Maryland vs. Alabama Predictions, Odds, Preview

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

Mar. 22, 2021

David Schwab
NCAA BK Expert
VegasInsider.com

Maryland vs. Alabama Predictions

Maryland is a serious threat for Alabama in this game, playing a slow-style defensive game that clearly bothers the Crimson Tide. We saw it against Illinois when they faced Loyola-Chicago, and again with Abilene Christian upsetting Texas. Maryland can play a slow pace game that frustrates the high-tempo offense of Alabama.

There is a substantial difference between Alabama and Illinois and Texas, in that Alabama plays a highly-efficient defense that ranks top 25 in the nation. Maryland struggles on offense, despite some hot shooting from Eric Ayala. Maryland has gone UNDER in six of seven games, and features one of the nation's toughest defenses.

Alabama looked rusty against Iona, now facing a much better defense with better three-point shooters. Things won't be easier, so expect both school's efficient defenses to dictate the pace of play and see the point total go UNDER.

• Score Prediction: Alabama 72 Maryland 66
• Best Bets - Side: Alabama -5.5
• Best Bets - Total: UNDER 137.5

No. 10 Maryland vs. No. 2 Alabama Consensus Picks

The VegasInsider.com college basketball handicapping stable is currently showing a solid lean to Alabama in Monday's second round matchup versus Maryland in the East Region.

Crimson Tide: 5
Terrapins: 2
Under: 2
Over: 2

Be sure to check expert picks on the Terrapins and Crimson Tide!

Maryland vs. Alabama Betting Trends

As of Monday afternoon, the betting public is leanding to Alabama on both the point-spread (-5.5) and the money-line (-240), plus the 'over' (67%) is receiving extra attention too at 138.5 points.

Trends and Odds Subject to Change

The Betting Trend Movements can be viewed for this 10 vs. 2 matchup in the East Region for Monday.

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Maryland vs. Alabama Betting Odds

Line Movements

• Spread: Alabama -5.5
• Total: 137.5
• Money-Line: Alabama -250 Maryland +210

Odds to Win NCAA Tournament

• Maryland 66/1
• Alabama 16/1

Odds to Win East Region

• Maryland 12/1
• Alabama 5/2

Odds Subject to Change

Second Round Predictions

Monday's Previews - Mar. 22, 2021 2 vs. 7 1 vs. 8 11 vs. 14 5 vs. 13 1 vs. 8 4 vs. 5 2 vs. 10 3 vs. 6

Handicapping Maryland vs. Alabama

Alabama should win and might even cover, so of the two markets I think the point total is a bit better to wager on. Maryland has gone UNDER in six of seven, while Alabama has gone UNDER in six of its last eight. Playing the smart odds here is taking the combined 3-12 O/U records for both schools over their last 12 games.

Although Alabama struggled and the style of Maryland's play will likely frustrate the Crimson Tide, they are the better team. It's difficult to take Maryland with the spread despite how well they've been playing lately. Alabama has failed to cover the spread in two straight games, while Maryland has failed to cover the spread in three of its last five.

• Region: East
• Matchup: 2 vs. 10
• Venue: Bankers Life Fieldhouse
• Location: Indianapolis, Indiana
• Date: Mar. 22, 2021
• TV-Time: 8:45 p.m. (ET) - TNT

Handicapping Resources: March Madness Central | NCAA Consensus Picks

Betting Stats & Analysis - Maryland Terrapins

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

The point total going UNDER favors Maryland so often because of its solid defense and inconsistent offense. Maryland only scores 68.6 points per game which ranks 248th, while allowing 64.6 which ranks 45th nationally.

Despite a sluggish offense, Maryland hits the three-pointer at a pretty good rate. The Terrapins hit 35.7% of their three-pointers which ranks 86th nationally. The mentioned Ayala is the main culprit there, averaging 34.4% from beyond the arc.

Maryland has two glaring weaknesses when looking at stats, offensive rebounds and free throws. Maryland only hits 70.2% of its free throws which ranks 200th, while only grabbing 6.4 offensive boards per game which ranks 341st.

Seed: 10
Conference: Big Ten
Bid: At-large

• SU: 17-13
• ATS: 13-16
• O/U: 11-17-1

• Current Form (Last 5): 2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS, 1-4 O/U
• Notable Wins: UConn, Rutgers, Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin

• PS/G: 68.6 (248th)
• PA/G: 64.6 (45th)
• Off Rtg: 104 (131st)
• Def Rtg: 98 (117th)

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Betting Stats & Analysis - Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama's lack of experience showed in game one against Iona, taking the Crimson Tide to the wire. Alabama was able to win without doing what they do best, hitting three-pointers. John Petty in particular struggled, so Alabama winning on one of their worst offensive performances this season should be seen as optimistic.

What makes Alabama a unique team is that although they are high-scoring they are also defensively disruptive, which won them their first game. The Crimson Tide will match Maryland's solid defense with the nation's 21st-most efficient defense, one that averages 8.7 steals per game and 4.3 blocks per game.

Seed: 2
Conference: SEC
Bid: Auto

• SU: 25-6
• ATS: 17-13-1
• O/U: 14-17

• Current Form (Last 5): 5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U
• Notable Wins: LSU (x3), Tennessee (x2), Florida, Arkansas

• PS/G: 79.2 (29th)
• PA/G: 69.3 (147th)
• Off Rtg: 105.6 (101st)
• Def Rtg: 92.4 (21st)

Key Players to Watch

• MARY - Eric Ayala (15.2 PPG, 4.2 RPG)
• MARY - Aaron Wiggins (14 PPG, 5. 8 RPG)

• BAMA - Jaden Schakelford (14.1 PPG)
• BAMA - John Petty (12.2 PPG, 5.1 RPG)

2021 March Madness Tournament Team Results

Alabama beat Iona by 13 in its first game, but it wasn't enough to cover the spread. Alabama is now 2-2 on the ATS over its last four games when favored by a double-digit point total. Maryland covered as an underdog against UConn, only the second time Maryland has covered over its last five games.

March Madness Records & Trends

Maryland Terrapins

• All-Time Record: 43-27
• Last Appearance: 2019
• Deepest Run: Champion (2002)

-- Maryland has lost three of its last five NCAA Tournament games.
-- Maryland has failed to reach the Sweet 16 in seven of its last eight NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Maryland has been eliminated by a school seeded No. 5 or lower in nine of its last 11 NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Maryland has failed to cover the spread in three of its last five games.
-- Maryland has gone UNDER the point total in six of its last eight games.

Alabama Crimson Tide

• All-Time Record: 22-21
• Last Appearance: 208
• Deepest Run: Elite Eight (2004)

-- Alabama has lost five of its last eight NCAA Tournament games.
-- Alabama has failed to reach the Sweet 16 in four straight NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Alabama has failed to win two or more games in a NCAA Tournament in nine of its last 10 NCAA Tournament appearances.
-- Alabama has covered the spread in four of its last seven games when playing on a neutral court.
-- Alabama has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five non-conference games.

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