First Four: Southeast Missouri State vs. Texas A&M Corpus-Christi Picks, Predictions, Odds

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The Field of 68 will be narrowed to 64 over two days in Dayton starting with a clash between a couple No. 16 seeds. The Southeast Missouri State Redhawks will face the Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders on Tuesday evening with the winner facing the Alabama Crimson Tide on Thursday in Birmingham.

This is the second NCAA Tournament appearance for SEMO, and the third trip to March Madness for Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. Both programs are looking for their first NCAA Tournament victory.

On Tuesday, March 14, 2023, the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks will face the Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio. This First Four game will tip off at 6:40 p.m. ET on truTV.

SE Missouri State vs. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Betting Prediction

This is the second straight trip to Dayton for the Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders. They lost to Texas Southern in the First Four last year, but the Islanders are favored by the college basketball betting odds over the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks.

SEMO was the No. 5 seed in the Ohio Valley Conference and knocked off Morehead State and Tennessee Tech to make the NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, Texas A&M-CC was the best team in the Southland Conference during the regular season and held serve in the conference tournament. The Islanders are the best No. 16 seed in Dayton, and they will prove that on Tuesday night.

Best Bet: Texas A&M-CC -3.5
Score Prediction: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 78, Southeast Missouri State 70

SE Missouri State vs. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Betting Odds

SE Missouri State vs. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Betting Resources

Date: Tuesday, Mar. 14, 2023
TV-Time: truTV, 6:40 p.m. ET
Venue: Dayton Arena
Location: Dayton, Ohio
Matchup
Expert Picks

SE Missouri State vs. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Betting Stats

SE Missouri State Redhawks
SU: 19-16
ATS: 19-13-1
O/U: 21-12
PPG: 77.7
OPPG: 76.0

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders
SU: 23-10
ATS: 17-12
O/U: 18-10-1
PPG: 80.4
OPPG: 72.9

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

Southeast Missouri State Redhawks Betting Analysis

Southeast Missouri State is below average on both offense and defense. The Redhawks rank 243rd in offensive efficiency and 263rd in defensive efficiency per Ken Pomeroy. They are able to get to the free throw line often, as Phillip Russell and Chris Harris both draw at least six fouls per game, and Russell and Harris are the leading scorers on the team with 18.2 PPG and 15.4 PPG. They are both very accurate free throw shooters too with Russell sinking 81.4% of his freebies and Harris making 77.7% of his shots from the line.

The Redhawks are hoping that Aquan Smart will be able to play in this game. Smart missed the OVC Championship Game with a foot/ankle injury, and he was in a boot for a week, but he reportedly went through a full practice on Monday. The sophomore guard isn't a very efficient shooter, but he is arguably the best perimeter defender on the team, and SEMO will be at a disadvantage if he's not 100%.

There is a big problem that the Redhawks have on defense coming into this game. They send opponents to the free throw line at a ridiculous rate with SEMO ranking in the bottom ten teams in the country in this regard. The Redhawks haven't been punished for this too much as teams are making less than 70% of their free throws against this team, but Texas A&M-Corpus Christi is one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country. Additionally, the Islanders have solid perimeter shooters, and the Redhawks struggle with perimeter defense.

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders Betting Analysis

Trevian Tennyson could be the highest scorer in Dayton over the next two days. Tennyson paces the Islanders with 15.7 PPG, and he is surgical with his shot. He is making 42.7% of his three-point attempts on over 210 tries, and he is also sinking 92.4% of his free throws (ranking fourth in the nation). He had 18 points in the First Four last year, but it wasn't enough for the Islanders to get the win.

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi gets to the free throw line often, and the Islanders make more free throws than all but one team in the nation. Tennyson leads the way in this regard, but Terrion Murdix, Isaac Mushila, and others have combined to help this program make 80.5% of it free throws as a a whole. Additionally, Ross Williams is making 38.6% of his triples to give the Islanders another perimeter shooter.

Unfortunately, the Islanders commit a lot of fouls on defense and struggle with interior defense. Teams are making 54.1% of their twos against Texas A&M-CC as this is the third smallest team in Division I basketball. Mushila is the tallest starter on the team at just 6'5, so that could lead to a lot of playing time for De'Lazarus Keys. The good news for the Islanders is that the Redhawks don't have a starter that is taller than 6'5 either.