UNC-Greensboro vs. FSU Predictions, Odds, Preview

Mar. 20, 2021

Joe Williams
NCAA BK Expert
VegasInsider.com

UNC-Greensboro vs. FSU Predictions

The UNC Greensboro Spartans will square off with the Florida State Seminoles in a East Region matchup at Bankers Life Fieldhouse on Saturday at 12:45 p.m. ET in Indianapolis on truTV in a 4-13 matchup.

The Spartans of UNCG were able to amass 21 victories this season, including three in the Southern Conference (SOCON) tourney over The Citadel, East Tennessee State and Mercer. They covered the final two games, including their championship game win over Mercer, 69-61.

Florida State won't need to worry much about the three from the Spartans, as they were brutal at just 29.2 percent from behind the arc, or just 334th in the nation. Defensively UNCG can present some challenges. FSU will have the obvious size advantage, though, as the Spartans are used to pushing people around in the SOCON. Head coach Leonard Hamilton's group might do the pushing here.

FSU came up short in the ACC title game against Georgia Tech, and limp in just 2-3 SU/1-3-1 ATS across the past five. Many bracket pickers, who I have tremendous disdain for, by the way, will likely make UNCG their upset special pick over the Seminoles. It's a foolish pick, although UNCG isn't a bad grab with the points in a real bet.

• Score Prediction: Florida State 77 UNC Greensboro 72
• Best Bets - Side: UNC Greensboro +11.5
• Best Bets - Total: 145

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UNC-Greensboro vs. FSU Betting Odds

Line Movements

• Spread: FSU -11.5
• Total: 145
• Money-Line: FSU -700 UNCG +500

Odds to Win NCAA Tournament

• UNCG 150/1
• FSU 20/1

Odds to Win East Regional

• UNCG 8/1
• FSU 5/1

Odds Subject to Change

First Round Predictions

Saturday's Early Action - Mar. 20 5 vs. 12 4 vs. 13 3 vs. 14 8 vs. 9 1 vs. 16 5 vs. 12 2 vs. 15 6 vs. 10

Handicapping UNC-Greensboro vs. FSU

The Spartans covered 17 of 29 games overall this season, with the UNDER going 15-13-1. Surprisingly, UNCG played a total of six neutral-site games, which is rather high for a SOCON team, and they ended up going 4-2 SU/3-3 ATS in those six outings. The two losses came to fellow mid-majors Winthrop and Duquesne back on Dec. 1-2.

UNCG stumbled out of the gate this season at 1-3 SU/ATS, and they sat just 2-5 ATS through the first seven games. It looked like it might be a down season for the Spartans, who enter the season with 23 or more wins in each of the past four seasons under Wes Miller. This will also be their fifth trip to the postseason in the past six seasons, so this is a team which won't be fazed by the big stage.

Florida State has had a little difficulty against the number lately, going just 2-3-2 ATS across the past seven. But they have failed to cover in consecutive games just three times this season. This is a well coached team, and the Seminoles head into this one with very good health, which is key at this juncture of the season. In fact, they have no notable injuries to report.

• Region: East
• Matchup: 4 vs. 13
• Venue: Bankers Life Fieldhouse
• Location: Indianapolis, Indiana
• Date: Mar. 19, 2021
• TV-Time: TruTV - 12:45 p.m. (ET)

Handicapping Resources: March Madness Central | NCAA Consensus Picks

Betting Stats & Analysis - UNC-Greensboro Spartans

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

UNCG rattled off four straight wins since its most recent setback at home against Western Carolina on Feb. 24. They lost that game 81-80 as 14-point favorites, and it might have been the best thing to happen to them. It served as a wake-up call, and they certainly got the message from their coach, winning at a tough place in the regular-season finale against East Tennessee State in overtime on Feb. 27, before the three-game championship run in the league tourney.

Greensboro faced NCAA Tournament team Norfolk State on Dec. 13 and dusted them 64-47 as 12.5-point favorites in a cover. They lost to a good Winthrop team on Dec. 1 on a neutral court, too, and those Eagles will have their hands full in the first round against Villanova. Other than that, the Spartans didn't face any upper-tier teams, so their high victory total and good defensive numbers might not mean much.

Are they are paper tiger? Well, no, this is a well coached team with a lot of experience. But this will easily be its biggest test of the season, and they haven't faced a team with the size and physicality of Florida State all season.

UNCG cashed in 13 of the past 18 games overall, while going 11-4 ATS in the previous 15 against winning teams. The OVER is 5-1 in the past six as an underdog for the Spartans, but the UNDER is 4-1 in the past five neutral-site games as an underdog.

