDER is 7-3 in their past 10 games overall, while the UNDER is 4-1 in their past five following a non-cover. I'll take recent trends over historical trends which may or may not include players on the current roster.

Seed: 10
Conference: ACC
Bid: At-large

• SU: 15-6
• ATS: 11-10
• O/U: 11-9-1

• Current Form (Last 5): 3-2 SU, 1-4 ATS, 3-2 O/U
• Notable Wins: Villanova, Clemson, Duke, Virginia

• PS/G: 72.1 (154th)
• PA/G: 65.5 (55th)
• Off Rtg: 107.2 (76th)
• Def Rtg: 97.4 (101st)

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Betting Stats & Analysis - Florida Gators

The Gators are ice-cold against the number lately, and that's great news if you plan to take Virginia Tech and fade Florida. The Gators have failed to cover in four straight entering the tournament, while going 0-5 ATS in the past five against teams with a winning record.

The Gators haven't fared very well this season in neutral-site games, going 1-4 ATS in the past five tries. That includes both games in the SEC tourney, a narrow win over Vanderbilt, and a loss to Tennessee. They did cover against Boston College on a neutral site back on Dec. 3, but failed to cover the number on a neutral court against Army back on Dec. 2 in the opener.

The UNDER has dominated for Florida lately, going 7-1-1 in the past nine games overall. They failed to cover last time out, and that's good news for the UNDER bettors, as the total has gone below in five of their past six following an ATS loss.

And while the OVER/UNDER split 2-2 in four neutral-site games this season, the UNDER is 13-6 in their past 19 neutral-court battles. The UNDER is also 7-3 in the past 10 NCAA Tournament games.

Seed: 7
Conference: SEC
Bid: At-large

• SU: 14-9
• ATS: 10-13
• O/U: 10-12-1

• Current Form (Last 5): 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS, 1-3-1 O/U
• Notable Wins: LSU, Tennessee, West Virginia

• PS/G: 74 (108th)
• PA/G: 69.8 (169th)
• Off Rtg: 104.5 (122nd)
• Def Rtg: 98.7 (134th)

First Round Predictions

Friday's Late Action - Mar. 19 4 vs. 13 8 vs. 9 2 vs. 15 4 vs. 13 7 vs. 10 6 vs. 11 3 vs. 14 5 vs. 12

Key Players to Watch

Keve Aluma disappointed against UNC in the ACC tourney, scoring just nine points, but he paced the Hokies during the regular season with a team-high 15.9 PPG. He has grabbed at least six rebounds in seven straight, and he has three double-doubles during the span. Justyn Mutts picked a good time for a season best, going for 24 points vs. UNC while adding eight boards and a blocked shot.

Tre Mann averaged 26.0 PPG in the two SEC tourney games, and he managed 15.0 PPG with 5.8 RPG, 3.4 APG and 1.5 SPG during the regular season. He was also very dependable at the regular season, hitting 83.8% from the free-throw line, so look for Mann to have the ball in his hands in a close game. Keyontae Johnson averaged 16.0 PPG, but he was lost in December due to a heart issue, forcing Colin Castleton and Mann to pick up the slack. Castleton was good for 12.7 PPG, 5.7 RPG and 2.3 BPG.

• VT - Keve Aluma (15.9 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 1.4 BPG)
• VT - Tyrece Radford (11.4 PPG, 6.1 RPG)

• UF - Tre Mann (16 PPG, 5.7 RPG)
• UF - Colin Castleton (12 PPG, 5.9 RPG)

Head-to-Head - Virginia Tech vs. Florida

These teams have met nine times on the college hardwood, with Virginia Tech winning five of the nine previous meetings. The Hokies won 79-57 in Orlando in the most recent meeting way back in 1991.

March Madness Records & Trends

Virginia Tech Hokies

• All-Time Record: 8-11
• Last Appearance: 2019
• Deepest Run: Sweet 16 (2019)

-- Virginia Tech has failed to reach the Sweet 16 in nine of its last 10 NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Virginia Tech has lost four of its last six NCAA Tournament games.
-- Virginia Tech has been eliminated by a power-conference school in five of its last six NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Virginia Tech has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games.
-- Virignia Tech has gone UNDER the point total in seven of its last 10 games.  

Florida Gators

• All-Time Record: 47-20
• Last Appearance: 2019
• Deepest Run: Champion (2007)

-- Florida has won 18 of its last 25 NCAA Tournament games.
-- Florida has reached the Elite Eight in five of its last seven NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Florida has been eliminated by a school seeded No. 7 or lower in six straight NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Florida has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games when playing on a neutral court.
-- Florida has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last 11 games.
-- Florida has gone UNDER the point total in seven of its last nine games.

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