College Football Betting Trends – Week 11

Bruce Marshall Sports Betting Expert

15 minute read

Betting expert and handicapper Bruce Marshall breaks down the top trends for the entire Week 11 College Football slate. Check them out below and be sure to visit our NCAAFB picks page for expert selections on games this week!

Saturday, November 12

Virginia Tech at Duke

• Teams have split last eight spread decisions.
• Hokies have covered two of last three this season but still just 3-6 vs. line for Brent Pry, 9-18 vs. points since mid 2020.
• Also on 16-8 “under” run since late 2020. Bowl-eligible Blue Devils 3-0 vs. spread at Durham this season for Mike Elko.

Tech Play: Duke, Under
Expert Picks

Liberty at Connecticut

• Hugh Freeze only 1-4 as chalk this season, 3-8 last 11 in role.
• After UMass win, Jim Mora has covered six straight this season, Huskies on 14-5 spread uptick since early 2021.
• Conn also “under five in a row in 2022.

Tech Play: UConn, Under
Expert Picks

LSU at Arkansas

• Dog team is 3-0-1 vs. line last four meetings.
• Brian Kelly's LSU 5-2 vs. spread last seven this season after Bama upset.
• Razorbacks “over” 7-1 in 2022.

Tech Play: LSU, Over
Expert Picks

SMU vs. South Florida

• Mustangs have won and covered big last two meetings.
• Though Ponies only 4-10 vs. spread since mid 2021 (4-5 for Rhett Lashlee TY).
• Bulls 0-4 vs. spread in Tampa this season, also “over” 7-2 in 2022, but that was all with HC Jeff Scott, who walked the plank on Sunday.

Tech Play: SMU, Over
Expert Picks

Rutgers at Michigan State

• Road team has won last three and covered last five meetings.
• Greg Schiano only 1-4-1 vs. line last six away from home after previous 8-1 mark on road vs. line.
• Schiano also 10-1 “under” away from home since 2020.
• Mel Tucker 2-4-1 last six vs. spread in 2022 but off of a rousing upset of Illinois.

Tech Play: Rutgers, Under
Expert Picks

Vanderbilt at Kentucky

• Dores haven’t won in series since 2018 but have covered 3 of last 4 meetings.
• Vandy 2-6 vs. spread last seven this season though Clark Lea has covered 4 of his last 6 away in SEC play.
• Cats on 9-1 “under” run since late 2021.

Tech Play: Vanderbilt, Under
Expert Picks

Purdue at Illinois

• Illini have covered last five clashes, split between Lovie Smith and Bret Bielema, against the Riveters.
• Even after last week's upset loss to Michigan State, Illinois on 11-5-1 spread run since early last season, Boilermakers only 2-3 as dog in 2022.
• ”Unders” in last five meetings, and Illini “under” 14-5 for Bielema, though Purdue on 8-3 “over” run since late last season.
• Tech edge-Illinois and slight to "under," based on series and "totals" trends.

Tech Play: Illinois, Under
Expert Picks

Missouri at Tennessee

• Vols rolled in this one 62-24 last season at Columbia and have won and covered last three in series.
• UT 7-2 vs. spread in 2022 for Heupel, also on 15-6 “over” run since early 2021.
• Tigers have covered 4 of last 6 this season and ”under” 8-1 in 2022.

Tech Play: Tennessee
Expert Picks

Pittsburgh at Virginia

• Bronco Mendenhall covered his last two for ‘Hoos vs. Panthers, but Cavs only 4-5 vs. line for Tony Elliott this season. (UVa does have covers in three straight, however.)
• Note that Pitt's Pat Narduzzi was undefeated vs. spread in ten straight as visitor prior to recent losses at 'Ville and UNC.
• Cavs also on 16-5 “under” run since late 2020.

Tech Play: Pitt, Under
Expert Picks

Indiana at Ohio State

• Hoosiers haven’t beaten Buckeyes since Bill Mallory and 1988 (41-7) over John Cooper, OSU has won last 26 meetings since.
• Road team, however, has covered last six meetings.
• Hoosiers, have failed to cover last five away from Bloomington and 1-9 vs. spread last ten away from Memorial Stadium.
• “Overs” last five in series.

Tech Play: Ohio State, Over
Expert Picks

Oklahoma at West Virginia

• Sooners 9-0 SU vs. Mounties since WVU entered Big 12 in 2012, also 5-1-1 vs. line last seven meetings.
• OU only 3-6 vs. line for Brent Venables, though Mounties only 3-4 vs. spread last seven as Big 12 host.

