College Football Betting Trends – Week 10

Bruce Marshall Sports Betting Expert

14 minute read

NFL betting expert and handicapper Bruce Marshall breaks down the top trends for the entire Week 10 College Football slate. Check them out below and be sure sure to visit our CFB picks page for expert selections on games this week!

Friday, November 4

Duke vs. Boston College

• Teams have only met once since 2015, in the Covid 2020 season when Eagles won and covered early-season matchup 26-6, one of first games for Jeff Hafley as BC coach.
• Eagles however are now a staggering 1-8 vs. spread last nine since late 2021, 3-11 last 14 vs. number since early 2021.
• Mike Elko 5-3 SU and vs. line in Blue Devils debut.

Tech Play: Duke
Expert Picks

Massachusetts vs. Connecticut

• Minutemen got Huskies last year 27-13 but that was pre-Jim Mora, who is surprising 7-2 vs. line in 2022 for UConn after last week's 13-3 bruiser over BC.
• Huskies actually on nice 13-5 spread uptick last seventeen since early 2021.
• Mora also “under” 6-2-1 this season.
• Mass 2-8 vs. spread as visitor since 2021.

Tech Play: UConn
Expert Picks

Oregon State vs. Washington

• Beavers have covered last two and four of last six in series.
• Note OSU only 2-8 vs. spread away from Corvallis (or Portland) but had covered eight straight as visitor prior.
• Huskies also no covers last four in 2022 after quick break from gate, also now “over” 7-1 since late 2021.

Tech Play: Oregon State
Expert Picks

Saturday, November 5

Air Force vs. Army

• Note venue at Texas Rangers’ old home park which has been renamed and sits next to the new Rangers’ home field.
• “Unders” now eight straight in this series and 42-9-1 last 52 Commander-in-Chief games also involving Navy (including another “under” in Mids-Falcs on October 1).
• Army has now covered five straight in series though Jeff Monken just 2-5 vs. spread this season.

Tech Play: Army, Under
Expert Picks

Texas Tech vs. TCU

• Frogs have won last three in series, and covered last two handily.
• Red Raiders 6-4 vs. spread last nine since late last season, but it’s a new dawn in Fort Worth, and Sonny Dykes 8-0 SU, 6-1-1 vs. spread in 2022.
• Frogs also “over” 6-2 this season.

Tech Play: TCU, Over
Expert Picks

North Carolina vs. Virginia

• Since Mack Brown arrived at UNC, all three meetings easily “over” (also 4-0 “over” in series since 2018).
• UVA only 3-5 vs. spread for Tony Elliott this season, though we're not sure that four OT horror show vs. Miami last week deserved a spread W, and “under” 6-1-1 in 2022.

Tech Play: UNC
Expert Picks

Maryland vs. Wisconsin

• Teams haven’t faced off since 2017.
• Mike Locksley no covers last three this season, 3-16 vs. spread after midseason (following Game Five; after first three in shortened 2020).
• Terps have covered last three as dog, however.
• Badgers only 10-11 vs. line since last season, 2-1 SU and vs. line for Leonhard.
• Md also “over’ last three in 2022, Wiscy “over” last six this season.

Tech Play: Wisconsin, Over
Expert Picks

Iowa vs. Purdue

• Boilermakers have won and covered last two and four of last five meetings since Jeff Brohm arrived in 2017.
• “Unders” also 4-1 last five in those games, and Hawkeyes “under” 5-2 this season, though Purdue 10-3 “over” run since late 2021.

Tech Play: Purdue
Expert Picks

Tulane vs. Tulsa

• Golden Hurricane has gotten Wave the past two seasons, but Tulane on 9-1 spread uptick since late last season for Willie Fritz.
• Tulane also on 9-4 “under” run since late 2021.
• Tulsa on 7-5 spread run but most of that damage was done late last season, Golden Hurricane just 2-5 vs. line this term.

Tech Play: Tulane, Under
Expert Picks

Ohio State vs. Northwestern

• Cats haven’t won in series since 2004, with nine straight Buckeyes wins since.
• Last meeting at 2020 Big Ten title game which NU lost but covered.
• OSU rolling now, 4-1-1 vs. spread last six in 2022, now 9-4 vs. spread as Big Ten visitor since 2019 even after falling just short of the number last week at Penn State.
• Pat Fitz on 0-5 spread skid in Evanston, and just 5-15 vs. spread since last season after ugly loss at Iowa last week.

