Texas Southern vs. Michigan Predictions, Odds, Preview

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

Mar. 20, 2021

Dave Schwab
NCAA BK Expert
VegasInsider.com

Texas Southern vs. Michigan Predictions

Michigan has been opened as a 26-point favorite for Saturday’s 3 p.m. (ET) tip on CBS. The betting line for the total has been opened at 142.5 points.

The Wolverines have been idle since bowing out of the Big Ten Tournament semifinals on March 13 while the Tigers saw action early in Thursday’s play-in games. The spread is a bit wider than expected even for a 16 vs. 1 matchup which makes Texas Southern a tempting play to cover.

I do have some concern with Michigan’s three losses in its last five games both straight-up and against the spread.

The total line is also set a bit high in anticipation of a big day for the Wolverines on the scoreboard. Look for Michigan to still win this game by a comfortable double-digit margin but the total score will be lower than expected.

• Score Prediction: Michigan 73 Texas Southern 62
• Best Bets - Side: Texas Southern +26
• Best Bets - Total: UNDER 142.5

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Texas Southern vs. Michigan Betting Odds

• Spread: Michigan -26
• Total: 146.5
• Money-Line: Michigan -10000 Texas Southern +2500

Odds to Win NCAA Tournament

• Texas Southern 2000/1
• Michigan 6/1

Odds to Win East Region

• Texas Southern 500/1
• Michigan 7/4

Odds Subject to Change

First Round Predictions

Saturday's Early Action - Mar. 20 5 vs. 12 4 vs. 13 3 vs. 14 8 vs. 9 1 vs. 16 5 vs. 12 2 vs. 15 6 vs. 10

Handicapping Texas Southern vs. Michigan

Texas Southern already has one upset win under its belt in this year’s NCAA Tournament with a 60-52 First Four victory over Mount St. Mary’s as a slight one-point underdog. That does create some solid momentum for Saturday’s major step up against one of the best teams in the nation.

The Tigers also bring a SU 10-game winning streak into this matchup. Michigan was unstoppable through most of the winter but a dismal 23-point loss to Illinois at home on March 2 brought that run to a screeching halt. It went on to lose to rival Michigan State in its final regular season game before the loss to Ohio State in the conference tournament. This slide casts just enough doubt for a completely dominating performance in this tournament’s opener.

• Region: East
• Matchup: 1 vs. 16
• Venue: Mackey Arena
• Location: West Lafayette, Indiana
• Date: Mar. 20, 2021
• TV-Time: CBS - 3:00 p.m. (ET)

Handicapping Resources: March Madness Central | NCAA Consensus Picks

Betting Stats & Analysis - Texas Southern Tigers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

Texas Southern is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games. However, it is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games against a team from the Big Ten. It is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral-site games.

The total has stayed UNDER in four of the Tigers’ last six games closing as underdogs. It has gone OVER in five of their last six games played on a Saturday.

Seed: 16
Conference: SWAC
Bid: Auto

• SU: 17-8
• ATS: 12-10-2
• O/U: 13-10-1

• Current Form (Last 5): 5-0 SU, 4-0-1 ATS, 2-3 O/U
• Notable Wins: None

• PS/G: 74.8 (88th)
• PA/G: 69.7 (161st)
• Off Rtg: 100 (214th)
• Def Rtg: 93.1 (28th)

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Betting Stats & Analysis - Michigan Wolverines

Michigan is 13-5 ATS over its last 18 games with a SU 16-4 record in its last 20 games closing as a favorite. Overall, it went 17-7 ATS this season and 1-1 ATS in two previous neutral-site games.

The total has stayed UNDER in nine of the Wolverines’ last 11 games and it has stayed UNDER in four of its last five games in the month of March. It stayed UNDER in 15 of 24 games this season.

Seed: 1
Conference: Big Ten
Bid: At-large

• SU: 20-4
• ATS: 17-7
• O/U: 9-15

• Current Form (Last 5): 2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS, 1-4 O/U
• Notable Wins: Maryland (x2), Wisconsin (x2), Purdue, Rutgers, Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan State

• PS/G: 76.2 (64th)
• PA/G: 65.4 (53rd)
• Off Rtg: 112.3 (20th)
• Def Rtg: 96.3 (76th)

First Round Predictions

Saturday's Late Action - Mar. 20 2 vs. 15 7 vs. 10 4 vs. 13 8 vs. 9 1 vs. 16 6 vs. 11 3 vs. 14 7 vs. 10

Key Players to Watch

Forward John Walker III had the hot hand on Thursday night with 19 points. Guard Michael Weathers has led the Tigers’ in scoring this season with 16.2 points per game. He is shooting 48% from the field. Forward Joirdon Nicholas leads in rebounds with seven a game.

Center Hunter Dickinson leads the team in both points (14.2) and rebounds (7.6). Guard Franz Wagner is scoring 12.8 PPG and shooting 49.3% from the field. One major injury note has forward Isaiah Livers (13.1 points) out of the lineup with a foot injury.

• TXSO - Michael Weathers (16.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG)
• TXSO - Joridon Karl Nicholas (11.3 PPG, 7 RPG)

• MICH - Hunter Dickinson (14.2 PPG, 7.6 RPG)
• MICH - Franz Wagner (12.8 PPG, 6.2 RPG)

March Madness Records & Trends

Texas Southern Tigers

• All-Time Record: 2-8
• Last Appearance: 2018
• Deepest Run: Second Round (2020)

-- Texas Southern has lost eight of its last 10 NCAA Tournament games.
-- Texas Southern has covered the spread in four straight games when playing on a neutral court.

Michigan Wolverines

• All-Time Record: 61-28
• Last Appearance: 2019
• Deepest Run: Champion (1989)

-- Michigan has reached the Sweet 16 in five of its last six NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Michigan has reached the National Championship in two of its last six NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Michigan has won 13 of its last 18 NCAA Tournament games.
-- Michigan has covered the spread in six straight games after failing to cover the spread the game prior.
-- Michigan has gone UNDER the point total in six of its last seven games.

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