Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds, Betting Trends: What You Need To Know

Patrick Everson Sports Betting Expert

3 minute read

Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest odds are on the board, and there's a glaring absence. Joey Chestnut, the 16-time champion, will not compete Thursday at Coney Island, due to a sponsorship conflict.

However, Chestnut's absence should make this annual gluttony fest much more competitive. Last year, Chestnut was a massive -5000 favorite and won easily. But as this year's odds to win the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest show, a closer race is expected.

Here's everything you need to know about 2024 Nathan's Hot Dog Contest Odds: action, movement and betting trends. Check back for updates on this July 4 event. And if you’re looking to bet on it, use our Caesars Sports bonus code to get more when you wager.

Nathan's Hot Dog Contest Odds

Top Dogs

With Joey Chestnut and his massive favorite price out of the mix, Geoffrey Esper is the modest favorite to down the most dogs this year. Esper took second to Chestnut each of the last three years in the men's division.

A day out from this year's July 4 festivities, Caesars Sports has Esper the even-money favorite in Nathan's Hot Dog Contest Odds. That represents a shortening from Monday's opening price of Esper -115. James Webb is the +115 second choice, after opening +200.

Both contestant's prices are far more attractive than bettors are used to seeing, priming the pump for more action.

"We're definitely trumping last year's action, as far as outrights go," Caesars Sports trader Anthony Salleroli said Wednesday, ahead of the noon ET Thursday men's contest. "Not having Chestnut probably dampens the crowd enthusiasm, because they just want to see him down dogs. But when you look at it from a gambling perspective, customers are more inclined to bet on it.

"Joey Chestnut being out just opens up the field."

Early action prompted Caesars to shorten Webb's price, and he's closing in on the favorite Esper. Webb took third last year.

"We've taken some action on Webb. He's got most of our handle, but we've written more tickets on Esper," Salleroli said.

At DraftKings Sportsbook, Esper is landing 49% of bets and 64% of money to win his first men's title. James Webb is the +200 second choice, and he's taking the second-most tickets and money. But Webb is well behind Esper in both counts, at 13% of bets/16% of dollars.

The full breakdown of DraftKings men's odds/action in the 2024 Nathan's Hot Dog Contest:

Dark Horse Plays

Patrick Bertoletti is the +1500 fourth choice in Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest odds. Bertoletti is ending a protracted absence from the contest and might be worth a look.

"Among those competing, he's got the record of 55 dogs, and he holds 17 competitive eating records," Salleroli said.

Salleroli pointed to King Yamamoto as a potential worthy long shot.

"He's rocking some pretty high odds. He's my wild-card for the vent, if anybody is looking to take a shot," Salleroli said.

At the moment, Yamamoto is only included as part of the Field odds at Caesars. Field is priced at +2800.

Queen of Coney Island

On the women's side, nine-time champion Miki Sudo aims to grab her 10th title at Coney Island. No surprise, Sudo is a solid favorite, sitting at -1000 in Caesars Sports' odds to win the Nathan's Hot Dog Contest

Sudo won seven straight titles from 2014-2020, then skipped the 2021 competition while pregnant with her son Max. She came back to win the 2022 and 2023 crowns, eating 39.5 hot dogs/buns last year. Sudo holds the women's record of 48.5, set in 2020.

"Sudo is such heavy chalk, so we're just seeing action on the No. 2 choice, Mayoi Ebihara, at +450," Salleroli said. "The public wants Ebihara. They want to see an upset."

At DraftKings, even at a steep -1200 price, Sudo is taking the most bets and most money. She's drawing 34% of tickets/62% of cash, while Ebihara (+600) is seeing 16% of tickets/18% of money.

The full breakdown of DraftKings women's odds/action in the 2024 Nathan's Hot Dog Contest:

Interestingly, Sudo is married to Nick Wehry, the +700 third choice at Caesars to win the men's contest. So there's a chance the couple could both bring home titles this year.

Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson is a senior reporter for VegasInsider. Based in Las Vegas since 1994, he's worked in the sports betting journalism/content space for more than a decade. He's most known for his deep roster of contacts behind sportsbook counters, providing readers and viewers with the ins-and-outs of how events are being bet. He's also a thought leader in the sports betting space, often appearing on or moderating panels at national conferences. More from Patrick Everson