Seed: 13
Conference: SoCon
Bid: Auto

• SU: 21-7
• ATS: 17-11
• O/U: 13-14-1

• Current Form (Last 5): 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 O/U
• Notable Wins: None

• PS/G: 73.6 (114th)
• PA/G: 67.4 (97th)
• Off Rtg: 103.9 (134th)
• Def Rtg: 95.2 (63rd)

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Betting Stats & Analysis - FSU Seminoles

Florida State hasn't covered since a home game March 3 against Boston College, a 93-64 shellacking of the Eagles as 18.5-point favorites. They're 3-1 ATS in the past four as a double-digit favorite, and 4-2 ATS in six such situations this season.

The Seminoles rolled up 79.6 PPG this season to rank 30th offensively, and they rain in threes at a 38.5-percent clip, which was good for 16th in the nation during the regular season. While they play cursory defense, allowing 70.1 PPG to rank 179th, they did rank 23rd in defensive field-goal percentage at 40.0. They're good inside, but not great against the three. Again, they won't need to worry about that against the Spartans, who are an awful perimeter shooting team.

FSU has hit the OVER in seven of the past nine games overall thanks to that high-octane offense and mediocre defense. The OVER is also 4-1 in their past five NCAA Tournament games as a favorite, although the UNDER is 5-2 in their past seven games in the Big Dance overall.

The 'Noles also enter just 1-3-1 ATS in the previous five games overall, while going 0-2-2 ATS in the past four against winning teams. And in the NCAA Tournament, they're just 2-6 ATS in the past eight when installed as a favorite.

Seed: 4
Conference: ACC
Bid: At-large

• SU: 16-6
• ATS: 11-9-2
• O/U: 14-7-1

• Current Form (Last 5): 2-3 SU, 1-3-1 ATS, 3-2 O/U
• Notable Wins: Clemson, Florida, Georgia Tech, UNC (x2), Virginia

• PS/G: 78.9 (33rd)
• PA/G: 70.3 (184th)
• Off Rtg: 110.9 (28th)
• Def Rtg: 98.8 (137th)

First Round Predictions

Saturday's Late Action - Mar. 20 2 vs. 15 7 vs. 10 4 vs. 13 8 vs. 9 1 vs. 16 6 vs. 11 3 vs. 14 7 vs. 10

Key Players to Watch

The offense runs through Miller, who was good for 18.9 PPG in 25 regular-season games, while also grabbing 6.7 RPG with a team-high 4.0 APG and 2.6 SPG. The two areas he isn't particularly good is from behind the arc, as he hit just 19.0 percent on threes. He is also a dismal free-throw shooter at just 64.8 percent. The Spartans will want the ball in Keyshaun Langley's hands in a close game, as he hits at an 80.0-percent clip from the charity stripe.

For FSU, they had three guys in double digits for points during the regular season, led by M.J. Walker at 13.1 PPG. He is also a tremendous free-throw shooter at 81.5 percent, so look for the ball to be glued to his hands late if the game is on the line. If not, Raiquan Gray, who was second in scoring at 12.4 PPG, is also good from the line at 79.2 percent. Don't be surprised if free throws make a difference in this 4-13 matchup.

• UNCG - Isaiah Miller (19.3 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 4 APG)
• UNCG - Keyshaun Langley (9.8 PPG)

• FSU - M.J. Walker (13 PPG)
• FSU - Raiquan Gray (12 PPG, 6.5 RPG)

Head-to-Head - UNC-Greensboro vs. FSU

These teams have met four times before, with FSU coming out on top all four times. The last matchup went to the Seminoles in a 75-60 win in Tallahassee on Dec. 11, 2011 as they covered a 16.5-point spread that day.

March Madness Records & Trends

UNC-Greensboro Spartans

• All-Time Record: 0-3
• Last Appearance: 2018
• Deepest Run: First Round (2018)

-- UNCG has lost three straight NCAA Tournament games.
-- UNCG has lost two of its last three NCAA Tournament games by five points or less.
-- UNCG has covered the spread in four of its last six games.

FSU Seminoles

• All-Time Record: 21-17
• Last Appearance: 2019
• Deepest Run: Final Runner-up (1972)

-- FSU has won five of its last seven NCAA Tournament games.
-- FSU has failed to scored 59 points or more in three of its last four NCAA Tournament games in which they are eliminated in.
-- FSU has reached the Sweet 16 in three of its last five NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- FSU has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games.
-- FSU has gone OVER the point total in seven of its last nine games.

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