Tech Play: Ohio State
Expert Picks

Kentucky vs. Missouri

• The Tigers have played the Cats tough the past two seasons, beating them at Columbia in 2020 and coming within seven last season at Lexington.
• Mizzou has covered 8 of its last 12 overall and five of its last six as an SEC underdog.
• Mark Stoops 5-3 vs. line this season and also on 8-1 “under” run since late 2021.

Tech Play: Mizzou, Under
Expert Picks

Florida vs. Texas A&M

• Jimbo Fisher got Gators in a mild upset two years ago, but Ags no covers last four in 2022.
• A&M also on 12-8 “under” run since last season.
• UF has only played once as visitor thus far and covered at Tennessee.

Tech Play: Florida
Expert Picks

Minnesota vs. Nebraska

• Gophers have won and covered last three meetings.
• But PJ Fleck no covers last three this season after 4-0 SU and spread break from gate.
• Minn still 15-7 vs. spread since late in 2020 term.
• Huskers 2-2 SU and vs. spread since Mickey Joseph took over for Frost.

Tech Play: Minnesota
Expert Picks

Western Kentucky vs. Charlotte

• Tops have romped in this matchup the past three seasons.
• WKU 4-0 vs. spread away in 2022 season and 6-1 against points last seven as visitor, and 12-4 vs. spread since early 2021 even after last week's loss to physical North Texas.
• Note the 49ers enter on a 4-11 spread skid, but they're 1-0 SU and vs. the line since HC Will Healy was dismissed following the recent loss to FIU.

Tech Play: Western Kentucky
Expert Picks

Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Tech

• Hokies won and covered last two meetings (didn’t play in 2020).
• Jackets on 8-2 “under” run since late 2021, VPI “under” 6-1 this season.

Tech Play: Under
Expert Picks

Marshall vs. Old Dominion

• Monarchs covered this game a season ago (+21) in 20-13 SU loss, now 8-5 vs. line last twelve reg season since late 2021.
• Herd had dropped four straight vs. spread prior to recent JMU upset, Marshall also “under” 7-1 this season, 11-3 last 14 “under” since mid 2021.

Tech Play: ODU, Under
Expert Picks

South Florida vs. Temple

• Ugh! Bulls have covered this matchup the last two seasons, but only 1-7 SU and 3-5 vs. spread this season after squeezing inside the 17-point price at Houston last Saturday.
• Jeff Scott 1-3 his last four as chalk for USF.
• Note Owls have covered first four games at Linc for Stan Drayton this season.

Tech Play: Temple
Expert Picks

Middle Tennessee vs. Louisiana Tech

• Teams haven’t faced since 2016.
• Sonny Cumbie 3-0 vs. spread at Ruston this season even after Rice loss, and now 7-1 “over” in 2022 after Friday result vs. FIU.
• Stockstill no covers last three this season and “over” 4-3 in 2022.

Tech Play: Over
Expert Picks

Georgia State vs. Southern Mississippi

• Panthers got the win vs. Old Dominion last week but still just 3-4 vs. spread this season.
• Golden Eagles are now 9-2 last 11 on board after last Thursday's win over the Ragin’ Cajuns.

Tech Play: Southern Miss
Expert Picks

Baylor vs. Oklahoma

• Bears have covered last four meetings.
• Last four in series “under” as well.
• Sooners had dropped four in a row vs. the points this season until last week's win at Iowa State.
• Both however trending “over” in 2022 (Bears 6-2 “over” and OU 3-2 “over” last four).

Tech Play: Baylor, Over
Expert Picks

New Mexico vs. Utah State

• Utags dominating lately, won and covered last five meetings.
• Though USU only 2-6 vs. spread this season, and “under” 7-2 since late 2021.
• After 3-1-1 start vs. spread this term, Lobos no covers last three.
• UNM “under” 13-7 since 2021.

Tech Play: Utah State, Under
Expert Picks

UTSA @ UAB

• Dog sides have covered in this game the past two seasons.
• Roadrunners not quite as dynamic vs. spread this season and now on 3-6 skid vs. line since late 2021.
• Blazers 3-1 vs. spread at home this season (but only 3-4 overall), also “under” 5-2 in 2021.

