College Football Games of the Year: How Sharps are Fading Notre Dame Already

Patrick Everson Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

At this time of year, college football betting trends tend to focus on the protracted Week 1 odds and championship futures. But there are certainly opportunities worth exploring elsewhere.

So it is that, once again, South Point sportsbook has posted its annual College Football Games of the Year menu. Dozens of matchups stretching from Week 2 through Week 13 dot the college football odds board.

South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews provides insights on early returns, including sharp bettors' apparent distaste for Notre Dame in the college football betting market.

College Football Odds

Down on the Domers

Notre Dame is a perennially popular public team. As such, even without a national title to their credit since 1988, the Fighting Irish always land several slots in Andrews' College Football Games of the Year.

For the 2023 season, Notre Dame is in five of those matchups. And the sharp bettors spoke early and often on those games, after Andrews first posted odds Aug. 4.

In all five instances, the number moved against the Fighting Irish. To which Andrews was somewhat surprised.

"I'm a Penn State fan. I'm totally ambivalent to other teams. I just try to put out the best number I can," Andrews said. "I actually think Notre Dame is gonna be pretty good this year. They've got a good quarterback in [Wake Forest transfer] Sam Hartman. And Marcus Freeman got better as a coach during his first year."

Yet the sharp side was the other side early on, in all five games.

In Week 2 at North Carolina State, the Irish opened -7 and dropped to -6. In Week 4 hosting Ohio State, Notre Dame went from +6.5 to +7.5. In Week 7 against USC, the Irish opened as 1-point home 'dogs and quickly moved out to +3. The line has since inched down to +2.5.

Week 9 brought the largest move of the five games. Notre Dame opened -13.5 vs. Pitt and sped down to an 11-point home chalk in South Point's college football betting market. And in Week 10, the Irish slipped from +6 to +7 at Clemson.

"I gave Notre Dame the best power ranking I could come up with, and a lot of people think I'm wrong. We'll see how it plays out," Andrews said. "A few years ago (2018), I opened Notre Dame pick 'em against Michigan and got flooded with Michigan money. And Notre Dame beat them."

More Difference of Opinion

Andrews was also keen on Illinois in setting his College Football Games of the Year odds. But much like with Notre Dame, the wiseguys weren't nearly that loving of the Illini.

Two examples:

• In Week 3 against Penn State, Illinois opened as an 8-point home pup and bettors came in on the Nittany Lions, pushing the Illini out to +9.5.
• In Week 12 at Iowa, the Illini opened +3 and got shoved out to a 6-point underdog.

"That's a big move," Andrews said of the Illinois-Iowa contest. "Illinois was one I liked, and Florida State was another I think will be pretty good. The market has definitely moved against me."

In Florida State's case, Andrews pointed to movement in the Week 4 showdown against ACC rival Clemson. Both teams are ranked in the preseason top 10. The Seminoles opened as 1-point road 'dogs and are already out to +3.5 after early sharp action landed on the Tigers.

"People expect Clemson to be right where it was a couple years ago. I don't see that yet," Andrews said of the perennial College Football Playoff contender that took a step back last season, missing the CFP.

And recall, as noted above, sharp money also took Clemson against Notre Dame.

"I have Clemson less than what the market is dictating, and I have Florida State rated higher. So the sharps disagree with me on both sides there," Andrews said.

Backing the Buckeyes

Ohio State is the co-second choice in South Point's College Football Playoff championship odds. So clearly, Andrews recognizes the Buckeyes have a very good team, per usual.

Georgia is the tidy +200 favorite at South Point, followed by Ohio State and Alabama at +600. But Andrews isn't entirely sold on the Buckeyes.

"I think Ohio State is down a notch, but not too far, from last season," he said. "There are 128 teams that would like to have Ohio State's problems."

Early action on Games of the Year indicates bettors like the Buckeyes. As mentioned above, Ohio State moved from -6.5 to -7.5 at Notre Dame in Week 4. In the season-ending showdown at Michigan, the Buckeyes opened +3 and were quickly bet to +2.

All the above noted – on Notre Dame, Illinois, Florida State, Ohio State etc. – Andrews' Games of the Year odds stood up to the initial onslaught fairly well. The large majority of the 76 matchups saw the point spread remain at the opening number.

"Last year, I don't think I did that good of a job following the transfer portal. We got beat up pretty good on our openers," Andrews said. "This year, most games didn't move that much. I think I did a pretty good job. When the lines don't move, you feel like you got it right."

Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson is a senior reporter for VegasInsider. Based in Las Vegas since 1994, he's worked in the sports betting journalism/content space for more than a decade. He's most known for his deep roster of contacts behind sportsbook counters, providing readers and viewers with the ins-and-outs of how events are being bet. He's also a thought leader in the sports betting space, often appearing on or moderating panels at national conferences. More from Patrick Everson