West Virginia vs. Iowa State Picks, Predictions, Odds

There's no way that the West Virginia Mountaineers would be on the bubble in any other conference. West Virginia is 16-13 and 5-11 in conference play, but the Mountaineers play in the insanely loaded Big 12.

WVU has played a whopping 14 games against Quad 1 opponents, and the Mountaineers are 4-10 in those games with wins over TCU, Iowa State, Pittsburgh, and Texas Tech.

Joe Lunardi currently has the Mountaineers as the last team in the NCAA Tournament that won't have to play in Dayton, but the Mountaineers are really in need of a win against the Iowa State Cyclones on Monday night to feel good about their chances.

The Iowa State Cyclones will play their final regular season home game on Monday, February 27, 2023, when they welcome the West Virginia Mountaineers to James H. Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa. Tip of is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN2.

West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Iowa State Cyclones Betting Prediction

Although the West Virginia Mountaineers are tied with the Texas Tech Red Raiders as the second-worst team in the Big 12, they are a top half of the team in the conference per Ken Pomeroy's metrics.

Pomeroy's numbers have WVU as the 20th best team in the country, as the Mountaineers have been extremely unlucky. They are 12-1 in games against non-Quad 1 opponents, proving that its only the truly elite teams they struggle to beat. These factors and a previous win over Iowa State has me jumping on the Mountaineers as a modest underdog in Ames.

Best Bet: West Virginia +4.5
Score Prediction: West Virginia 70, Iowa State 66

West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Iowa State Cyclones Betting Odds

West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Iowa State Cyclones Betting Resources

Date: Monday, Feb. 27, 2023
TV-Time: ESPN2, 9:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Hiton Coliseum
Location: Ames, Iowa
Matchup
Expert Picks

Big 12 Tournament Odds

West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Iowa State Cyclones Betting Stats

West Virginia Mountaineers
SU: 16-13
ATS: 14-15
O/U: 19-10
PPG: 76.5
OPPG: 70.8

Iowa State Cyclones
SU: 17-11
ATS: 14-14
O/U: 9-19
PPG: 68.3
OPPG: 62.0

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

Updated on 11/14/2024

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West Virginia Mountaineers Betting Analysis

Bob Huggins' teams are very physical, so there will be a lot of free throw shooting in this game. West Virginia gets to the free throw line more often than all but 15 times, and the Mountaineers are in the Top 25 in free throws allowed too. That makes the rebounding battle even more important than it usually is as some early fouls could greatly change the trajectory of this one.

Leading scorer Erik Stevenson didn't have his best performance the first time these teams met. Stevenson finished with just eight points and made just one field goal on the night. He has been on fire in recent games though with at least 23 points in three straight games for the Mountaineers. He is making a career-high 43.5% of his field goals and 39.5% of his three-point attempts.

The best rebounders on West Virginia are Tre Mitchell, Emmitt Matthews Jr., and Jimmy Bell Jr. These are the big men that see the most playing time for the Mountaineers, so it makes sense that they grab the most boards. Mitchell is the second leading scorer on WVU at 11.8 PPG, and he is the only one of the three that can reliably stretch the floor with his shooting. Matthews had 20 points against Iowa State in the earlier meeting between these teams, while Bell is a high-energy big man that can provide scoring and rebounding in spurts.

Iowa State Cyclones Betting Analysis

In the first game between these teams in Morgantown, Iowa State had three players foul out and two more players finished with four fouls. Only a handful of the 30 fouls the Cyclones picked up came in the final few minutes too, so they are almost certain to have better luck with the whistles at home.

The three leading scorers on Iowa State are all shooting less than 40% from the field. Jaren Holmes, Gabe Kalscheur, and Caleb Grill are all averaging at least 10.0 PPG, but they have not been very efficient. That's why this Cyclones' offense ranks outside the top 100 according to Ken Pomeroy, and they have other big picture issues too. Iowa State turns the ball over often, struggles to get to the free throw line, and the team is also one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the country.

Despite the issues with the offense, the Cyclones have punched their ticket to the NCAA Tournament already because they have a top ten defense. Iowa State forces the second-most turnovers in the country, turning over opponents on 25.7% of their possessions. Tamin Lipsey is an elite perimeter defender for a freshman, and Osun Osunniyi is a great shot blocker on the interior.