Tech Play: Under
Expert Picks

West Virginia vs. Iowa State

• Cyclones had won and covered three straight in series prior to upset loss at Morgantown LY.
• One of ten ISU defeats by ten points or fewer since 2021.
• Cyclones on 7-2 “under” run since late 2021.
• Mounties no covers last five or six of last seven on Big 12 trail

Tech Play: Iowa State, Under
Expert Picks

Oregon vs. Colorado

• Buffs actually squeezed inside of big spread last year at Eugene.
• Ducks on fire with wins in seven straight (6-1 vs. points in those) but on road just 2-5 vs. spread last seven away from Autzen Stadium.
• CU 2-6 vs. line this season (but 2-1 with Mike Sanford, Jr. since the dismissal of Karl Dorrell, both covers coming in Boulder).

Tech Play: Oregon
Expert Picks

Tennessee vs. Georgia

• Bulldogs have rolled last five in this series and covered last six meetings.
• Though Josh Heupel 7-1 vs. line this season (1-0 as dog), also now on 15-5 “over” run.
• Last three meetings ”over” as well, though Kirby Smart on 8-1 “under” run since late 2021.

Tech Play: Tennessee, Over
Expert Picks

Washington State vs. Stanford

• Cougs have won last five and covered last six in series.
• WSU has covered 5 of last 7 this season after Utes on Thursday, also on 8-1 “under” run since late 2021.
• Tree on 1-7 spread run last eight at Palo Alto, 2-13 last 15 vs. number after thumping loss at UCLA last Saturday.

Tech Play: Washington State, Under
Expert Picks

UCF vs. Memphis

• Teams have split the past two seasons, home side winning each, though Golden Knights beat Tigers four times in 2017-18, 3-0-1 vs. line in those (AAC title games included).
• Memphis on 5-12 spread skid since 2021, also “over” 8-1 since late 2021, Gus Malzahn surprisingly “under” 8-2 last ten since late 2021 after last week's win over Cincy.

Tech Play: UCF
Expert Picks

Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh

• Panthers have won four in a row outright in series, covered three of those.
• Meanwhile Dino Babers 6-2 SU (though losses last two) and vs. line this season and 5-2 vs. spread last seven away from Dome.
• Pitt also just 2-6 vs. spread last eight as host.
• ‘Cuse also on 8-3 “under” run.

Tech Play: Syracuse
Expert Picks

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas

• Cowboys have won last 12 SU in series, covered last four by big margins and 4-0-2 vs. points last six vs. Jayhawks.
• Mike Gundy had also covered ten straight reg season away from Stillwater and was 15-5 vs. spread last 20 overall before getting crushed at K-State last week.
• Note Lance Leipold, however 6-1-1 vs. spread this season and 9-1-1 since late 2021 for Jayhawks.
• KU also “over” 6-3 last nine since late 2021, Gundy also on 7-2 “over” run.

Tech Play: Oklahoma State, Over
Expert Picks

Penn State vs. Indiana

• Hoosiers have covered three of four meetings and even won outright in 2020 Covid season opener, but IU on 5-16 spread skid since late 2020 campaign.
• Tom Allen, however, is 3-0 vs. spread as Big Ten host this season.
• James Franklin 6-3 vs. spread last six on big Ten road.

Tech Play: Penn State
Expert Picks

Michigan State vs. Illinois

• Teams haven’t met since 2019 when Lovie Smith’s Illini pulled 37-34 upset.
• Spartans 1-5 SU and 2-4 vs. line last six this season after squeezing inside of big spread vs. Michigan.
• Meanwhile, Bret Bielema 6-1 SU and 5-2 vs. line in 2022, now 8-2 last nine vs. spread since late 2021.
• Bielema “under” 13-5-1 with Illinois since last season.

Tech Play: Illinois, Under
Expert Picks

South Alabama vs. Georgia Southern

• Home team has covered last four meetings.
• Jags 2-1 vs. points as visitor this season after 0-6 spread mark away a year ago.
• Clay Helton 6-2 vs. line in GSU debut and has covered all three in Statesboro.

