RBC Heritage Picks, Predictions, Odds

Daniel Dobish Sports Betting Expert

3 minute read

Our VI PGA handicapping experts have compiled their best bets for the the RBC Heritage, which is set to take place on Thursday, April 14 and ends on Sunday, April 17 at the Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head, S.C.

The course is a Par 71 measuring at 7,121 yards, and near the sea, as you would expect it features Bermudagrass greens. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in the mid- to upper 70's with mild breezes. The weekend has the best chances for precipitation, including a decent chance of showers on Saturday.

The key factors of focus at Harbour Town Links will be Strokes Gained: Approach, as we have some tiny greens and plenty of dog legs. You don't necessarily need bangers here, but players with more precision, especially in the short game. Greens In Regulation (GIR) is super important, and SG: Around-the-Green and SG: Putting are important this week, as usual.

Veteran Stewart Cink is the defending champion, as the 48-year-old pick up the surprising victory last season with a 19-under 265. That came on the heels of a 12th-place finish at The Masters, so he was amped up. This season he missed the cut at Augusta National, and doesn't come in with anywhere near the momentum.

• Collin Morikawa Top 20 Finish (-125)
• Russell Henley Top 20 Finish (+150)
• Justin Thomas (-115) Over Cameron Smith

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COLLIN MORIKAWA TOP 20 FINISH (-125)

Morikawa is the chalk this week for a reason. He isn't a banger from the tee box, hitting it out at 'just' 299.7 yards across 18 measured rounds, which ranks just 88th on the PGA Tour. However, he is 9th in Driving Accuracy Percentage (68.33%), hitting 246 out of 360 possible fairways. In addition, he ranks 10th in GIR (71.15%), hitting 333 greens out of 468 total holes.

His numbers prove your don't have to mash it to have success, as he is sixth in Birdie Average (4.62) and eighth in Scoring Average (69.890). He is also a very useful 20th in SG: Approach-the-Green, while checking in 31st in SG: Putting and 24th in SG: Tee-to-Green. There's not much to dislike about Morikawa's game, especially this weekend.

The 25-year-old finished seventh in this event last season, posting a 12-under 272, and he might have been better if not for a final-round 1-over 72 which sent him tumbling down the leaderboard after 68 or better in each of his first three rounds. Morikawa heads into this event with a chip on his shoulder after that fateful Sunday, and that's dangerous for the rest of the field. Playing Morikawa for a Top 10 Finish (+170) is also worth a small-unit play.

RUSSELL HENLEY TOP 20 FINISH (+150)

If you're looking for slightly longer odds than Morikawa's, check out Henley. He leads the PGA Tour in SG: Approach-the-Green with an average of 1.105 across 37 measured rounds. In addition, he fits the bill for accuracy and great short game, while not serving as a banged, similar to Morikawa.

Henley is just 108th in Driving Distance (296.8 yards), while ranking 23rd in Driving Accuracy Percentage (66.92%) and ninth in GIR (71.18%). He is also similar to Morikawa in that he ranks seventh in Birdie Average (4.60) and fifth in Scoring Average (69.796).

If you have Morikawa as part of your betting slip, you'll also want Henley. They're very, very similar in production and ability, and check off so many boxes for success at Harbour Links. You need to only look to last season's ninth-place finish at The RBC Heritage, as he had an 11-under 273, including a final-round 67. Look for Henley to do very well this weekend.

JUSTIN THOMAS OVER CAMERON SMITH (-115)

Thomas might not have been fitted for a green jacket last weekend, but he ended up eighth with a 1-under 287. He is eighth or better in seven of the past nine events, and he has made the cut in every tournament this season.

Thomas ranks fifth in SG: Approach-the-Green across 27 measured rounds, and while he is a bit of a banger off the tee with some accuracy issues, he is still a respectable 17th in GIR (70.52%), while ranking second on TOUR in both Birdie Average (5.14) and Scoring Average (69.648). And, if the situation calls for it on the seaside course, he is also second among all golfers in Sand Save Percentage (72.0%).

He didn't play in this event last season, but he was eighth in 2010 with a 17-under 267, including a scorching final-round 63. The accuracy off the tee is a little worrisome, but he should be just fine to overcome Smith. The Aussie is eighth in SG: Approach, so he is right there. But he is even more inaccurate from the tee box at just 56.43%, or 148th on Tour, and he ranks 147th in SG: Off-the-Tee, too. He was ninth at this event last season, but missed the cut in 2019 and 2020.

Daniel Dobish

Dan is a handicapper and sports betting expert for VegasInsider with years of experience writing for a number of top publications in the industry. More from Daniel Dobish