Air Force Falcons vs. Nevada Wolf Pack Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

Nov. 19, 2021

Eytan Shander
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The Air Force still has a shot to win the Mountain West and take on one of the more notable QBs in college football. Nevada looks to bounce back from a brutal loss to SDSU by stopping the triple-option-led Air Force offense. Kickoff in Nevada set for 9:00 p.m. ET on FS1.

Score Prediction

Nevada 20, Air Force 10

Best Bets

Nevada -1

Under

Air Force Falcons vs. Nevada Wolf Pack Predictions

There may not be a game this year that features two polar opposite offenses, but this is the best way to define the matchup. Nevada throws as much as anyone, good for the 7th-ranked passing offense in the country, meanwhile Air Force runs more than anyone except one team. Air Force just doesn’t have the passing game to keep up with Carson Strong and the Wolfpack.

So, while Nevada may entertain a run or two, Air Force won’t be able to pass. It’s not the Wolfpack defense so much as Air Force just doesn’t throw. They don’t even average 100 yards per-game in the air, sitting at 240th in the country.

Strong may not win the Heisman this year, but has been the vehicle for Nevada’s success, throwing all the time. Air Force has a great defense against both the run and the pass, which will keep this game comfortably under the total.

But that’s really the only bright spot in this game for Air Force, they simply won’t be blown out of the game. They take so much clock off drives that if it doesn’t convert into points, they will be behind quickly to Nevada.

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Air Force Falcons vs. Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Odds

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Air Force Falcons vs. Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Resources

Matchup: Mountain West
Date: Friday, November 19, 2021
Venue: Mackay Stadium
Location: Reno, Nevada
TV-Time: FS1 - 9:00 p.m. ET

Air Force Falcons Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 7-3
ATS: 6-4
O/U: 3-7
ATS - Home: 2-4
ATS - Away: 4-0

No secrets when it comes to the Air Force offense – triple option until they stop, then load up more triple option. Haazig Daniels is the team’s starting QB but only throwing for 909 yards and a 5:3 TD to INT ratio. Daniels is the team’s second-leading rusher with 639 yards and 9 scores on the ground, but Brad Roberts is the workhorse.

Roberts leads the team with 1064 rushing yards and 10 scores on the ground. Not much to go around in the air, but Brandon Lewis has certainly taken advantage. Lewis leads the team with 424 receiving yards with just one TD.

Nevada Wold Pack Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 7-3
ATS: 7-3
O/U: 6-4
ATS - Home: 3-2
ATS - Away: 4-1

No shock that Strong leads the way and the Wolfpack offense. He has thrown for 3547 yards and a 28:7 TD to INT ratio. Toa Taua takes over the majority of rushing duties as he’s at 558 rushing yards and 4 scores on the ground. Three different players have over 580 receiving yards, including team-leader Romeo Doubs and TE Cole Turner. The two have combined for 15 receiving TDs, over half of Stong’s passing TDs.

Nevada has covered the spread in nine of its last 11 home games. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Air Force Falcons

Record: 7-3
VI Ranking: 59
Points Scored: 283
Points Allowed: 176
PS/G: 28.3 (67th)
PA/G: 17.6 (11th)

Inside the Stats - Nevada Wolf Pack

Record: 7-3
VI Ranking: 35
Points Scored: 349
Points Allowed: 242
PS/G: 34.9 (24th)
PA/G: 24.2 (55th)

Key Players to Watch

AF: Brad Roberts - RB (235 carries, 1,064 yards, 10 TD)
AF: Haaziq Daniels - QB (132 carries, 1,548 total yards, 14 Total TDs)
NEV: Carson Strong - QB (323/457, 3,547 yards, 28 TD, 7 INT)
NEV: Romeo Doubs - WR (64 catches, 853 yards, 7 TD)

Air Force Falcons vs. Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Conclusion

Air Force is too good on defense to get blown out, so how can we put that to use? Play the under. 52.5 is a large number but even Nevada will attempt to run. The clock will move all over the place as Air Force isn’t going to move away from running the ball, and Nevada’s lead won’t be big enough for AF to simply abandon what’s worked.

Nevada is just better equipped to move away from their focus – passing, just to run the ball. We know Air Force will do everything humanly possible to avoid throwing. That is the advantage to bet on with such a short line.