Valero Texas Open Picks, Predictions, Odds

Daniel Dobish Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

Our VI PGA handicapping experts have compiled their best bets for the the Valero Texas Open, which is set to take place on Thursday, March 31 and ends on Sunday, April 3 at the TPC San Antonio's Oaks Course.

This event is played on the Oaks Course, and is listed as a Par 72 at 7.494 yards with Bermudagrass greens. On the plains of South-Central Texas, temperatures will be in the mid- to upper 80's, and there is no precipitation in the forecast for the entire event. Winds have been an issue at this event in the past, but for now, the forecast calls for gusts of 15 mph or less for the entire duration, so Mother Nature shouldn't be much of a factor.

The key factors of focus at TPC San Antonio will be on the Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, as well as the SG: Approach categories. This layout favors those who are accurate and long from the tee box, so look into big bangers in the Driving Distance category. And, as always, don't be a sorry putter. SG: Putting on the Bermudagrass surface isn't a must, but it's awfully nice.

Jordan Spieth, a Lone Star State native, is the defending champion in this event, which is a great tune-up tournament to get ready for The Masters in April.

• Jordan Spieth Top 20 Finish (-125)
• Luke List Top 40 Finish (+100)
• Maverick McNealy over Gary Woodland (-110)

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JORDAN SPIETH TOP 20 FINISH (-125)

There is still plenty of value here. Spieth, the defending champ, is tied for second with the shortest odds on the board. Picking a winner in golf is difficult, even when someone looks like a clear-cut favorite. I like to give myself a little wiggle room in the event a golfer has one poor round which sends him tumbling down the scoreboard a bit.

There is no reason to go deeper than Top 20 for Spieth, as there's too much risk and not enough reward. But Spieth finishing inside the Top 20 is near even-money, and a good play.

First, he has something to prove after missing the cut at The PLAYERS Championship last time out, splashing cold water on a three-event cut run which included a runner-up showing at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. And, again, he is a Texas native and the defending champ here, so he'll have pride on his side, too. As long as he doesn't push too hard, a strong showing is in the offing.

Spieth burned this course up with an 18-under 270 en route to the title last season, including a final-round 66, and two rounds of 67. The 2020 event was canceled due to the global COVID-19 pandemic, but he was 30th in 2019 prior to that. He is comfortable at this course and he will produce.

LUKE LIST TOP 40 FINISH (+100)

List at even-money for a Top 40 finish seems like a steal. In fact, he is also worth a small-unit play for a Top 20 showing (+250), and here's why.

List checks off all the boxes on the, well, the list...for success at this event. He is fifth in Driving Distance (316.4 yards) on the PGA Tour. While he isn't terribly accurate, he also checks in fifth in the Greens In Regulation (GIR) category at 72.92%. In addition, he ranks 21st in Scoring Average (70.182), and he is sixth on the PGA Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee, 13th in SG: Approach and 16th in SG: Around-the-Green. He also tops the charts in SG: Tee-to-Green (1.798) across 30 measured rounds.

So why not bet List to win the whole thing? Well, putting is an issue, and something which holds him back. And isn't it super frustrating to crush those 250-yard bombs on your local course only to misfire on a 6-foot putt? The same holds true for List, and those who bet him. He is a banger, but not terribly handy with the steel on the dance floor, so tread lightly.

MAVERICK MCNEALY OVER GARY WOODLAND (-110)

Matchup plays are the best, and a good way to isolate just two golfers and forget the rest.

McNealy ranks 29th in SG: Putting, and he is a respectable 52nd in Driving Distance (303.8) with a 57.01 Driving Accuracy Percentage, hitting 362 of a possible 635 fairways. He ranks 24th on the Tour in Scoring Average (70.212), and he is a solid 37th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 30th in SG: Total. His issues are in the short game, particularly in Scrambling.

Woodland is a banger, knocking it out there at a 311.9-yard clip, good for 14th on the Tour. However, he is a touch less accurate at 51.32% off in Driving Accuracy Percentage, hitting just 234 of a possible 456 fairways. He isn't as bad in the SG: Around-the-Green category, but he is just 80th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 46th in Scoring Average (70.563). His putting is atrocious, too, ranking 121st with 28.97 Putts Per Round.

McNealy has made the cut in 10 consecutive events, including a seventh-place showing at The Genesis Invitational. While Woodland was sixth last season in this event, the 37-year-old has missed the cut in six of his 10 events this season, which has been a complete disaster.

Daniel Dobish

Dan is a handicapper and sports betting expert for VegasInsider with years of experience writing for a number of top publications in the industry. More from Daniel Dobish