Tech Play: Oklahoma
Expert Picks

Notre Dame at Navy

• Irish have won last four meetings, last loss 2016, remember at one points Navy didn’t have any wins in series between 1964-2006.
• Domers 4-0 vs. line away from South Bend this season, 1-4 vs. spread at home!
• Mids have covered 5 of last 8 meetings.
• After hanging around last week at Cincy, Navy has covered 7 of last 8 away from Annapolis, also “over” 4-1 last five in 2022.

Tech Play: Navy, Over
Expert Picks

UL Monroe at Georgia State

• Panthers have won four of last five SU in series, “overs” 4-1-1 last six meetings.
• Warhawks just 1-4 vs. spread on road this season.

Tech Play: Georgia State, Over
Expert Picks

James Madison at Old Dominion

• Dukes have dropped last three after blazing 5-0 SU and spread break from gate, bottoming out in last week's heavy loss at the 'Ville.
• JMU also “over” 5-3 this season.
• Monarchs however haven’t covered in Norfolk since opener vs. VPI (0-4 since), though they are 6-4 last ten as reg season dog since late 2021.

Tech Play: Over
Expert Picks

Rice at Western Kentucky

• Owls 7-3 vs. line since late 2021, also “over” 12-1 since late 2021 after UTEP result.
• Tops 17-7 vs. spread since last season but only 1-2 vs. points last three at home.
• “Over” in LY’s meeting.

Tech Play: Over
Expert Picks

Massachusetts at Arkansas State

• Ugh! Minutemen now “under” 7-2 for Don Brown after UConn result, 9-3 “under” since late last season.
• Red Wolves have covered last four non-Belt games.

Tech Play: Arkansas State, Under
Expert Picks

Temple at Houston

• Cougs rolled at Philly 37-8 last season but everyone was beating Owls late in 2021.
• Stan Drayton has covered six of last eight this season though only 1-3 vs. line away in 2022.
• UH “over” 8-1 this season, 10-2 “over” since late 2021 (that was enough scoring for two "overs" last week vs. SMU!).

Tech Play: Over
Expert Picks

North Texas at UAB

• Blazers have won last three and covered last four meetings since program resurrected.
• But UNT rolling now vs. spread with six covers in a row, and eleven straight vs. C-USA opposition after last week's rout of FIU.
• Blazers also no covers last four this season for Bryant Vincent.

Tech Play: North Texas
Expert Picks

Army at Troy

• Black Knights no covers four of last five away from West Point, Army also “under” 8-1 last eight away from Michie Stadium after another grinder vs. Air Force last week.
• Troy 7-2 vs. line in Sumrall debut, 6-3 “under” this season.

Tech Play: Under
Expert Picks

New Mexico at Air Force

• Bob Davie gave the Falcs fits when he was with Lobos, covering 7 of 8 vs. Falcs, but Force rolled in one try vs. Danny Gonzales 38-10 LY.
• No letdown per se for Force after recent Commander-in-Chief games (3-2 vs. line last five).
• UNM no covers last four in 2022, “under” 14-7 since 2021. UNM just 3-7 vs. spread away past two seasons.

Tech Play: Air Force, Under
Expert Picks

Charlotte at Middle Tennessee State

• 49ers have covered last three meetings.
• Charlotte 1-1 SU and vs. line for Pete Rossomando after dismissal of Will Healy.
• Charlotte on 10-34 “over” run since late 2021.
• Blue Raiders “over” 5-2 last six in 2022.

Tech Play: Charlotte, Over
Expert Picks

Nebraska at Michigan

• Jim Harbaugh barely escaped with close 32-29 win at Lincoln last year.
• Huskers have been alternating spread Ls and Ws for Mickey Joseph (3-3 vs. line), though Nebraska just 6-9 vs. spread last 15 on board since mid 2021.
• Harbaugh 9-3-1 vs. line at Ann Arbor since last season.

Tech Play: Michigan
Expert Picks

Alabama at Ole Miss

• Nick Saban has beaten Rebs six straight (5-1 vs. line) since losing back-to-back to Ole Miss and Hugh Freeze in 2014-15.
• Saban 2-6 vs. spread as visitor since last season, however, after LSU loss.
• Tide 10-6 “under” since late 2021.
• Lane Kiffin 1-4 vs. spread at Oxford this season.
• Rebs also “over' four straight after “under” 15-3 previous 18.

