RBC Heritage Picks and Predictions

Sam Wagman Sports Betting Expert

6 minute read

And just like that, the 2023 Masters has concluded, Jon Rahm is your new green jacket winner, and we are on to the next elevated event on the schedule, the RBC Heritage.

Won by Jordan Spieth in 2022, this event has certainly featured a bit of an Augusta National hangover from the previous week in the past, and who can blame the competitors? Prepping for a major takes a ton out of these guys, and several have already withdrawn from the event, including Rory McIlroy and Jason Day.

With the elevation of this event, the RBC field will see a dramatic increase in star power for the first time, leading to a massive increase in notable names. Given that this tournament has always been held the week following the Masters, many top players would choose to take this week off. Now that they aren't, let's dive into this week's betting preview.

Golf Betting Resources
2023 RBC Heritage

• Date: Thursday Apr. 13 - Sunday Apr. 16, 2023
• Venue: Harbour Town Golf Links
• Location: Hilton Head, South Carolina
• Par-Yardage: 71, 7,099 yards
• Defending Champion: Jordan Spieth
• TV: CBS, Golf Channel

Accuracy matters over everything most weeks on Tour, but at Harbour Town, where tiny greens and tree trouble are problems nearly every player has to deal with here, being precise with the golf ball from tee-to-green is always going to be a considerable strength.

This is a true Pete Dye design in that the greens are very small, the bunkers are plentiful and annoying, and the par 4s are short and devious. Harbour Town exemplifies all of these things, and is typically one of the easiest courses to handicap on the Tour. The prevailing idea: accuracy off the tee, iron ball-striking is the biggest key, and know how to get up and down.

This is a true positional, second-shot course. Longer hitters don't have a considerable advantage here, as the average driving distance is nearly 15 yards shorter than Tour averages.

RBC Heritage Betting Odds

At the top of the board, two names reign supreme, of course: Rahm (+900) and Scottie Scheffler (+850). The last two Masters champions are far and away at the top of their respective powers currently, and it doesn't seem like anyone can come close to their current level of dominance over this sport.

The question for both this week is simple: Will they have the dreaded Masters hangover? Both have competitive fire we really haven't seen since peak-level Tiger Woods, so I don't expect either to bow out easily. On the other hand, I don't think anyone would be that shocked if they had only 95% of their stuff this week, instead of the usual 100%.

After them, Patrick Cantlay (+1200) comes around. Last year's runner-up finisher currently is dealing with the blowback of the slowness of his final-round play at Augusta, so maybe he feels like he has something to prove in Hilton Head? We shall see. He's certainly a perfect course fit.

Rounding out the top 5 are two guys who are starting to get things going finally after slow starts to the season in Collin Morikawa (+1800) and Spieth (+2000). Both finished highly at Augusta and are solid course fits for this course. Spieth being the defending champion is an interesting angle to play, although you should take note that he noted in his post-Masters press conference that his body is a little worn out after so much golf recently and wasn't really focusing during Sunday's round (He still shot 65 with 3 bogeys, what planet is this guy even from?!?)

RBC Heritage Contenders

• Scottie Scheffler +850
• Jon Rahm +900
• Patrick Cantlay +1200
• Collin Morikawa +1800
• Jordan Spieth +2000
• More Golfers
• (Odds Subject to Change)

Golfers to Watch - RBC Heritage
Top Picks and Predictions

Contender to Back
Max Homa +2900

We almost never see odds this good for Homa in a non-major anymore, and even with this strong of a field, I'm inclined to take what the universe is giving me. He played the weekend at Augusta, but it was an extremely lackluster finish, continuing this trend of excelling in non-majors while faltering in the moment.

Homa's game sets up really well for this course, despite him only having played it once in his career: 2020, where he finished T41. As we so often say lately, that Homa was a completely different golfer from current Homa, and we have to ignore a lot of those much older results.

Back Homa here because he is an elite ball-striker who can be very accurate off the tee. His iron play will not let you down most of the time and he loves to fire into these pins. In a non-major event with a major-level field, take Homa on your betting card.

