Free Golf Picks & Predictions – The Open Championship
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Stay tuned for our picks for The Open Championship!
(Featured Image Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images)
Free Golf Winner Picks
Tournament winner markets are the most commonly wagered in golf betting, simply selecting a golfer to win the event for very good value. Because the value is so high, many bettors will wager on anywhere from one to five golfers in a single event.
VegasInsider provides Golf Free Picks for each event, picking winners for golfers that are favored, given mid-range odds, or long shots to consider.
Patrick Cantlay Tournament Winner (+6000)
I do not have any particular "love" for Cantlay this week, and frankly, his major-tournament history is a bit confounding. That said, he's one of the most level-headed players in golf, and I feel like a chaotic tournament with some wind and rain could work to his advantage. This is a value bet based on the odds. I was surprised to see Cantlay available at better than 50-to-1, so I will place a value bet here.
Ben Griffin Tournament Winner (+9000)
It seems as if the golf betting world may be forgetting about Griffin this week thanks to his missed cut at the John Deere, but prior to that, he was one of the hottest golfers on the planet, and this course seems like a strong fit for him, as accuracy will be required at all times. Going back to that missed cut, Griffin actually hit the ball very well that week - he was just one of the worst putters in the field. I would not expect that to carry over here, as Griffin ranks inside the top 30 in this field in Strokes Gained: Putting over the last 6 months. Griffin missed the cut the last 2 years at The Open Championship, which I think is a big reason for his 90-to-1 number, but he is also a much better golfer now than he was at those times.
Free Golf Matchup Picks
Keen on one particular golfer outperforming another? Perhaps you’re on the Brooks Koepka team and want to bet against his nemesis, Bryson DeChambeau?
Regardless, VegasInsider provides the best matchup selections for Golf Free Picks.
Instead of picking a tournament winner, bettors will select one specific golfer to finish in a higher position than another specific golfer.
This is known as matchup betting, and our experts provide top analysis on matchups for 72 holes of play or just one round.
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Golf Free Prop Picks
From group bets to nationality winners, even winning stroke margins, there are ample golf prop bets to select from.
Our VegasInsider golf experts go through the various prior markets for each event to find you the best value in exotic wagers.
Rory McIlroy – To Miss the Cut (+500)
It feels a little sacrilegious to bet against Rory at a home Open—but there’s a real case to be made here, especially at +500. The last time Royal Portrush hosted the Open in 2019, McIlroy famously missed the cut after a disastrous opening round. Fast forward to now, and the concerns are more than just narrative. Despite a runner-up finish recently, his last five starts include a missed cut and a disappointing T47. Statistically, he's been shaky in areas that matter most this week: he's 141st in proximity around the green, 107th in sand saves, and just 76th in total driving—surprisingly low for someone known for elite tee-to-green play. Portrush punishes mistakes, especially off the tee, and Rory’s recent accuracy issues could easily snowball if conditions turn tough. Add in the weight of expectations and the emotional baggage from 2019, and there’s enough volatility to make this a high-upside play worth considering.
Bryson DeChambeau – To Miss the Cut (+250)
Fading Bryson at +250 feels risky on paper given his major pedigree, but there’s real logic behind the play this week. He missed the cut in his only appearance at Royal Portrush, and his recent ball-striking numbers are cause for concern—he’s been wildly inaccurate off the tee in his last five rounds and has lost strokes putting in four straight starts. He also dropped -1.58 strokes to the field in his last major, which is a red flag for a player who usually brings it in big events. At Portrush, where the penalty for missing fairways is often severe and the short game needs to be razor-sharp, DeChambeau’s recent issues off the tee and on the greens could be a real problem. He’ll always have the power to string together birdies, but if the wind kicks up and his accuracy issues persist, he could be in for a short week. At this number, the upside on the miss-cut bet is worth the squeeze.
