The PLAYERS Championship Predictions, Picks, Odds

Daniel Dobish Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

Our VI PGA handicapping experts have compiled their best bets for the The PLAYERS Championship, which is set to take place on Thursday, March 10 and ends on Sunday, March 13 at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.

TPC Sawgrass is a Par 72 course measuring 7,454 yards, and The PLAYERS Championship is often referred to as the unofficial fifth major. There is plenty of water at this Northeast Florida venue, including the famous Par 3 17th hole which features an island green.

Justin Thomas is the defending champ after posting a 14-under 274 at this event last season, including an 8-under 64 in the third round. He has made the cut in six consecutive PLAYERS Championships, finishing 11th or higher in three of those outings.

• Justin Thomas Top 20 Finish (-165)
• Abraham Ancer Top 40 Finish (-110)
• Abraham Ancer to make the cut (-185)
• Sergio Garcia Top 40 Finish (-140)
• Sergio Garcia to make the cut (-250)
• Corey Conners - Top Canadian (+150)
• Russell Knox - Top Scottish (-130)

JUSTIN THOMAS TOP 20 FINISH (-165)

This is a difficult to win, and nobody has ever won in consecutive seasons. Picking the winner for gambling purposes is like picking a needle out of a haystack, but Thomas is especially unattractive. However, while I don't expect Thomas to finish on top of the heap again, I also don't expect him to fade away. Not by a long shot. Thomas won last season's event, he was 35th in the previous installment in 2019, 11th in 2018 and 3rd in the 2016 event.

Thomas has not only made the cut in each of his seven events so far this season, but he has finished 20th or better in every event so far, and he is eighth or better in five of those tournaments, including three Top 5 finishes. J.T. is actually a tremendous value at this price point, as he probably should be a little more expensive given his tremendous success this season, and the fact he is defending champion.

ABRAHAM ANCER TOP 40 FINISH (-110)

Ancer last appeared at The Genesis Invitational, posting a final-round 71 to tumble down the leaderboard a bit to 39th. Still, he has made the cut in three consecutive events, and six of the past seven tournaments. That includes a pair of finishes of 14th or better.

The Mexican-born golfer has played at this event twice in the past, posting a solid 5-under 283 for 22nd place in 2021. He was gaining confidence as the event went along before struggling with a 1-over 73 to splash cold water on a strong first three rounds. He was 12th in 2019, following the same recipe as last season. He was strong in the first three rounds before tumbling down the board with an even-par 72 on Sunday.

The good news is that Ancer has been strong in his two previous appearances at this course, playing into Sunday with a shot. He has struggled on Sundays at TPC Sawgrass, but that's happened to the best of them. He'd be a very risky play for a Top 20 finish, but as a Top 40 play, he should be a shoe-in.

ABRAHAM ANCER TO MAKE THE CUT (-185)

If you like Ancer for a Top 40 finish, you certainly must like Ancer to make the cut. At this price he is pretty affordable. Ancer won't even cost you two times your potential return. Folding this bet into a multi-prop parlay is a wise decision.

SERGIO GARCIA TOP 40 FINISH (-140)

Perhaps there is no more of a constant at this entire event than the Spaniard Garcia. He has not missed the cut at TPC Sawgrass since 2003, making the cut in 18 straight events. He finished as a runner-up in 2007 and 2015, while winning the event in playoff against Paul Goydos in 2008.

The 42-year-old is starting to get a little long in the tooth, but he has made four consecutive cuts this season, including two during swing season and two at The Genesis Invitational and last weekend at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He was a respectable 38th last week, and he has been 39th or better in each of his past four events.

Garcia is always a guarantee to make the cut here, and there is just something about this course setup which agrees with him. At (+175), Garcia for a Top 20 finish isn't a bad small-unit wager, either.

SERGIO GARCIA TO MAKE THE CUT (-250)

As mentioned above, Garcia has made the cut in 18 consecutive showings at The PLAYERS Championship. While it's a little risky to bet two and a half times your potential return, it's still worth a look. Garcia just doesn't go home after two rounds at this tournament.

COREY CONNERS - TOP CANADIAN (+150)

There are five golfers from The Great White North in the field for The PLAYERS Championship - Conners (+150), Mackenzie Hughes (+250), Adam Hadwin (+400), Taylor Pendrith (+450) and Roger Sloan (+900). Conners is the safest play, as he finished an impressive seventh last season at this event, posting a 10-under 278, including a final-round 66. This is a prop which is a huge value at plus-money. Take advantage.

RUSSELL KNOX - TOP SCOTTISH (-130)

In what is essentially a head-to-head tournament matchup bet, Knox (-130) is the better play over Martin Laird (+105) for the top Scottish golfer at The PLAYERS Championship. It's a tremendous value, as Knox streaks in with four consecutive cuts made, and six out of the past seven, including a 7th-place showing at the Sony Open in Hawaii.

Knox made the cut here last season, but tumbled down the scoreboard with a final-round 76 to end up 4-over 292 and in 67th place. He was a much better 35th in the 2019 event, and prior to two missed cuts in 2018 and 2017, Knox posted a 5-under 283, good for 19th in 2016 at this event.

Laird was a very ordinary 52nd last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitation at Bay Hill, including a final-round 80. He was 69th last season at TPC Sawgrass, posting a 5-over 293, right behind Knox. Laird also missed the cut in three of his previous four appearances in this event.

Daniel Dobish

Dan is a handicapper and sports betting expert for VegasInsider with years of experience writing for a number of top publications in the industry. More from Daniel Dobish