Tech Play: Alabama, Under
Expert Picks

Arizona State at Washington State

• Road team has covered last three meetings.
• Sun Devils 3-1 vs. spread last four for Aguano, and ASU 6-3 “under” since late 2021.
• Cougs however 9-4 vs. spread in reg season games for Jake Dickert.

Tech Play: Under
Expert Picks

Appalachian State at Marshall

• Mounties only 2-5 vs. spread last seven this season after loss to Coastal, 3-9 last 12 vs. spread since late 2021.
• Herd, however, only 2-5 vs. line last six since Notre Dame upset (even after ODU win last week), also “under” 8-1 in 2022 and 143-4 since early 2021.

Tech Play: Under
Expert Picks

Boston College at NC State

• Eagles had covered four straight in series until Pack’s 31-7 win LY at Chestnut Hill.
• NCS had dropped six straight this season vs. line prior to last week's Wake win, but BC only 2-7 vs. spread even after Duke cover on Friday.

Tech Play: Boston College
Expert Picks

Miami (FL) at Georgia Tech

• Ugh! Yellow Jackets have actually covered last four meetings (didn’t face in 2020).
• Canes have dropped eight straight vs. line this season, Tech 8-2 “under” since late 2021.

Tech Play: GA Tech, Under
Expert Picks

Northwestern at Minnesota

• After losing by double digits first two vs. Pat Fitz and NU, PJ Fleck has beaten the Cats twice in a row (1-0-1 vs. line), also by DD margins.
• NU hasn’t won outright since Nebraska opener and has covered only 3 of 8, since, now on 7-14 spread skid since last season.
• Gophers 7-2 vs. spread last nine at TCF Bank Stadium.

Tech Play: Minnesota
Expert Picks

Wisconsin at Iowa

• Badgers have covered five of last six meetings.
• Though Wiscy only 1-4 vs. spread last five away from Madison.
• Hawkeyes only 3-5 vs. points last eight at Iowa City, but are stirring a bit with wins and covers (impressively so) last two this season vs. NU and Purdue.

Tech Play: Wisconsin
Expert Picks

Iowa State at Oklahoma State

• Teams split identical 24-21 scores past two seasons.
• Cyclones had lost five straight in 2022, 1-3-1 vs. line in those, before last week's 31-14 whip of West Virginia.
• ISU also 8-2 “under” since late 2021 after that latest result vs. the Mountaineers.
• Note Gundy 7-3-1 vs. line last 11 at Stillwater, 15-7 vs. spread overall since last season, though OSU off of two thumping losses on the road.
• Cowboys “over” 7-3 since late 2021.

Tech Play: Oklahoma State
Expert Picks

Louisville at Clemson

• Tigers have won all seven meetings SU since Cards joined ACC.
• Dabo has also covered last five in series.
• Cards however have covered last four this season and five of last six in 2022.
• Dabo just 1-3 vs. spread in Death Valley this campaign.

Tech Play: Louisville
Expert Picks

Maryland at Penn State

• James Franklin has won and covered five of last six vs. Terps.
• Md no covers last four this season as maybe replicating past Locksley fades after midseason, 2-18 vs. spread in reg season past fifth game (past third game in truncated 2020).
• Nittany Lions 4-1 vs. spread last five in Happy Valley.

Tech Play: Penn State
Expert Picks

Central Florida at Tulane

• Green Wave has gotten the money each of the past three seasons vs. Golden Knights, including a year ago when Tulane had a difficult slog.
• No slog yet in 2022, however, with Willie Fritz 8-1 SU and vs line, and now 12-2 vs. spread since late 2021 after last week's win at Tulsa.
• Note Gus Malzahn 3-5 vs. number last eight as visitor but did get win at Memphis last week.
• Wave also on 10-4 “under” run.

Tech Play: Tulane, Over
Expert Picks

South Carolina at Florida

• Spurrier game!
• Gamecocks have covered four of last five in series. Gators 1-4 vs. spread last five in Swamp this season.

Tech Play: South Carolina
Expert Picks

Texas State at South Alabama

• Home team has covered last two in series, Bobcats scored nice upset in San Marcos a season ago.
• TSU only 3-6 vs. spread last nine away, Jags 6-2 vs. spread last eight in Mobile.
• Bobcats on 10-4 “under” run.

Tech Play: South Alabama, Under
Expert Picks

Florida Atlantic at Florida International

• Shula Bowl!
• Wins and covers last five meetings for Owls, some of those blowouts.
• FAU however only 1-5 vs. spread last six as visitor.
• Golden Panthers remarkably have covered last three and four of last five this season.
• FAU "under" 7-2 in 2021 and 22-8 "under" since Willie Taggart arrived in 2020.

