Navy Midshipmen vs. SMU Mustangs Picks, Predictions, Odds

Daniel Dobish Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

The Navy Midshipmen travel to meet the SMU Mustangs in an American Athletic Conference game on Friday at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on ESPN.

Updated on 11/21/2024

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NAVY MIDSHIPMEN vs. SMU MUSTANGS BETTING PREDICTION

The Midshipmen of Navy have a lot of wind in their sails (see what I did there?) after paddling Tulsa 53-21 last weekend in Annapolis. It was the team's third consecutive cover, and helped Navy move to 2-1 inside the AAC. Navy lost a close one at Air Force in its most recent road game, falling 13-10 on Oct. 1. Prior to that, Navy went down to East Carolina and won 23-20 in overtime at the Rowdy Dowdy, picking up the victory as a 16-point underdog.

The Mustangs of SMU started out like a ball of fire, whipping up on North Texas of Conference USA in a road game, 48-10, before smashing Lamar of the FCS by a 45-16 count. Things looked good coming out of the Maryland game, albeit a loss. SMU fell 34-27, but hung with the Power 5 team until the end. It also lost to TCU of the Power 5, but that was a one-score game, too, losing 42-34 at this very same venue.

The wheels fell off at UCF last week in the AAC opener, however, as the Knights corralled the Mustangs 41-19, sending SMU to its third consecutive SU loss, and fourth non-cover in a row. The UNDER is also an uncharacteristic 4-1 for SMU this season.

Navy leads the all-time series 13-10, but SMU has won each of the previous two meetings, including last season's 31-24 victory in Annapolis. The last meeting in Dallas resulted in SMU galloping to a 51-37 win as the OVER easily connected on Halloween 2020.

Score Prediction: SMU 28, Navy 25
Best Bet: Navy +13.5 (-110)
Best Bet: UNDER 57.5 (-109)

NAVY MIDSHIPMEN vs. SMU MUSTANGS BETTING ODDS

More Odds | Futures Odds | CFP Central

NAVY MIDSHIPMEN vs. SMU MUSTANGS BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Friday, Oct. 14, 2022
Matchup: AAC
Venue: Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Location: Dallas, Texas
Time-TV: ESPN, 7:30 p.m. ET
Expert Picks

NAVY MIDSHIPMEN BETTING ANALYSIS

Navy has been doing its usual Navy things this season. It ranks 12th in the country running the ball, rolling up 231.8 yards per game on the ground, although the passing yardage has actually been up. The Middies have posted 110.0 yards per game through the air, good for 127th. While that doesn't seem like a lot, it's been enough to throw opposing defenses off just a little but from what we've come to expect from the Navy attack.

On defense, Navy is hard on the run, allowing just 86.8 rushing yards per game to rank 9th in the nation. It's probably all of the practice the defense has against its own offense. Navy is a respectable 43rd in total yards allowed (349.0), while yielding just 21.0 PPG, good for 39th in the nation.

The offense goes through QB Tai Lavatai, who has completed just 48.2% of his passes for 524 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT. He has rushed for 147 yards and 3 TD, but is still a work in progress in that part of the game, too. RB Daba Fofana, who I am sure has NEVER had 'The Name Game' sung to him, has 275 rushing yards and 4 TDs, averaging 4.1 yards per pop.

Navy is 6-2 ATS in the past eight games dating back to last season, while going 4-1 ATS in the past five road games. It is also 4-1 ATS in the past five Friday appearances. On totals, the middies have cashed the UNDER in 9 of the past 13, while going 5-1 in the past six on the road.

SMU MUSTANGS BETTING ANALYSIS

Like Navy, SMU is doing SMU things on offense this season. It is racking up 500.2 total yards per game to rank 9th in the country, while registering 355.0 passing yards per game to check in 4th. The Mustangs are also rolling up 34.6 PPG, ranking 36th in the land.

The problems start on defense, as SMU has been gouged for 179.8 rushing yards per game, just 106th in the country. That's not what you want to see as a bettor against Navy, as the Middies have the powerful hybrid triple-option attack, mixing in an occasional pass. SMU allows 28.6 PPG, too, so if you like the Mustangs, it's a hold-your-nose-and-hope-for-the-best type scenario.

SMU has 0-4 ATS in the past four games overall, and 0-4 ATS in the past four Friday appearances, too. It is also 1-5 ATS in the past six AAC games, although the Mustangs are a respectable 9-4 ATS in the past 13 games at home.

NAVY MIDSHIPMEN vs. SMU MUSTANGS BETTING TRENDS

• Navy is 6-2 ATS in the past eight games overall
• Navy is 4-1 ATS in the past five road games
• Navy is 22-7 ATS in the past 29 AAC games
• Navy is 10-1 ATS in the past 11 vs. losing teams
• SMU is 0-4 ATS in the past four games overall
• SMU is 9-4 ATS in the past 13 home games
• SMU is 1-5 ATS in the past six AAC games
• SMU is 0-4 ATS in the past four Friday games
• UNDER is 9-4 in the past 13 games for Navy
• UNDER is 5-1 in the past six road games for Navy
• OVER is 4-1 in the past five AAC games for Navy
• UNDER is 4-1 in the past five games for SMU
• OVER is 4-1 in the past five home games for SMU
• Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings
• Home team is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings
• OVER is 5-2 in the past seven meetings

Daniel Dobish

Dan is a handicapper and sports betting expert for VegasInsider with years of experience writing for a number of top publications in the industry. More from Daniel Dobish