SMU Mustangs vs. UCF Knights Picks, Predictions, Odds

Daniel Dobish Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

The SMU Mustangs travel to meet the UCF Knights in an AAC conference game Wednesday at FBC Mortgage Stadium in Orlando. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on ESPN2.

Updated on 11/08/2024

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SMU MUSTANGS vs. UCF KNIGHTS BETTING PREDICTION

The Mustangs of SMU are coming off a 42-34 loss at home against TCU pm Sept. 24 last time out, which suddenly doesn't look that bad after the Horned Frogs absolutely hammered a ranked Oklahoma side this past weekend. SMU has dropped two in a row, also falling at Maryland on Sept. 17, but both of the setbacks were one-score games. SMU is 0-3 ATS in the past three outings after covering in a blowout win at North Texas to open the season.

The OVER for SMU last time out was the first of the season after three straight UNDER results to open. UNDER is risky business in SMU games, as this team is averaging 506.3 total yards of offense per game, ranking ninth in the nation, while passing for 353.0 yards per outing to check in 5th. It has also rolled up 38.5 PPG to rank 22nd overall.

UCF polished off Georgia Tech last time out by a 27-10 count, failing to cover a 21-point number as the UNDER cashed for the third consecutive outing. UCF has just a lone loss to Louisville at home on Sept. 9 as its only blemish. The defense has been stout, yielding 10, 20, 14 and 10 through four outings. In fact, the Knights rank 26th in total yards allowed (315.0), while ranking 14th in passing yards allowed (168.3) and 8th in points allowed (13.5).

It isn't all about the defense, though. UCF still has plenty of firepower on offense, including on the ground, registering 274.5 rushing yards per game to rank third in the nation, and it is 19th in total yards per game with 481.3.

Score Prediction: UCF 37, SMU 34
Best Bet: UCF -145
Best Bet: OVER 64.5 (-108)

SMU MUSTANGS vs. UCF KNIGHTS BETTING ODDS

More Odds | Futures Odds | CFP Central

SMU MUSTANGS vs. UCF KNIGHTS BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Wednesday, Oct. 5, 2022
Matchup: AAC
Venue: FBC Mortgage Stadium
Location: Orlando, Florida
Time-TV: ESPN2, 7:00 p.m. ET
Expert Picks

SMU MUSTANGS BETTING ANALYSIS

Win or lose, the Mustangs are a fun team to watch. The Mustangs averaged 46.5 PPG in the first two games, both wins, and they have scored 27 or more points in each of their four games to date, while allowing 38.0 PPG across the past two outings, both losses.

SMU QB Tanner Mordecai has completed 58.4% of his pass attempts for 1,385 yards, 12 touchdowns and five interceptions, hooking up with WR Rashee Rice for at least six receptions in all four games, and at least one touchdown (four total) in three of the team's four outings. He has also posted 132 or more receiving yards in three of four games to date.

The Mustangs are just 1-5 ATS in the past six games overall, while going 1-5 ATS in the past six road outings, too. SMU is 1-4 ATS in the past five AAC games, while going 1-4 ATS in the past five after a SU loss, and 1-4 ATS in the past five following a non-cover, too.

For totals, the UNDER has cashed in four straight road games, while the OVER is 4-0 in the past four after a bye week, and 7-0 in the past seven games on a grass surface. The OVER is also 15-7 in the past 22 road games against a team with a winning home record, too.

UCF KNIGHTS BETTING ANALYSIS

The Knights have posted a 4-0-1 ATS in the past five home games against the Mustangs, while the favorite has posted a 7-2-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings, and the home team is 8-0-1 ATS in the previous nine in the series. All signs points to UCF, according to those series trends. However, UCF is just 6-18 ATS in the past 24 games inside the conference, and 0-5 ATS in the past five after a bye week, so don't get super excited.

For the total trends, the UNDER is 5-1 in the past six games overall, while the UNDER is 6-2 in the past eight home games. The OVER is 5-2 in the past seven following a bye, however, and 4-0 in the past four appearances on a Wednesday.

We should have a mid-week treat with plenty of points here, despite the UNDER trends for UCF. Both of these teams have impressive offenses, and the OVER is your best bet.

SMU MUSTANGS vs. UCF KNIGHTS BETTING TRENDS

• SMU is 1-5 ATS in the past six games overall
• SMU is 1-5 ATS in the past six road games
• SMU is 1-4 ATS in the past five AAC games
• UCF is 6-18 ATS in the past 24 AAC games
• UCF is 0-5 ATS in the past five games after a bye
• UCF is 4-0 ATS in the past four appearances on Wednesday
• UNDER is 4-0 in the past four road games for SMU
• OVER is 7-0 in the past seven on a grass surface for SMU
• OVER is 4-0 in the past four games after a bye
• UNDER is 6-2 in the past eight home games for UCF
• OVER is 5-2 in the past seven games after a bye for UCF
• OVER is 4-0 in the past four appearances on Wednesday for UCF
• Favorite is 7-2-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings
• Home team is 8-0-1 ATS in the past nine meetings
• SMU is 0-4-1 ATS in the past five trips to UCF

Daniel Dobish

Dan is a handicapper and sports betting expert for VegasInsider with years of experience writing for a number of top publications in the industry. More from Daniel Dobish