Tech Play: FAU, Under
Expert Picks

Georgia at Mississippi State

• After covering 9 of previous 10 away from home, UGa has dropped last two spread decisions on road.
• Kirby Smart also on 9-2 “under” run since late LY after Tennessee win.
• Mike Leach 5-2-1 vs. spread last seven at Starkville.

Tech Play: Under
Expert Picks

Kansas State at Baylor

• Road-oriented series with visitor covering last six meetings.
• Cats on 7-4-1 spread uptick since late 2021, Bears “over” 7-2 this season after closing last year “over” in last three.

Tech Play: Kansas State, Over
Expert Picks

Washington at Oregon

• Ducks have won and covered last two meetings (2019 & ‘21).
• Huskies now no covers last five in 2022 after falling short vs. Beavers on Friday, but Kalen DeBoer's team has yet to be made an underdog in 2022. U-Dub also “over” 7-2 since late ‘2021.
• UO has now won and covered last six at Autzen Stadium, also 7-3 “over” since late 2021.

Tech Play: Oregon, Over
Expert Picks

Kansas at Texas Tech

• Jayhawks have covered 2 of last 3 in series despite bad teams before Lance Leipold arrival in 2021.
• KU also now 10-1-1 vs. line since last November after last week's Oklahoma State win.
• Red Raiders “over” 6-3 this season for Joey McGuire.

Tech Play: Kansas, Over
Expert Picks

Southern Mississippi at Coastal Carolina

• Golden Eagles off surprise thumping administered by Georgia State, but still 9-3 vs. spread since last November, and 6-1 last seven as dog.
• Chants 5-10 last 15 vs. line even after App State win.

Tech Play: Southern Miss
Expert Picks

TCU at Texas

• Frogs have won and covered six of last eight meetings.
• TCU 3-0-1 vs. line away this season, 7-1-1 vs. spread overall, also “over” 6-2 in 2022.
• Sarkisian 4-1 vs. spread at Austin in 2022, Horns 10-5 “under” since mid 2021.

Tech Play: TCU
Expert Picks

Texas A&M at Auburn

• Jimbo has won and covered last two vs. Auburn, though Ags just 2-6 vs. spread as visitor since last season.
• “Under” 5-3 last eight on road for A&M.
• Tigers on 4-10 spread skid that began with A&M loss last season.

Tech Play: Texas A&M
Expert Picks

North Carolina at Wake Forest

• Wild series has seen high-scoring shootouts won by Heels past two seasons.
• Deacs however on 6-1 spread run last seven at Winston-Salem, UNC only 3-7-1 vs. spread away from Chapel Hill since 2021.
• Heels “over” 10-6 since mid 2021.

Tech Play: Wake Forest, Over
Expert Picks

Florida State at Syracuse

• Orange last beat Noles in 2018, though have covered 3 of last 4 meetings.
• Dino Babers 14-7 vs. spread since last season, 9-3 vs. spread last 12 at Dome, but has dropped last three SU in 2022 (1-2 vs. line, and the Noles have covered last six away from Tallahassee after last Saturday's 45-3 romp at Miami.

Tech Play: Florida State
Expert Picks

California at Oregon State

• Home team has won and covered last two meetings.
• Cal now 25-10 as dog for Wilcox since he arrived in 2017.
• But OSU has 11 straight covers as a host (Corvallis or Portland).

Tech Play: Oregon State
Expert Picks

Stanford at Utah

• Utes destroyed Tree 52-7 LY. Utah 8-2 vs. spread last ten at Salt Lake City after last week's romp past Arizona.
• Meanwhile David Shaw on 2-14 spread skid since mid 2021 after last week's thumping administered by Washington State.
• Utah also on 12-6 “over” run since early 2021.

Tech Play: Utah
Expert Picks

Boise State at Nevada

• Pack won on blue carpet last season and has covered last two meetings.
• But Nevada has lost seven straight in 2022, covering just one of those.
• Broncos had won and covered four straight in 2022 before running into BYU last week.

Tech Play: Boise State
Expert Picks

Arizona at UCLA

• Chip Kelly has won last two and covered last three vs. Cats.
• Jedd Fisch on 9-6 spread uptick for UA since mid 2021.
• Cats also “over” 9-3 since late 2021.
• Bruins 6-1 vs. spread last seven vs. FBS foes at Rose Bowl, also 11-3 “over” run.

