Toledo Rockets vs. Bowling Green Falcons Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

6 minute read

Nov. 10, 2021

Dan Dobish
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The Toledo Rockets (4-5, 2-3 MAC) travel down Interstate 75 to Doyt L. Perry Stadium to meet the rival Bowling Green Falcons (3-6, 1-4) on Wednesday at 7 p.m. The two schools are separated by approximately 25 miles of highway, and they are looking to secure the Battle of I-75 Trophy. The game can be viewed on CBS Sports Network.

Score Prediction

Toledo 33, Bowling Green 25

Best Bets

Bowling Green +10 (-110)

Over 50.5 (-110)

First-half Over 26 (-105)

Toledo Rockets vs. Bowling Green Falcons Predictions

The Rockets lost a heartbreaker to Eastern Michigan at the Glass Bowl last week, falling 52-49 as nine-point favorites. While that might be surprising, the OVER result was even more shocking, as it snapped a 6-0 UNDER run dating back to Sept. 11, which was Toledo's near-miss at Notre Dame. The non-cover was something we've seen a lot from Toledo lately, as it is 1-3 ATS in the previous four outings after a 4-1 ATS start.

The Falcons have been a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde team this season. Bowling Green opened the season 5-0 ATS, including a 14-10 outright win at Minnesota on Sept. 25 as 30.5-point underdogs. They also played division first-place teams Kent State and Northern Illinois tough, covering in one-score losses in October. But they were pounded by Akron as a 14-point favorite, and the Falcons were drummed by Eastern Michigan at home on Oct. 23, losing 55-24. So naturally they hit the road and outscored Buffalo 56-44 in a video game-like win as 13.5-point underdogs last week.

Toledo leads the all-time series 41-40-4, winning 10 of the past 11 meetings, including last season's 38-3 win in Toledo on Nov. 4, 2020. The Falcons won 20-7 at home on Oct. 12, 2019 in their only victory in the series since 2009.

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Toledo Rockets vs. Bowling Green Falcons Betting Odds

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Toledo Rockets vs. Bowling Green Falcons Betting Resources

Matchup: MAC
Date: Wednesday, November 10, 2021
Venue: Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Location: Bowling Green, Ohio
TV-Time: CBSSN - 7:00 p.m. ET

Toledo Rockets Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 4-5
ATS: 5-4
O/U: 3-6
ATS - Home: 2-3
ATS - Away: 3-1

The Rockets have been sputtering lately, winning just once in the past four outings overall. Facing the rival Falcons could be just the elixir they need to cure its ills. Toledo racked up a season-high tying 49 points last week, but they just couldn't stop the pass. While Toledo outpaced EMU 211-to-130 in rushing yards, and 461-to-360 in passing yards, it was the big runs that killed the Rockets. A 32-yard run by RB Juwan Hamilton in the fourth quarter was the real back breaker, putting EMU up 52-36 at that point before Toledo worked their way back to within three.

Toledo has posted a 5-1 ATS mark across the past six games on the road, while going 7-1 ATS in the previous eight on the road against teams with a losing home record. In other words, Toledo wins the games they're supposed to win with very little surprise. The Rockets are also 4-1 ATS in the past five as a road favorite, although they need not stray very far from campus for this battle.

The Rockets don't do any one thing particularly well, but they don't do anything particularly poor, either. Toledo is 58th in total yards per game (411.9), 56th in passing yards per game (242.4), 61st in rushing yards (169.4) and 48th in points per game (30.8), while ranking 36th in total yards per game (36th), 200.3 passing yards per game (32nd), 144.6 rushing yards per game (59th) and 35th in points per game (22.0) allowed.

Bowling Green Falcons Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 3-6
ATS: 7-2
O/U: 4-5
ATS - Home: 2-2
ATS - Away: 5-0

Bowling Green is still alive for a bowl berth, but it must win out against Toledo, Miami (Ohio) and Ohio. It's actually do-able, but the biggest obstacle might be this home rivalry game. Toledo has handed Bowling Green its lunch for the better part of the past three decades, going 19-7 SU.

The Falcons have been consistent at the betting window, covering seven of nine games overall, although Bowling Green has split the past four games, going 2-2 ATS. UNDER bettors were all about Bowling Green earlier in the season, hitting all five games from Sept. 2-Oct. 2, but the OVER is now a perfect 4-0 across the past four outings. That's because the offense has been a lot better, going for 20, 26, 24 and 56 during the four-game span, while the defense has been terrible, yielding 35, 34, 55 and 44.

Bowling Green has an impressive 7-1 ATS mark across the past eight as an underdog, but its trends are as inconsistent as its play on the field. The Falcons are also 4-9 ATS in the past 13 inside the MAC, while going 8-23 ATS in the past 31 games at home. BGSU is also 1-4 ATS in the past five after a bye, and 1-6 ATS in the past seven in the month of September. But again, the Falcons are 7-2 ATS in nine games overall this season.

Bowling Green are the MAC cover kings, going 7-2 ATS this season. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Toledo Rockets

Record: 4-5
VI Ranking: 92
Points Scored: 277
Points Allowed: 198
PS/G: 30.8
PA/G: 22.0

Inside the Stats - Bowling Green Falcons

Record: 3-6
VI Ranking: 100
Points Scored: 212
Points Allowed: 275
PS/G: 23.6
PA/G: 30.6

Key Players to Watch

TOL: DeQuan Finn - QB (82/147, 1,185 yards, 14 total TD, 1 INT)
TOL: Bryant Koback - RB (135 attempts, 822 yards, 7 TD)
BG: Matt McDonald - QB (188/308, 2,127 yards, 14 total TD, 7 INT)
BG: Tyrone Broden - WR (31 catches, 543 yards, 5 TD)

Toledo Rockets vs. Bowling Green Falcons Betting Conclusion

I think Toledo is a little more balanced, and Bowling Green is going to have trouble containing dual-threat QB DeQuan Finn. He hasn't made a lot of mistakes this season, and he has do it with his arm and his legs. The Rockets are smarting after a costly lost in the Glass Bowl to EMU last week, and they'll be looking to take out their frustrations on the pesky and inconsistent Falcons. It's like a yearly rite of passage these days, after Bowling Green dominated the early days of the series. In fact, 2020 was the first time Toledo ever had a lead in the all-time series, thanks in large part to a 10-1 SU run since 2010.

Bowling Green fans can take comfort in the fact the underdog is 5-2-1 ATS in the past eight meetings, although the road team is also 5-2-1 ATS in the span. I think this one ends like so many losses for the Falcons this season. They'll keep this to a one-score game, they'll grab the cover, but they will also come up short on the scoreboard after a gutsy effort. Bowling Green isn't that far from turning things around and being a bowl team, but it isn't happening in 2021, and Toledo will make that official Wednesday.