Tech Play: Georgia Southern
Expert Picks

Florida International vs. North Texas

• Break up the Golden Panthers, now at .500 on season (4-4) and having covered three in a row after La Tech win last Friday!
• Mean Green however on 12-4 spread surge since mid 2021, and UNT crushed FIU last season.

Tech Play: North Texas
Expert Picks

Navy vs. Cincinnati

• Mids covered this game last season but previous meeting was back in 2018.
• Navy 3-0 vs. spread away from Annapolis this campaign, 17-6 last 23 since 2019.
• Bearcats just 5-10 vs. line since mid 2021 after last week's loss at UCF.

Tech Play: Navy
Expert Picks

Liberty vs. Arkansas

• Hugh Freeze back in SEC Country.
• Flames 8-1 SU last nine since late 2021, 3-0 as dog this season, 5-1 as dog since 2021, 9-1 as dog since 2020.
• Porkers “over” 7-1 this season.

Tech Play: Liberty, Over
Expert Picks

Texas State vs. UL Monroe

• Bobcats have won and covered the past two seasons.
• Though TSU just 1-3 vs. spread away this term.
• Bobcats also on 10-4 “under” run.
• Terry Bowden, however, has covered last three as host and five of last six at home for Warhawks.

Tech Play: UL Monroe, Under
Expert Picks

Troy vs. UL Lafayette

• Ragin’ Cajuns have won and covered last two meetings (both vs. Chip Lindsey’s Trojans), didn’t square off in 2020.
• Troy a pretty good story this season in Jon Sumrall debut, 6-2 vs. spread, also “under” last three.
• ULL just had three-game cover streak snapped by USM last Thursday.

Tech Play: Troy
Expert Picks

UNLV vs. San Diego State

• Rebs have covered 3 of last 4 meetings.
• But UNLV no covers last three MW games this season.
• Aztecs “under” 5-2 last seven in 2022.

Tech Play: Under
Expert Picks

BYU vs. Boise State

• Road team has won and covered last two seasons.
• After ECU loss on Friday, Cougs now on 7-game spread skid, also 4-12 vs. spread since early 2021.
• Boise working on four straight wins and covers in 2022.

Tech Play: Boise State
Expert Picks

Texas vs. Kansas State

• Cats haven’t won outright in this series since Bill Snyder in 2016.
• If getting points note Chris Klieman 14-6 as dog since arriving at K-State.
• Horns no covers last five as Big 12 visitor (OU game in Dallas neutral). Steve Sarkisian 10-4 “under” since mid 2021.

Tech Play: Kansas State, Under
Expert Picks

Houston @ SMU

• Wild Cougs win last season gave Ponies their first loss of 2021.
• Teams didn’t meet in Covid 2020 due to cancellation.
• UH has now covered last three away and 6-1 ”over” this season.
• SMU recent 5-game spread L streak now followed by back-to-back covers vs. Cincy and Tulsa.
• Mustangs “under” 5-3 this season in Rhett Lashlee debut.
• Tech edge-slight to Houston, based pon recent trends.

Tech Play: Houston
Expert Picks

Alabama vs. LSU

• Bama has won last five and covered last four at Baton Rouge.
• But Tide only 4-6 vs. spread last 10 away from Tuscaloosa.
• Tigers have covered 2 of last 3 meetings as road team covered each of those.
• Brian Kelly 14-6 vs. spread since last season.
• Both “under” 5-3 this season.

Tech Play: LSU, Under
Expert Picks

Clemson vs. Notre Dame

• Teams split two years ago, including ACC title game in Covid 2020 when the Domers played an ACC schedule.
• Irish no covers first four in South Bend while covering first four away this season.
• Dabo Swinney on nation’s-best 14-game SU win streak, though only 4-4 vs. line this season

Tech Play: Clemson
Expert Picks

Auburn vs. Mississippi State

• Road team has won and covered last two years in series, including big rally by Bulldogs at Jordan-Hare a year ago.
• Mike Leach 5-1-1 vs. spread last seven at Starkville, however.
• Bryan Harsin now out at Auburn after compiling just a 3-10 spread mark since mid 2021.

Tech Play: Miss State
Expert Picks

Florida State vs. Miami Florida

• Tough loss last year for Canes at Doak Campbell, Miami had won previous four meetings (3-1 vs. line in those).
• Noles, however, have now covered five in a row on the road, while Miami no covers last seven this season after last week's root canal against Virginia.

