TCU vs. Kansas State Picks, Predictions, Odds

The meat grinder that is the Big 12 will continue to pit some of the best teams in the country against each other on Tuesday night. The TCU Horned Frogs and the Kansas State Wildcats will square off for the second time this season, as Kansas State will look to get payback for a 14-point loss to TCU in Fort Worth back on January 14.

Jamie Dixon's Horned Frogs have lost three of their last four road games, but they did hammer the Kansas Jayhawks in Lawrence a couple weeks ago, so they may enjoy another trip to the Sunflower State.

On Tuesday, February 7, 2023, the Kansas State Wildcats will face the TCU Horned Frogs at Bramlage Coliseum in the Little Apple of Manhattan, Kansas. Tip off is slated for 9 p.m. ET on ESPNU.

TCU Horned Frogs vs. Kansas State Wildcats Betting Prediction

Kansas State has dropped three of its last four games and lost at home for the first time all season on Saturday. The Wildcats had a 14-point lead on Texas with less than a minute remaining in the first half, but the Longhorns roared out of the gate in the second half and cut the lead to one point within the first five minutes.

That led to a disheartening loss, yet Kansas State should be able to bounce back in this one. Standout forward Keyontae Johnson only played 25 minutes because he was in foul trouble early against Texas, but we are unlikely to see a repeat of that on Tuesday night.

Score Prediction: Kansas State 72, TCU 65
Best Bet: Kansas State -3

TCU Horned Frogs vs. Kansas State Wildcats Betting Odds

TCU Horned Frogs vs. Kansas State Wildcats Betting Resources

Date: Tuesday, Feb. 7, 2023
TV-Time: ESPNU, 9:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Bramlage Coliseum
Location: Manhattan, Kansas
Matchup
Expert Picks

Big 12 Tournament Odds

TCU Horned Frogs vs. Kansas State Wildcats Betting Stats

TCU Horned Frogs
SU: 17-6
ATS: 13-9-1
O/U: 14-9
PPG: 77.3
OPPG: 66.0

Kansas State Wildcats
SU: 18-5
ATS: 15-8
O/U: 13-10
PPG: 76.7
OPPG: 68.3

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

Updated on 01/09/2025

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TCU Horned Frogs Betting Analysis

The Horned Frogs are one of the worst three-point shooting teams in college basketball. They rank 351st nationally from beyond the arc, making just 29.1% of their threes. Emanuel Miller is the second leading scorer with 13.2 PPG and 6.4 RPG, and he is by far the best three-point shooter at 48.4%. However, he doesn't shoot often with only 31 attempts, and no one else is making more than 32% of their threes.

Still, TCU is a top team because the Horned Frogs do most everything else well. Since this is a Jamie Dixon team, you know the Horned Frogs are great in defense, and they rank 15th nationally per Ken Pomeroy's most recent ratings. They rank in the top 40 in effective field goal percentage, and they force a lot of steals too. Five different players are averaging at least one steal a game, helping TCU rank among the top 20 defenses in terms of turnover percentage.

Mike Miles Jr. is the leading scorer with 18.1 PPG, but he doesn't do much else other than put the ball in the basket. Miles is making 53.2% of his field goals thanks in part to his ability to get to the cup off the dribble. Senior Damian Baugh has been extremely consistent, scoring between 9 and 19 points every time out this season, and he leads the Horned Frogs with 5.2 APG. The Horned Frogs are a very deep team too with 10 players averaging at least 10 MPG, as Dixon matches his top three players with various lineup combinations.

Kansas State Wildcats Betting Analysis

There are two players to keep an eye on for Kansas State in this game. Keyontae Johnson has been excellent after transferring in from Florida. Johnson is the Wildcats' leading scorer and rebounder with 18.1 PPG and 7.7 RPG, and he is shooting the lights out. He is making 52.3% of his field goals and 40.3% of his threes, but he has been in foul trouble the last two games. Johnson will need to rein his play at least somewhat in order to stay on the floor for Kansas State.

Markquis Nowell is the other player to watch for the Wildcats. Nowell is averaging 16.8 PPG and is one of the best set-up men in the country. He is averaging 7.8 APG, as he does an excellent job of finding open teammates in a position to shoot. Nowell isn't a very efficient scoring option himself, making under 40% of his field goals on the year, but he would probably be a first-round pick if he wasn't 5'8.

Kansas State is pretty good on offense, but the Wildcats really shine in defense. Opponents are only making 29% of their three-point attempts as these guards do a very god job of challenging shooters. They can hold their own on the boards too, even though one of their starters is undersized.