Mid-Range Value
J.T. Poston +6000

I struggled with who to put in this 30-60/1 group because truthfully, the golfers in this range don't stand out to me all that much. Poston, though, always flies under the radar in fields like this and I believe he is once again here.

Poston is a terrific fit for this course. The stats won't tell the full story, but Posty has 3 top tens at this course in his last 4 attempts, and 2 top tens in his last 3 starts. He's not going to wow you with form, but he's a grinder that can get the job done with crafty iron plays and solid Bermuda putting.

A plus is that he's won the Wyndham Championship earlier in his career, and Sedgefield Country Club is a very similar course comp to Harbour Town. I think Poston is a play that makes a lot of sense for people who are looking for a horse in this mid-range away from the studs that may be tired after the Masters last week.

Long Shot Pick
Si Woo Kim +7000

A Pete Dye course is on the schedule, and Si Woo Kim appears to take it on! A friend of mine coined Kim as "Pete Dye's Daddy" for how well he plays these tracks, and I have to agree, with two wins at those courses.

Not only is he a course design specialist, his stats line up very well for what Harbour Town wants you to excel at: He ranks 1st in the 175-200 proximity bucket, which comprises over 26% of the approach shot distribution on this course and ranks highly in ball-striking gained, bogeys avoided, and fairways gained. Again, he's not going to wow you off the tee, but he doesn't need to here!

Si Woo's main weakness is always going to be the putter, and the small greens will mitigate that struggle somewhat. If his irons are on point, watch out for Si Woo. He does have a T2 finish here, dating back to 2018.

Top 20 Finish
Matt Kuchar +200

Course history tends to drive my placement bets, and none stand out more than Matt Kuchar does. Kuch has been playing this track since it was known as the MCI Heritage all the way back in 2003, and he's racked up seven top 10 finishes with FOUR top 5s, including a T3 last season and a win in 2014.

Working around the green and avoiding bogeys are two of his specialties, and I expect Kuchar to be up for the task once again this year, even with this elevated field. He has showed he can still compete with the young guns multiple times this season and while betting him to win is a tall task, him placing in this field is very doable. This has been a profitable bet all season for me so far and I expect it to continue.

How to Bet on Golf

Golf betting has gained much more exposure and interest in the past few years, and with plenty of plus-money prices littered throughout the various forms of golf wagers, the chance for bigger scores is part of the reason behind that increased popularity.

2023 Golf Betting Schedule

Sportsbooks ensure that there are no shortage of wagering options on golf tournaments every week, and it isn't all about picking the winner. Grabbing the outright winner of a golf tournament is the best way to get that 'big score' but it's also the hardest wager to cash. After all, a typical professional golf tournament has a field of 140+ different players to consider.

Understanding Golf Odds and Bets

Most golf odds are listed in the fractional format – 10/1 on Dustin Johnson for example – and in that particular case you would multiply the amount bet by that first number to project your winnings. So a $100 bet on DJ to win that particular event would win you $1000.

If you are more comfortable with the American version of odds listings that you typically see across the other major North American sports – ie +1000 – these numbers are easily convertible. Online and app based books may already have that option built in, but the easiest way to do it yourself is to add two zeros to the first number in the fraction. So a 10/1 price on DJ converts to +1000 in that format.

Sam Wagman

Sam Wagman is a fantasy football and sports betting content expert who has loved sports his entire life. He started covering all of the Philadelphia sports teams back in 2019 and switched over to fantasy football and sports betting in 2021, mostly delving into football and golf betting. He joined the VegasInsider team in 2022 and has written for sites like Footballguys and Fantasy Points as well. Sam is a diehard sports fanatic to the end and can frequently be found playing different sports. He likes golf the most, and is currently trying to break 80 before he breaks his clubs. He loves his dog Rocky, the beach, and driving with the windows down, though he's at his happiest when he's yelling at the TV for his bets to hit or his fantasy team to win. More from Sam Wagman