Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Picks, Predictions, Odds

Daniel Dobish Sports Betting Expert

3 minute read

The Mississippi State Bulldogs and the Alabama Crimson Tide square off for an SEC West battle at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on ESPN.

Updated on 11/08/2024

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MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS vs. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE BETTING PREDICTION

First and foremost, RIP to freshman offensive lineman Samuel Westmoreland of the Mississippi State Bulldogs. The O-lineman from Tupelo, Miss. was just 18 years old, and he passed away Wednesday. Seeing a young person die at such a young age is a tragedy and a shame. As far as the Bulldogs football team, head coach Mike Leach made practice Thursday optional, as the team gets ready for a giant game against the Crimson Tide of Alabama.

The Bulldogs are coming off a 27-17 setback at Kentucky, snapping a three-game win streak. The Bulldogs sit at 2-2 in the SEC, and a third loss will all but eliminate them from SEC Championship Game contention, if they're not already cooked.

The Crimson Tide are coming off a 52-49 loss at Tennessee in an epic battle at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville. Alabama's loss comes on the heels of a near-miss against Texas A&M, 24-20. The Tide have alternated OVER and UNDER results across the past six outings, too.

Score Prediction: Alabama 38, Mississippi State 17
Best Bet: Under 61.5 (-110)

MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS vs. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE BETTING ODDS

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MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS vs. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Saturday, Oct. 22, 2022
Matchup: SEC
Venue: Bryant-Denny Stadium
Location: Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Time-TV: ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET
Expert Picks

• Week 8 Odds Movements
• Week 8 Betting Trends
• Week 8 VI Title Rankings

MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS BETTING ANALYSIS

The Bulldogs have registered 333.0 passing yards per game this season, ranking 9th in the country. QB Will Rogers is a good man that I've never met, but I like. He has completed 70.9% of his pass attempts for 2,313 yards, 23 TD and 4 INT. The pocket passer has a solid two-headed monster RBs Dillon Johnson (69-418-3) and Jo'Quavious Marks (57-259-5) to hand off to, and Alabama native WR Rara Thomas (22-383-3) leading the way in the receiving game in yardage and 17.4 yards per reception. WR Caleb Ducking has managed seven scoring receptions, too.

Until last Saturday's setback in Lexington, the Bulldogs offense has been rolling with 39 or more points in three straight, and five of the first six outings.

The Bulldogs are 9-4-1 ATS in the past 14 games overall, while going 6-2 ATS in the past eight against teams with a winning overall record. For totals, Mississippi State has hit the UNDER in four straight on the road, while going 27-13 in the past 40 games in the SEC. The UNDER is 19-7 in the past 26 following a straight-up loss, too, while going 9-4 in the past 13 after a non-cover.

ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE BETTING ANALYSIS

Alabama heads back home after the 3-point setback in Tennessee, and really it couldn't have easily gone in its favor. There were some phantom calls by the referees to keep the Vols alive, but don't misconstrue that as saying Tennessee didn't deserve to win. If it were possible, it probably should have been a tie, as the defense was terrible on both ends.

The Crimson Tide are 17-6 ATS in the past 23 home games, and, perhaps more importantly, Alabama is 4-0 ATS in the past four games following a SU loss, and 14-4 ATS in the past 18 after a non-cover.

On totals, it's all UNDER for Alabama, going 5-1 in the past six at home. The UNDER is 6-2 in the past eight games against teams with a winning overall record, while going 6-0 in the past six following a SU loss, too.

In this series, Alabama leads the all-time series 84-18-3, with 14 consecutive wins in the series dating back to Nov. 10, 2007, a 17-12 win in Stark Vegas by the Bulldogs. Mississippi State last won in Tuscaloosa on Nov. 4, 2006, too.

Bama has dominated the series SU and ATS, covering four straight meetings overall, while going 6-1 ATS in the past seven in Tuscaloosa. The UNDER is 17-4-1 in the past 22 meetings in the series, while going 5-1-1 in the previous seven encounters in Tuscaloosa.

MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS vs. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE BETTING TRENDS

• Mississippi State is 9-4-1 ATS in the past 14 games overall
• Mississippi State is 6-2 ATS in the past eight vs. winning teams
• Alabama is 17-6 ATS in the past 23 home games
• Alabama is 4-0 ATS in the past four after a SU loss
• Alabama is 14-4 ATS in the past 18 after an ATS loss
• UNDER is 4-0 in the past four road games for Mississippi State
• UNDER is 27-13 in the past 40 SEC games for Mississippi State
• UNDER is 5-1 in the past six home games for Alabama
• UNDER is 6-2 in the past eight vs. winning teams for Alabama
• UNDER is 6-0 in the past six following a SU loss for Alabama
• Alabama is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings
• Alabama is 6-1 ATS in the past seven home games vs. Mississippi State
• UNDER is 17-4-1 in the past 22 meetings
• UNDER is 5-1-1 in the past seven meeting in Alabama

Daniel Dobish

Dan is a handicapper and sports betting expert for VegasInsider with years of experience writing for a number of top publications in the industry. More from Daniel Dobish