Boise State vs. San Jose State Predictions, Odds

• December 19, 2020
• By Jonathan Willis
• VegasInsider.com

It’s been a historic season for San Jose State.

Head coach Brent Brennan went 3-22 in his first two seasons with the Spartans, but not even the most optimistic fans would have believed the team was poised to win a conference title after improving to 5-7 last year.

San Jose State is just one game away from winning the Mountain West for the first time (and winning its first conference title in almost three decades), but perennial power Boise State is standing in the way.

Mountain West Championship Betting Resources

• Week 16 Matchup: Mountain West Championship
• Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
• Venue: Sam Boyd Stadium
• Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
• Date: Saturday, Dec. 19, 2020
• Time: FOX
• TV: 4:15 p.m. ET
• Bet: BetMGM | BetRivers | FanDuel | PointsBet | All

Mountain West Championship Betting Odds

Line Movements

• Spread: Boise State -6.5
• Money-Line: Boise State -240, San Jose State +200
• Total: 56

Odds Subject to Change

How to Handicap Boise State vs. San Jose State

These teams were originally supposed to meet in Boise on Thanksgiving weekend. San Jose State made the trip, but the game ended up being canceled just a few hours prior to kickoff after a noticeable uptick in COVID cases for Boise State.

Boise State had no trouble with its first three MWC opponents, but Hawaii and Wyoming put up more of a fight than expected. The Broncos were unable to cover the spread against either of those teams, winning both games by just eight points.

Boise should have covered against Hawaii though. The Broncos were up 40-17 with 10 minutes left before the Rainbow Warriors converted a few fourth downs and received a few fortunate calls to get within the number.

The Broncos had their games against San Jose State and UNLV canceled before finally returning to action last week against Wyoming. Neither offense was able to do much in a driving snowstorm, but Boise State came out on top 17-9 as Khalil Shakir had one of his best games yet given the conditions.

This will be the fourth game this year where San Jose State is an underdog. The Spartans pulled off an upset as a 7.5-point underdog against Air Force in the season opener, and they defeated San Diego State 28-17 as a double-digit underdog in early November.

The Spartans needed to beat Nevada last week to clinch their spot in the MWC Championship Game. San Jose State was a three-point home underdog and it looked like Nevada would get the win after pulling ahead 20-7 at halftime.

However, the Spartans came alive in the second half with Shamar Garrett returning the opening kickoff 98 yards for a score to kickstart a 23-0 second half for SJSU.

Boise State enters the Mountain West Championship as the favorite, going OVER the total in five of six games this season. (AP)

Betting Analysis – Boise State Broncos

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• 2020: 5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS, 5-1 O/U

Quarterback Hank Bachmeier missed two games due to injury, but he has been solid on the field. Bachmeier is completing 66.1 percent of his passes for 8.1 YPA with six touchdowns and two interceptions this year. He wasn’t able to play against BYU in Boise State’s lone loss (reportedly due to COVID), and the Broncos’ offense would have been much more efficient if he was able to play.

Shakir has been one of the most dangerous receivers in the country this season. He leads the Broncos with 46 receptions for 634 yards and six touchdowns, and Bryan Harsin has used him as a runner too due to his playmaking ability. Shakir is the second-leading rusher on the Broncos with 152 yards on 9.5 YPC.

Andrew Van Buren is the leading rusher at Boise State. Van Buren hasn’t been particularly effective though, averaging 3.6 YPC on the season with eight touchdowns.

He replaced George Holani after Holani was injured in the first quarter against Air Force back on Halloween, but Holani might see more action this week after finally returning to action against Wyoming last Saturday.

Boise State is allowing 26.0 PPG and 352.7 YPG. Opponents are converting just 26.4 percent of their third downs against the Broncos largely thanks to the best secondary in the MWC. The Broncos are allowing quarterbacks to complete just 50 percent of their passes for 6.3 YPA.

That secondary has helped this defense record 16 sacks with JUCO transfer Shane Irwin leading the way with six sacks. Avery Williams is one of the best defensive backs in the conference and was recently named First Team All-MWC.

Betting Analysis - San Jose State Spartans

• 2020: 6-0 SU, 5-0-1 ATS, 1-5 O/U

Nick Starkel has finally found a home after stints with Texas A&M and Arkansas. The senior quarterback is having his best season yet with the Spartans, completing 66.3 percent of his passes for 9.1 YPA with 13 touchdowns and four interceptions. The offensive line deserves a lot of credit for his success as he has only been sacked three ties in six games.

Back-up quarterback Nick Nash comes in with certain packages, and he is a dual-threat quarterback. Nash is completing 63.3 percent of his passes for 6.8 YPA when he throws, but he is more likely to run and is averaging 5.6 YPC.

Tyler Nevens has been one of the most dangerous running backs in the MWC the last two weeks, carrying the ball 28 times for 336 yards and three touchdowns in SJSU’s last two games.

He is averaging 8.9 YPC thanks to those performances, but he is splitting time with Kairee Robinson at running back. Robinson isn’t the same big play threat though, averaging 4.0 YPC.

Bailey Gaither is currently just behind Shakir in the MWC with 36 receptions for 627 yards and four touchdowns this season.

Tre Walker is the second-best receiver with 31 catches for 409 yards and three touchdowns, while the only other player with more than 10 receptions is tight end Derrick Deese Jr.

The Spartans are allowing 17.5 PPG and 355.7 YPG this season. They have done a solid job stopping the run, giving up 3.4 YPC and 127.5 YPG on the ground.

Cade Hall is having a big year with eight sacks on his way to being named MWC Defensive Player of the Year.

Viliami Fehoko and Kyle Harmon were First Team All-MWC selections.

Historically Speaking

Head-to-Head

San Jose State has never beaten Boise State.

These teams first met as FBS foes back in 2001 and the Broncos hammered the Spartans 56-6 in their first meeting.

Boise State has won six games in this series by 30 or more points, and SJSU has only kept it within one score twice.

Last Meeting

The Spartans jumped out to a 14-0 lead over the Broncos last year before eventually running out of gas in a 52-42 shootout win for the Broncos.

Williams opened the scoring for the Broncos with a 66-yard punt return touchdown late in the first quarter, while Holani and Van Buren combined to run for 211 yards and five touchdowns.

Notable Betting Trends

-- Boise State is 5-2 ATS in the last seven games

-- The over cashed in five straight Boise State games before the snow game against Wyoming last week

-- San Jose State is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 games as an underdog

Mountain West Championship Predictions

• Score Prediction: San Jose State 27, Boise State 24
• Best Bet: San Jose State +6.5

Mountain West Betting History Results & Notes

History - Betting Notes

• Boise State has made the most appearances (5), while going 'under' each time
• Four of the last five MWC title games have been decided by three points or less
• Underdogs making their first appearance in the MWC championship are 0-4 SU
• The ‘under’ has gone 6-1 in the first seven MWC title games

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