First Four: Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi State Picks, Predictions, Odds

2023 NCAA Tournament Picks
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Jeff Capel III needed to lead the Pittsburgh Panthers to the NCAA Tournament in his fifth year at the helm in order to save his job. Capel rose to the occasion, and the Panthers are making their first trip to March Madness in seven years, but they look a lot different than they did under former coach Jamie Dixon. Pitt is no longer a heavily defensive team, as the Panthers are giving up 85 PPG in their last five games. That has the offensively challenged Mississippi State Bulldogs licking their chops.

The second First Four game will pit the Pittsburgh Panthers against the Mississippi State Bulldogs for the right to be the No. 11 seed in the Midwest Region and to face the Iowa State Cyclones on St. Patrick's Day. This game will be played on Tuesday, March 14, 2023, at 9:10 p.m. ET on truTV from the UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio.

Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Prediction

There's a big question mark for Pitt coming into this game. Fede Federiko suffered a knee injury in the first half of the Panthers' loss to Duke on Wednesday, and he is listed as a game-time decision. Federiko is Pitt's best interior defender by a wide margin, and the Blue Devils absolutely dominated the Panthers down low once he exited. Mississippi State's best offensive weapon is 6'11 center Tolu Smith, and Federiko is the only player on the roster that can probably contain him. If Federiko doesn't play, that will force freshmen Guillermo Diaz Graham and Jorge Diaz Graham into the lineup, as no one else on the roster has the size to slow him down. It's a precarious position for Pitt, and that makes Mississippi State the play at this price.

Best Bet: Mississippi State -2
Score Prediction: Mississippi State 74 Pittsburgh 64

Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Resources

Date: Tuesday, Mar. 14, 2023
TV-Time: truTV, 9:10 p.m. ET
Venue: Dayton Arena
Location: Dayton, Ohio
Matchup
Expert Picks

Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Stats

Pittsburgh Panthers
SU: 22-11
ATS: 22-10-1
O/U: 21-12
PPG: 76.1
OPPG: 70.5

Mississippi State Bulldogs
SU: 22-12
ATS: 16-16-1
O/U: 13-20
PPG: 65.9
OPPG: 61

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

Updated on 01/03/2025

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Pittsburgh Panthers Betting Analysis

Capel built his team with seniors transferring in from other programs, and Blake Hinson has been the best of the bunch. Hinson is averaging 15.6 PPG and 6.2 RPG, and he made 38.4% of his threes on over 230 attempts from downtown. As an Ole Miss transfer, he has prior experience against Mississippi State, but Hinson hadn't taken the court for two years before this season.

Greg Elliott is an excellent three-point shooter too, knocking down 42% of his threes on over 175 attempts. Elliott had a down year at Marquette last season, but he has rediscovered the shooting touch he had as a sophomore when he was a dangerous perimeter shooter. Unfortunately for Hinson and Elliott, Mississippi State defends at an elite level. The Bulldogs rank sixth in Ken Pomeroy's defensive efficiency, so they might struggle from distance.

Jamarius Burton is averaging 15.6 PPG, and he is one of the top set-up men in the ACC along with teammate Nelly Cummings (a Colgate transfer). Burton is averaging 4.4 APG and Cummings is averaging 4.8 APG, as the Panthers use a lot of pick-and-roll to get off quality shots. We have seen Mississippi State defend the PNR very well this season, so that has the potential to further short circuit this offense.

Meanwhile, the Panthers have been bad on defense. Capel has admitted as much, telling reporters, "We haven't defended well in about a month." Pittsburgh ranks 142nd in defensive efficiency, and this unit would be much worse if Federiko was out or significantly hampered. He is responsible for 1.7 BPG of Pitt's 4.1 BPG, and Hinson is the second-tallest regular rotation player at 6'7. The third-tallest regular rotation player is Burton at 6'4.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Analysis

Tolu Smith is the leader for the Bulldogs. Smith is averaging 15.8 PPG and 8.5 RPG, and he ranks 22nd nationally in offensive rebounding rate. At 6'11 and 245 pounds, he is tough to contain in the low post, and that allows Smith to make 57.6% of his field goals. He was awesome against Florida in the SEC Tournament, willing the Bulldogs to a win, and he has been to the free throw line 42 times in his last three games. However, Smith is not a great free throw shooter, making just 58.5% of his free throws on the year.

Mississippi State was the worst three-point shooting team in the country this season. The Bulldogs made just 26.6% of their three-point attempts as a team, and Dashawn Davis was the most effective perimeter shooter of the bunch. Davis is averaging 8.5 PPG while making 34.3% of his threes, and only one other Mississippi State player is making over 30% of his threes.

The Bulldogs do an excellent job on defense, and that's the reason why they made the NCAA Tournament. They have true depth and can come at you in waves with 10 players averaging at least 10 MPG. Mississippi State ranks 19th in defensive field goal percentage, and they are a top ten team when it comes to steals with Davis, Cameron Matthews, and Shakeel Moore all ranking in the top 100 nationally in steal rate per Pomeroy's numbers.