VCU vs. Oregon Predictions, Odds, Preview

Mar. 20, 2021

Joe Williams
NCAA BK Expert
VegasInsider.com

VCU vs. Oregon Predictions

The Virginia Commonwealth Rams square off with the Oregon Ducks in the final game of the first round at 9:57 p.m. ET at Indiana Farmers Coliseum in Indianapolis in a 10-7 game in the West Region. The game is televised on TNT.

The Rams were bumped off in the Atlantic 10 Conference title game, as the Bonnies secured a spot in the NCAA Tournament. VCU still did enough to earn the at-large bid despite a 3-3 SU/ATS mark across the past six outings.

The Ducks were dumped by Oregon State in their second game in the Pac-12 tournament, losing 75-64 as 8.5-point favorites. They split the two games in the league tourney with the OVER hitting in each of the past two. The OVER has been a common theme for UO, cashing in seven straight outings.

Oregon has been playing well lately, winning six of the past seven outings, and they have cashed against the number in five of the past six contests. As such, they're a great value as a seven-seed.

• Score Prediction: Oregon 76 VCU 67
• Best Bets - Side: Oregon -6
• Best Bets - Total: OVER 137

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VCU vs. Oregon Betting Odds

Line Movements

• Spread: Oregon -6
• Total: 137
• Money-Line: Oregon -260 VCU +220

Odds to Win NCAA Tournament

• VCU 100/1
• Oregon 50/1

Odds to Win West Regional

• VCU 30/1
• Oregon 16/1

Odds Subject to Change

Handicapping VCU vs. Oregon

The Rams are vying for their 20th victory of the season, which would be the 11th time in the past 13 years they reached the plateau. VCU has a proud history on the hardwood, highlighted by a Final Four run under Shaka Smart in 2011, which followed up a season when they were crowned CBI champions. They were bumped off in the first round in each of their past two appearances in the NCAA Tournament.

Oregon is back in the NCAA Tournament looking to make some noise. They fell to eventual national champ Virginia in the Sweet Sixteen last time out in the 2019 Big Dance. They have made the Sweet Sixteen in each of their past three NCAA Tournament appearances, even as a 12-seed in 2019.

The Rams head into this game with a lot of postseason magic across the past decade, but the Ducks won't be fazed by VCU, or impressed, as Oregon has done a lot of amazing things themselves in the NCAA Tournament. These are two proud teams which had down years by their standards, but one of them will be moving along to the Round of 32.

Oregon has been playing much more consistent basketball across the past month and a half, winning six of the past seven overall, and 11 of the past 13 while covering eight of the outings. Look for Oregon to keep their streak alive, as they have won each of their past six appearances in the Round of 64.

• Region: West
• Matchup: 7 vs. 10
• Venue: Indiana Farmers Fieldhouse
• Location: Indianapolis, Indiana
• Date: Mar. 20, 2021
• TV-Time: TNT - 9:57 p.m. (ET)

Handicapping Resources: March Madness Central | NCAA Consensus Picks

First Round Predictions

Saturday's Early Action - Mar. 20 5 vs. 12 4 vs. 13 3 vs. 14 8 vs. 9 1 vs. 16 5 vs. 12 2 vs. 15 6 vs. 10

Betting Stats & Analysis - VCU Rams

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

The Rams knocked off Utah State, a fellow NCAA Tournament team, on a neutral court to kick off the season back on Nov. 25, and they also scored a win over tournament teams Mount Saint Mary's and St. Bonaventure this season. But while they have 19 wins, there aren't many games on their schedule which really give you the sense they're a special team. And that's probably why the committee rightfully slotted them as a 10-seed.

VCU did nothing special offensively, going for just 72.3 PPG to rank 154th, and they hit 44.9% of its field goals to rank 131st. They're abhorrent to bettors hoping for threes, as they have hit 33.1% to rank just 208th during the regular season. The one thing the Rams do well is hit free throws, going 76.3% from the line to rank 32nd.

On the defensive side, the Rams allowed just 65.2 PPG to rank 53rd, and they were also 53rd with a 41.0 field-goal percentage. They're especially hard against the three, allowing just 29.4% successful makes from behind the arc to rank 18th.

Many will look at their 15-5 ATS mark across the past 20 NCAA Tournament games, while going 13-4 ATS in the past 17 as an underdog in the tourney, but that's past history. They're just 2-6 ATS in the past eight neutral-site games, 4-11 ATS in the past 15 neutral-site outings as an underdog and 12-30 ATS in the past 42 as an underdog. That's more recent history, and much more relevant.

