The PGA Championship’s History of Defying Favorites

As the golf world gears up for another thrilling edition of the PGA Championship, one thing is certain: expect the unexpected.

While pundits and fans alike often place their bets on the pre-tournament favorites, probably Scottie Scheffler this year, history tells a different story — one of surprise victories and shattered expectations.

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Since the turn of the millennium, the PGA Championship has been a stage where favorites falter more often than they triumph. Out of the contenders who have entered the tournament with the weight of expectation on their shoulders, only a select few have managed to deliver when it mattered most. On a mere five occasions have we seen the pre-tournament favorite rise above the competition and claim victory. Among them, Tiger Woods stands tall, accomplishing the feat in 2000, 2006, and 2007, while Rory McIlroy did so in 2014, followed by Brooks Koepka in 2019.

In 2000, Woods was the favorite with odds of +160, followed by +200 in 2006 and +300 in 2007. McIlroy was +700 in 2014, while Koepka with +800 in 2019. Combined, the average odds of these victorious favorites stand at +432. 

Below is a breakdown of the pre-tournament favorite odds since 2000

The annals of the PGA Championship aren't solely filled with the triumph of the favorites. Since the turn of the new millennium, the acclaimed favorites have often found themselves falling short of expectations. The favorite has only cracked the top-10 a mere 12 times while finishing outside the top echelons on 15 occasions. Forget about making it to the top 10, twice since 2000 has the favorite not even made the cut. Rory McIlroy failed to do so in 2016 and Scottie Scheffler missed it in 2022. Such unpredictability has been the hallmark of this prestigious tournament, keeping fans on the edge of their seats with each swing of the club.

Below is a breakdown of how the pre-tournament favorites have placed in the PGA Championships since 2000. 

Since 2000, the average final place of the pre-tournament favorite has been 23rd place, highlighting the struggle for consistency among those burdened with high expectations. Even when excluding the outliers of McIlroy and Scheffler’s missed cuts, the average finish remains a modest 18.6, a testament to the tournament's ability to humble even the most favored contenders. 

And then there are the outliers, the ones who defy conventional wisdom and etch their names into golfing history. Rich Beem in 2002 and Shaun Micheel in 2003 were not even listed with the bookies; they were simply part of "the field" before emerging victorious—an embodiment of the tournament's capacity for surprise. Despite upsetting golfing legends, their wins didn’t match Phil Mickelson’s in 2021 in terms of ‘surprising’ the bookies. Ahead of the tournament in 2021, the odds of Phil Mickelson winning was +25000. The highest odds of the winner since 2000. Phil Mickelson became the oldest winner of the PGA Championship in 2021 at 50 years, and 11 months old at the time. 

Even golfing greats like Woods have not been immune to the PGA Championship's penchant for upsets. Since 2000, Woods has been the pre-tournament favorite a staggering 11 times, and he has won it on three of those occasions, as previously mentioned. Rory McIlroy, the second-most favored player, has been the favorite on five occasions, winning once as a favorite and once without having the additional pressure of the role. 

As we look ahead to this year's championship, the odds once again paint a picture of uncertainty. Dustin Johnson and Shane Lowry, both with odds of +4500, come closest to the historical average of +4317 for eventual winners. Meanwhile, Scottie Scheffler, the current favorite at +350, finds himself in familiar territory—a position that offers no guarantees in the face of the tournament's unpredictable nature. 

Below is a breakdown of the odds of the winners since 2000

The average score to par of the winner since 2000 has been an impressive -10.5, showcasing the remarkable caliber of play required to clinch victory at the PGA Championship. Brooks Koepka's triumph in 2019 stands as a recent example of a pre-tournament favorite living up to expectations, as that’s the last time we saw a pre-tournament favorite winning. 

Since 2000, American players have dominated the winner's circle at the PGA Championship, with 17 victories to their name, with golfers from Fiji, South Korea, Australia, Ireland, Germany, and Northern Ireland spoiling the party on a few occasions. 

In the end, the PGA Championship serves as a reminder that in the world of golf, anything can happen. As players tee off and fans hold their breath, one thing is certain: expect the unexpected.

All historical odds were collected from sportsoddshistory.com, with the cutoff being ahead of round one. Odds on this year's PGA Championships were checked and correct as of May 8 2024 8 AM ET. Find the data here.