Tech Play: Florida State
Expert Picks

South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt

• Will Muschamp really owned Dores, won and covered all five chances against them while with Gamecocks, but Shane Beamer couldn’t cover last year’s game (21-20 SC win).
• Vandy only 2-5 last seven vs. spread this season.

Tech Play: South Carolina
Expert Picks

Arizona @ Utah

• Utes haven’t lost to Cats since 2015 but didn’t cover as heavy chalk a year ago at Tucson.
• Utah now no covers last three this season after last Thursday vs. Wazzu, though it is 6-2 vs. spread last eight at Rice-Eccles.
  Arizona 5-3 vs. spread this season as it has upgraded for 2nd-year HC for Jedd Fisch, also “over” 8-2 dating to late 2021.

Tech Play: Utah, Over
Expert Picks

Michigan vs. Rutgers

• Jim Harbaugh has failed to cover last two years vs. Greg Schiano after dominating Scarlet Knights prior, with wins like 52-0 & 78-0 and five preceding wins all by 21 or more (though Mich only covered 3 of those 5).
• Harbaugh 5-2 vs. spread on Big Ten road since last season, also on 15-8 spread uptick since start of 2021.
• Schiano has covered last two as Big Ten host after dropping previous seven at home vs. Big Ten at Piscataway.

Tech Play: Michigan
Expert Picks

Wake Forest vs. N.C. State

• Home team has covered last three and five of last six in series.
• Both games ended 45-42 past two seasons!
• Even after embarrassment at the 'Ville last week, Deacs on 7-2 spread uptick since late 2021 and have covered four of last five away from Winston-Salem.
• Pack no covers last five this season after last Thursday vs. VPI.

Tech Play: Wake Forest
Expert Picks

UCLA vs. Arizona State

• Bruins had covered four straight in series prior to last year’s loss at the Rose Bowl.
• UCLA 7-2 vs. spread last nine as visitor even after recent Oregon loss.
• Chip Kelly also on 10-3“over” run.
• Interim Shaun Aguano has won twice and covered three of last four in 2022 for Sun Devils.

Tech Play: UCLA, Over
Expert Picks

Colorado State vs. San Jose State

• Rams did mash Spartans 32-14 LY but that was one of the last highlights of the Steve Addazio regime.
• Jay Norvell has won and covered two of last four this season, nothing great but after 0-5 start and a 10-game spread losing streak, it's an upgrade.
• CSU also “under" 7-1 to start 2022.
• Spartans have now dropped last two vs. line this season after spread covers in four previous games.

Tech Play: Under
Expert Picks

California vs. USC

• Bears beat Trojans last season for just the second time since 2003.
• Cal is 24-10 as dog since 2017 under Justin Wilcox, even after falling just short vs. the number against Oregon last week.
• The Golden Bears, however, are just 2-4 vs. points last six as visitor.
• Lincoln Riley 5-3 vs. line, 3-1 vs. spread at Coliseum in Trojans debut season, though SC has dropped 3 of its last 5 vs. the spread in 2022 after a quick start.

Tech Play: Cal
Expert Picks

Hawaii vs. Fresno State

• Rainbow Warriors have won in upsets the past two seasons.
• UH 4-1 vs. spread last five on mainland (3-1 for Timmy Chang).
• Bows also “under” 7-1 last eight this season after last Saturday at home vs. Wyo.
• FSU was 3-13-1 for Jeff Tedford from 2019-early 2022 before a pair of recent covers (Bulldogs now 5-14-1 vs. line for Tedford since 2019).
• Tech edge-“Under” and slight to Hawaii, based on team and “totals” trends.

Tech Play: Hawaii, Under
Expert Picks

Bruce Marshall

Bruce's unique and colorful brand of football and basketball analysis, as well as informed commentary on the national and international sports scene, has made him an in-demand guest for many years on numerous sports talk radio and TV shows across the country. Bruce's vast array of editorial work has also been featured in VegasInsider, along with the Las Vegas Review-Journal and New York Post. Bruce, who is also in the midst of several book projects, combines all of his work while splitting time between Celebration, Florida and Henderson, Nevada. More from Bruce Marshall