Kevin Yu – Top 20 Finish (+475)
Kevin Yu might not be a household name yet, but he’s quietly putting together one of the more impressive statistical profiles on Tour—and this could be the breakout stage. He’s making his Open debut, but his current form is trending in all the right ways: T34, T21, T25, and a solo 3rd in his last four starts. What stands out most is how dominant he’s been off the tee—ranking 8th in strokes gained OTT—and he pairs that with solid putting and an 11th-best scoring average on Tour. His birdie average (4.22 per round) also sits 11th, which shows he can take advantage of scoring chances when they appear—no easy feat on a links setup like Portrush. While he’ll need to adjust to the creativity and control required in windy, uneven terrain, Yu’s length and consistency off the tee should keep him in play, and if the putter stays steady, he has all the tools to land a top-20 at nearly 5-to-1 odds.
Maverick McNealy – To Make the Cut (-170)
McNealy doesn’t have experience at Royal Portrush, but his well-rounded game makes him a solid pick to stick around for the weekend. He’s on a nice run of form—finishing T22, T17, 37, and T5 in his last four starts—and he’s quietly doing a lot of things well. He ranks inside the top 50 in strokes gained off the tee (38th), putting (32nd), and approach (44th), with an average driving distance over 300 yards. On a course like Portrush—where weather, bounce, and breaks can introduce chaos—guys who do a bit of everything tend to fare better than specialists. McNealy doesn’t pop in any one area, but his overall steadiness raises his floor, which is exactly what we’re betting on here. At -170, it’s a reasonable price for a player trending in the right direction and equipped to handle the variety of shots links golf demands.
Jordan Smith – To Make the Cut (-150)
Jordan Smith may not have played Royal Portrush before, but his profile fits the demands of links golf—steady, accurate, and quietly effective. He’s made three straight cuts, including a T22 and a runner-up finish, and he’s gained strokes overall in each of his last three starts. While he doesn’t have a flashy stat line, he’s a solid ball-striker with consistently positive strokes gained tee-to-green, and that kind of reliability tends to travel well, especially on a course that demands control and patience. Portrush can punish the wild driver, but Smith’s accuracy off the tee could help him avoid the worst of the trouble. At -150, you’re backing a player in good form with a tidy, all-around game—and that’s often all it takes to survive the chaos of an Open Championship weekend.
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Golf Free Picks Offered by VegasInsider
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How to Bet on Golf
Golf sports betting has gained much more exposure and interest in the past few years, and with plenty of plus-money prices littered throughout the various forms of golf wagers, the chance for bigger scores is part of the reason behind that increased popularity.
How Do Golf Odds Work?
The most popular bet in Golf is the “Odds to Win” wager or what some might call a future wager.
Put simply, you just need to pick the overall winner of the tournament. You select any of the golfers in the field and your payout for the bet will depend on the odds given at the time of the wager.
For example, Justin Thomas is listed as a 10/1 betting choice. If you wager $100 on Thomas to win the event and he comes in first, then you would win $1,000 (100 x10).
You would collect $1,100, which includes your win and stake ($100).
How Do you Bet on Golf Matchups?
Matchup betting in golf is just as simplistic as “Odds to Win” wagers.
In this bet, the objective is to select one golfer to finish ahead of another golfer.
Similar to other sports, there is money-line odds associated with each matchup, which means there will always be a favorite and an underdog.
For example, Dustin Johnson (-135) vs. Jason Day (+115) where Johnson is the favorite and Day is the underdog.
In this particular matchup, gamblers looking for a payout of $100 on Dustin Johnson would have to risk $135 to win $100.
Those betting $100 on Jason Day (+115) would earn a payout of $115 if Day finishes ahead of Johnson in the tournament.
To win your matchup wagers, you need the golfer you selected to post a lower score than the opponent selected in the matchups.
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How Does Betting the Field in Golf Work?
Many golf events will include a betting selection called the Field.
This bet consists of all golfers not listed in the “Odds to Win.”
The size of golf tournaments vary and it’s rare to see oddsmakers put a price on every ball striker that will tee off.
Golfers who are given the least opportunity to win will be grouped into the “Field” odds and paid out accordingly if they win.
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