Tech Play: UCLA, Over
Expert Picks

San Jose State at San Diego State

• Spartans have covered last two meetings.
• San Jose 4-1 vs. spread last five on road, also on 8-2 “under” run.
• Aztecs have covered two of their their last three this season but only 1-4 vs. number at Snapdragon.
• Note last four and seven of last eight in series "under" as well.

Tech Play: San Jose State, Under
Expert Picks

Utah State at Hawaii

• Last year was first meeting since 2018.
• Utags have covered last six meetings back to 2011 and days in WAC.
• USU only 3-6 vs. line this season and now “under” 8-2 since late 2021.
• Bows had covered four straight this season before last week's blowout loss at Fresno, also “under” 7-3 in 2022.

Tech Play: Under
Expert Picks

Wednesday, November 9

Buffalo at Central Michigan

• Teams haven’t met since 2019.
• Bulls saw 5-game SU and 6-game vs, spread unbeaten streaks both end last Tuesday vs. Ohio.
• McElwain snapped 4-game skid in win vs. NIU.
• Chips closed fast last year, covering last five Chips also 6-1 last seven as dog.

Tech Play: Central Michigan
Expert Picks

Northern Illinois at Western Michigan

• Underdog team has covered last three meetings (NIU 2-1 vs. line in those).
• Huskies 2-7 SU, 3-6 vs. line, “over” first six this season before “under” last two.
• WMU “under” 5-1 last six this season after BGSU result last Wednesday.

Tech Play: Under
Expert Picks

Kent State at Bowling Green

• Golden Flashes have won last four meetings, covering three of those, hitting 60+ in two of those wins.
• Kent however no covers last five after loss to Ball State, and “under” 5-1 last six in 2022.
• Falcs now three SU wins in a row but 0-3 as chalk this season, 0-4 last four laying points (last chalk cover came in 2019).
• BGSU “under” 3-1 last four after “over” first five this season.

Tech Play: Under
Expert Picks

Thursday, November 10

Tulsa at Memphis

• Golden Hurricane has covered last two meetings (didn’t meet in 2020).
• Tulsa 10-2-1 as dog since 2020, though the pair of Ls came in last two games vs. SMU and Tulane.
• Tigers 1-6 vs. line last six at Liberty Bowl after another close loss last week (vs. UCF).
• “Overs” also 6-1 last seven meetings, and Memphis “over” 9-1 last ten sine late 2021.

Tech Play: Over
Expert Picks

Georgia Southern at Louisiana

• Ragin’ Cajuns have won last three meetings outright but haven’t covered last two.
• Clay Helton 6-3 vs. spread in first season with Eagles, and ULL no covers last three as chalk.

Tech Play: Georgia Southern
Expert Picks

Friday, November 11

East Carolina at Cincinnati

• Bearcats have won last four meetings, covering three of those.
• Pirates, however, have covered 8 of last 10 as dog.
• Cincy just 5-11 last 16 on board since mid 2021 after falling short last week vs. Navy.

Tech Play: East Carolina
Expert Picks

Colorado at USC

• Buffs haven’t beaten Trojans since entering Pac, 0-10 SU, but have covered four of last eight meetings.
• In fact, CU has never beaten SC... like ever (0-15 SU!).
• Buffs only 2-6 vs. spread this season but have covered 2 of 3 for Mike Sanford, and CU “over” 9-4 last 13 since mid 2021.
• Trojans only 2-4 vs. line last six this season after the defense bent too much again in the late going last week vs. Cal, resulting in another spread L.
• Trojans also on 12-6 “over” run since early 2021.

Tech Play: USC
Expert Picks

Fresno State at UNLV

• Bulldogs have won last four meetings, covering three of those, but Rebels did slip inside of spread last September at Dog House.
• Bulldogs have covered 3 of last 4 this season (and won each outright) after 3-13-1 spread mark previous 17 for Jeff Tedford.
• Rebs no covers three of last five in 2022. “Overs” last three meetings.

Tech Play: Fresno State
Expert Picks

Bruce Marshall

Bruce's unique and colorful brand of football and basketball analysis, as well as informed commentary on the national and international sports scene, has made him an in-demand guest for many years on numerous sports talk radio and TV shows across the country. Bruce's vast array of editorial work has also been featured in VegasInsider, along with the Las Vegas Review-Journal and New York Post. Bruce, who is also in the midst of several book projects, combines all of his work while splitting time between Celebration, Florida and Henderson, Nevada. More from Bruce Marshall