Seed: 10
Conference: Atlantic-10
Bid: At-large

• SU: 19-6
• ATS: 14-10-1
• O/U: 9-16

• Current Form (Last 5): 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U
• Notable Wins: Utah State, St. Bonaventure, Saint Louis

• PS/G: 71.7 (165th)
• PA/G: 65.2 (50th)
• Off Rtg: 101.2 (194th)
• Def Rtg: 92 (19th)

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Betting Stats & Analysis - Oregon Ducks

The Ducks have been hot against the number, going 5-1 ATS in the past six as a favorite, while going 9-3 ATS in the past 12 neutral-site games as a favorite. They're also 13-3 ATS in the past 16 neutral-site games overall. In addition, they have an impressive 5-0-1 ATS mark in the past six NCAA Tournament games. Again, they have had ample success in the Big Dance in recent years, and won't be fazed by VCU.

Oregon has a tremendous offense, hitting 74.1 PPG to rank 105th in the nation during the regular season. They hit at a 46.9% clip to rank 49th in the country, and they're 27th on three-pointers at an impressive 38.0%. On defense, they have coughed up just 66.9 PPG to rank 83rd, although they're just 175th in defensive field-goal percentage at 43.3, and 130th against the three at 32.8%.

One things that might be a problem for the Ducks is their struggles at the free-throw line, as they have hit just 71.2% to rank 168th. That's going to be an issue in a close game, which this one could very well be.

The Ducks have hit the OVER in 20 of the past 28 as a favorite, and the OVER is 8-1-2 in the past 11 neutral-site games while going 6-0-2 ATS in the past eight neutral-site games as a favorite.

Seed: 7
Conference: Pac-12
Bid: At-large

• SU: 20-6
• ATS: 14-12
• O/U: 17-9

• Current Form (Last 5): 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS, 5-0 O/U
• Notable Wins: Seton Hall, Stanford (x2), Arizona (x2), Colorado, UCLA

• PS/G: 74.4 (95th)
• PA/G: 67.4 (94th)
• Off Rtg: 109.6 (41st)
• Def Rtg: 99.3 (151st)

First Round Predictions

Saturday's Late Action - Mar. 20 2 vs. 15 7 vs. 10 4 vs. 13 8 vs. 9 1 vs. 16 6 vs. 11 3 vs. 14 7 vs. 10

Key Players to Watch

Nah'Shon Hyland put on a show in the regular season with 19.2 PPG in 21 games, and he added 4.4 RPG, 2.0 APG and 2.0 SPG while connecting on 38.1% of his triples. He single-handedly almost lifted the Rams to an A-10 title, averaging 21.0 PPG in the tourney, while no one else had more than 7.7 PPG in the three games. While Vince Williams Jr. disappeared in the A-10 tourney, he was a nice secondary scoring option in the regular season with 11.1 PPG and 5.2 RPG. Both he and Hyland hit over 80.3% from the stripe, too, so they'll get all the late handles.

Chris Duarte led the team with 17.3 PPG in the regular season with 4.7 RPG, 2.4 APG and 1.9 SPG in 22 games, but it was LJ Figueroa leading the team with 17.5 PPG in two Pac-12 tourney games while Duarte averaged just 10.0 PPG. Eugene Omoruyi was very consistent all season, going for 16.9 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 2.1 APG and 1.3 SPG, while also hitting 77.9% at the stripe.

• VCU - Nah'Shon Hyland (19.5 PPG, 4.7 RPG)
• VCU - Vince WIlliams Jr. (10.6 PPG, 5.2 RPG)

• OREG - Eugene Omoruyi (16.7 PPG, 5.2 RPG)
• OREG - Chris Duarte (16.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG)

Head-to-Head - VCU vs. Oregon

The last time these teams met on the hardwood was a neutral-site game on Nov. 25, 2014 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y., with the Rams winning 77-63 to cover a five-point number as the UNDER cashed.

March Madness Records & Trends

VCU Rams

• All-Time Record: 13-17
• Last Appearance: 2019
• Deepest Run: Final Four (2011)

-- VCU has lost seven of its last nine NCAA Tournament games.
-- VCU has failed to reach the Sweet 16 in seven straight NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- VCU has seen two overtime periods over its last six NCAA Tournament games.
-- VCU has covered the spread in three of its last four games when playing on a neutral court.
-- VCU has failed to cover the spread in five of its last eight games when playing away from home.
-- VCU has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games when playing as the underdog.

Oregon Ducks

• All-Time Record: 25-15
• Last Appearance: 2019
• Deepest Run: Final Four (2017) - also 1939 champion

-- Oregon has reached the Sweet 16 in three straight NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Oregon has won nine of its last 12 NCAA Tournament games.
-- Oregon has been eliminated by an ACC school in two straight NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Oregon has covered the spread in five of its last six games.
-- Oregon has gone OVER the point total in seven straight games.

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