Fade & Shade Team Betting Predictions

Bruce Marshall Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

It might be time for a quick history refresher on the nature of pointspread streaks.  We’re old enough to remember when Bill Walton made his varsity debut for UCLA in December of 1971, further energizing a program that didn’t seem to need any extra help; after all, the Bruins had won NCAA titles in the previous five, and seven of the preceding eight, seasons for John Wooden.  Though it would be a rebuilt roster that season after the core of the national title winners from the previous two seasons (including Sidney Wicks, Curtis Rowe, and Steve Patterson) all graduated to the NBA.

The “Walton Gang” featured not only Walton, but fellow sophs Keith Wilkes and Greg Lee, a redshirt soph in Tommy Curtis, and a couple of key holdovers from the Wicks-Rowe teams, G Henry Bibby and F Larry Farmer.  Not even the Lew Alcindor (Kareem) - led Bruins of five years earlier began with such a bang; UCLA won its opener over The Citadel, 105-49, and kept destroying all in front of it, routinely covering spreads into the mid and high 30s.  The winning and covering continued into the Final Four (though the title game vs. Florida State would be no picnic), winning yet another national title for Wooden.

Pointspreads, however, could only go so high, and when the Walton Gang began the following season in the same manner, bettors couldn’t back the Bruins fast enough.  Until about midseason, that is, when the Walton Gang suddenly stopped covering numbers. lt continued to win, all of the way to a second consecutive unbeaten campaign, but UCLA began to drop spread decisions left and right down the stretch in 1972-73. 

Into the title game at St Louis vs. Clean Gene Bartow’s Memphis State, the Bruins had dropped nine straight vs. the number.  Still, oddsmakers and wagering public were slow to react; UCLA was made a 14-point favorite.  With Walton delivering perhaps the best game in NCAA Finals annals, scoring 44 points on 21 for 22 FG shooting, the Bruins not only won but finally covered their first spread in over a month.  

The moral of the story?  Even great teams are not immune to point-spread downturns.  Be on the alert! Following are some specific teams we might be looking to "Fade and Shade" into this weekend.  We’ll be looking at other leagues in the coming weeks.

College Teams to Fade

Tulsa

Sunday's Matchup - vs. Wichita State (3:00 p.m. ET)

This figured to be a bit of a bumpy ride for new HC Erik Konkol, who arrived after winning 67 percent of his games the past seven years at La Tech.   Facing a heavy rebuild, most of Konkol’s portal adds have not made much of an impact, and the lone returning starter from last season, former UT Arlington G Sam Griffin (15.7 ppg), is not an efficient shooter, hitting just 38% from the floor.  Griffin is also not helping much with his wayward shooting from beyond the perimeter (11 for 45 across the past five games)m and after staying fairly competitive in the first round of American action, Tulsa is now losing touch, losing and failing to cover its last three by double-digit margins.  Next game: Sunday vs. Wichita State.

College Teams to Shade

Seton Hall

Sunday's Matchup - vs. DePaul (12:00 p.m. ET)

First-year HC and alum Shaheen Holloway knows all about pushing the right buttons in March after steering Saint Peter’s on a Cinderella run tot he Elite 8 last March before making to short move from Jersey City to South Orange.  But the Hall has proven beyond a doubt that it can handle the mid and lower tiers of the Big East as it has wona nd covered six of seven (including an upset of Uconn at newark on Jan. 18), and can make a serious move toward the Big Dance bubble in February if it continues to handle the entries sitting lower in the table and  can claim another scalp or two from the top tier.  Holloway's best move in the portal is paying big dividends, as former Clemson PG AL-Amir Dawes has thrived coming back to near his Newark roots, and just scored 21 in the midweek win at St. John’s.

Temple

Sunday's Matchup - at Houston (6:00 p.m. ET)

The new buzz team in the American looks to be the Owls, who opened lots of eyes with the recent shocker over Houston, part of a current four-game win streak.  It’s the first sign of real progress under fourth-year HC Aaron McKie, and the ascent began right  after Christmas, as Temple has won and covered 8 of 10 since, with four SU wins on the trot.  Spearheading the recent surge is 6-5 soph wing Khalif Battle, the same Battle who missed almost the entirety of last season with a broken foot, but is off of 25 and 26-point games, respectively, in the OT wins vs. USF and UCF.  Houston is on deck, looking for revenge, but with a now-healthy Battle, Temple looks very ornery, with some winnable games in the queue beyond Sunday. 

Stanford

Sunday's Matchup - at Colorado (7:00 p.m. ET)

Five wins on the spin are giving HC Jerod Haase a chance to save his job, which seemed a far-fetched notion just a couple of weeks ago.  But Haase has tweaked his lineup, using Davidson transfer Michael Jones off the bench as a sixth man...and presto, Jones is suddenly hitting better than 50% of his triples in the win streak after laboring at 27% beyond the arc previous.  Along the way, 7-1 French import soph Maxime Raynaud has emerged, and the Tree just proved it could win on the Pac-12 trail on Thursday night at Utah.  Next game: Sunday at Colorado. 

Fade & Shade Bonus Teams

FADE

• Albany
• Georgia Tech
• Pepperdine
• San Diego

SHADE

• South Florida
• Boston College
• Long Beach
• Navy
• Pacific

Bruce Marshall

Bruce's unique and colorful brand of football and basketball analysis, as well as informed commentary on the national and international sports scene, has made him an in-demand guest for many years on numerous sports talk radio and TV shows across the country. Bruce's vast array of editorial work has also been featured in VegasInsider, along with the Las Vegas Review-Journal and New York Post. Bruce, who is also in the midst of several book projects, combines all of his work while splitting time between Celebration, Florida and Henderson, Nevada. More from Bruce Marshall