Yale Bulldogs vs. Purdue Boilermakers Picks, Predictions, Odds

Dave Schwab Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

The Ivy League’s Yale Bulldogs face the Big Ten’s Purdue Boilermakers in Friday’s NCAA Tournament opener in the East Region. Game time from Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee is slated for 2 p.m. on TBS.

Score Prediction

Purdue 74, Yale 60

Best Bet

Yale +16 (-110)

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YALE BULLDOGS vs PURDUE BOILERMAKERS PREDICTIONS

Tight wins over both Penn and Princeton punched the Bulldogs’ ticket to the Big Dance as Ivy League Tournament Champions. Yale was the No. 2 seed in that tournament after going 11-3 straight-up in conference play. It closed as a three-point underdog in the two-point upset against Princeton last Sunday.

Purdue was the No. 3 seed in the recent Big Ten Tournament after going 14-6 SU in conference play. The Boilermakers won but failed to cover in early victories against Penn State and Michigan State. They ran into a white-hot Iowa team in last Sunday’s championship game and came up short in a nine-point loss as slight 2.5-point favorites.

The much wider 16-point spread for this game is appropriate given the matchup at hand. Ivy League teams are known for playing tight defense to slow down the pace of the game. That tactic is going to be difficult against Purdue’s advantage in size and overall talent. Yet, it has also proven to be effective in postseason play with everything on the heavily favored team.

YALE BULLDOGS vs PURDUE BOILERMAKERS BETTING ODDS

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YALE BULLDOGS vs PURDUE BOILERMAKERS BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Friday, March 18, 2022
Matchup: No. 14 vs. No. 3
Region: East
Venue: Fiserv Forum
Location: Milwaukee, Wisconsin
TV-Time: TBS - 2:00 p.m. ET

YALE BULLDOGS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 19-11
ATS: 14-15
O/U: 13-16

Yale has been able to win 11 of its last 13 games SU. It has also gone a highly profitable 7-2 against the spread in its last nine contests. Overall, the Bulldogs are 19-11 SU with a 14-15 record ATS. They are an even 5-5 against the closing number in 10 games closing as underdogs.

Earlier in the year, Yale failed to cover a double-digit spread in SU losses to Seton Hall, Auburn, and Saint Mary’s. This is definitely cause for concern against another nationally-ranked team. Yet. Keep in mind that the Bulldogs are also a much better team playing in March than they were back in November and December.

If Yale is going to keep Friday’s game closer than 16 points it is going to need a career game from guard Azar Swain. He has been leading the way all season long with an average of 19.2 points and 4.2 rebounds a game. He is shooting 42% from the field and 34.9% from three-point range.

The Bulldogs are averaging 72.3 points per game and their defense is holding opposing teams to 68.6 points. However, that points-allowed average is a bit deceiving given the team’s current playing form. Yale is shooting 44.4% from the field and 33% from outside the three-point line. It is pulling down 36 rebounds a game.

PURDUE BOILERMAKERS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 27-7
ATS: 13-20-1
O/U: 18-16

The big red flag for laying that many points in this game is Purdue’s dreadful 2-11-1 record ATS going all the way back to the end of January. The Boilermakers have not covered the closing number in their last 10 games, including a PUSH in a six-point win over Northwestern on Feb. 16. They closed as double-digit favorites in four of those previous 10 contests.

Overall, Purdue is 27-7 SU with a 13-20-1 record ATS. This betting record includes a costly 12-20-1 mark closing as a favorite. The Boilermakers were 3-4 ATS in seven previous games this season played at a neutral site. College basketball players do not focus on their team’s record ATS. However, college basketball bettors do and this record is enough to scare anyone away from betting on this team.

On the court, the Boilermakers run four deep with players averaging at least 11 points a game. Guard Jaden Ivey has had the hottest hand shooting the ball with 17.4 PPG. He has completed 46.2% of his shots from the field and 35.6% of this three-point attempts.

Purdue is averaging 79.8 PPG and shooting a solid 49.3% from the field. This is also one of the top three-point shooting teams in the nation at 39.1%. Its conversion rate from the free throw line is 70.3%. On defense, the Boilermakers basically mirror Yale with a points-allowed average of 68.8.

**Purdue has won 12 of its last 13 games when facing a non-AP-ranked school during the daytime. (AP)**

INSIDE THE STATS - YALE BULLDOGS

Record: 19-11
PS/G: 72.3 (146th)
PA/G: 68.8 (174th)

INSIDE THE STATS - PURDUE BOILERMAKERS

Record: 27-7
PS/G: 79.8 (13th)
PA/G: 68.8 (172nd)

KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH

YALE: Azar Swain - G (19.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg)
YALE: Jalen Gabbidon - G (11.6 ppg)
PUR: Jaden Ivey - G (17.4 ppg, 4.9 rpg)
PUR: Zach Edey - C (14.6 ppg, 7.8 rpg)

YALE BULLDOGS vs PURDUE BOILERMAKERS BETTING CONCLUSION

Current betting trends against the closing spread are a big part of the handicapping process but they should not be the ultimate deciding factor when betting on a game. In the case of Purdue, I am willing to make an exception. Yale has been playing at a high level for an extended period of time only making it more difficult to cover a 16-point spread.

MARCH MADNESS PICK RESOURCES

YALE BULLDOGS vs PURDUE BOILERMAKERS BETTING TRENDS

Yale has lost six of its last seven NCAA Tournament games.
Yale has covered the spread in three straight games.
Yale has won 11 of its last 13 games.
Yale has gone UNDER the point total in five straight games.
Purdue has seen three straight NCAA Tournament games go into overtime.
Purdue has failed to cover the spread in 10 straight games.
Purdue has gone UNDER the point total in eight of its last 10 games.

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Dave Schwab

Dave Schwab has been covering the sports betting industry for the past 12 years as the main focus of his specialty marketing company for online content. This endeavor followed a previous career in the field of sales and marketing in the wholesaling sector.Most of his weekly pieces focus on the rapidly expanding legal US sports betting industry. However, he still does extensive work covering betting angles that can provide a competitive edge to avid players. Dave believes that it is always a challenge to take past results and current form to try and correctly determine a future result. Sports brings out the unpredictability in what should be a fairly predictable outcome based on the stats, facts and recent trends in a particular matchup. More from Dave Schwab