Farmers Insurance Picks, Predictions, and Odds
It's Week Four in California for the PGA Tour this week, as the Farmers Insurance Open takes center stage after Jon Rahm took down the American Express last week at +650 betting odds.
Farmers Insurance Odds, Picks & Predictions
Golf Betting Resources
2023 Farmers Insurance Open
- Date: Wednesday Jan, 25 - Saturday Jan. 28, 2023
- Venue: Torrey Pines North and South Course
- Location: San Diego, California
- Par-Yardage: 72/7,258 and 72/7,802
- TV: Golf Channel, NBC
- VegasInsider Free Expert Picks
- Betting Odds
- Bet on the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open at BetMGM
Torrey Pines is not an easy course. Tree-lined course, narrow fairways, long, thick Rye Overseed rough all make for a tough 3 days on the South Course at Torrey, and that's before you add in the fact that the course is one of the longest on Tour at over 7,800 yards.
To touch on the North Course that the players will alternate playing on Wednesday and Thursday, the most important thing is that it's over 500 yards shorter than the South Course and much easier, playing 2-3 strokes lower than the South Course on average. Due to this, it's imperative that you nail your round on the North Course, like past winners such as Justin Rose and Patrick Reed did.
Going back to the South Course though, the fairways rank as the most missed on Tour, due to being only 25 feet wide. The greens are also hard to hit, as they average about 5,000 square feet, one of the lower numbers on the Tour. This puts a big emphasis on not only strokes gained: approach but around strokes gained: around the green as well as scrambling.
There are rumors that there will be a few rainstorms between now and Wednesday as well, which will only make this course play tougher, so you want to choose a golfer than can play well in not ideal conditions (Justin Thomas, anyone?)
All in all, this will set up to be the most difficult challenge on the schedule so far this spring and it should be an awesome tournament, as Torrey Pines never fails to appeal to all viewers and fans.
Farmers Insurance Open Betting Odds
So we've had a number of birdie-fests that required you to be extremely solid with the flatstick in order to contend in the last couple tournaments, which means it's a nice feeling to switch all that up at the Farmers, which hasn't had a winner over -15 except one time in the past 9 seasons.
This is however, a course that still likes good course history, and we have that here. There are seven players who have posted multiple top-10 placements over the last five years: Jon Rahm, Ryan Palmer, Justin Rose, Tony Finau, Jason Day, Luke List, and Will Zalatoris.
The top 10 players in this field in terms of total strokes gained at Torrey Pines are: Jon Rahm, Jason Day, Tony Finau, Justin Rose, Hideki Matsuyama, Ryan Palmer, Keegan Bradley, Luke List, Justin Thomas, and Gary Woodland. That list displays a clear trend of players with solid consistency in majors, distance off the tee, and an ability to scramble for par or better in difficult conditions.
Jon Rahm (+450) once again takes an odds hit, down from +650 last week, but that doesn't seem to matter to him as he goes for his third consecutive win in 3 starts this season. I'll let you guess how many times someone has done that. Hint: If you're guessing other players than Tiger Woods, you most likely aren't right.
After Rahm, there's nobody else from the OWGR Top 5, but Rahm does get joined by the back half of the top 10 in Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, and Will Zalatoris.
Let's take a look below at some players I think will be strong contenders from each price range this weekend.
Farmers Insurance Open Contenders
- Jon Rahm: +450
- Xander Schauffele: +1200
- Tony Finau: +1400
- Collin Morikawa: +1600
- Justin Thomas: +1600
- Will Zalatoris: +1800
- Max Homa: +2200
- Sungjae Im +2200
- Jason Day: +2500
- More Golfers
- (Odds Subject to Change)
Golfers to Watch - Farmers Insurance Open Top Picks and Predictions
Contender to Back
Will Zalatoris +1800
We're back on Willy Z again this week, and once again he checks all the boxes we want to see. When we watched Zalatoris just barely miss out on his first title here last year by way of losing to Luke List in that playoff, we learned that he definitely has all the tools to compete here, and that starts with him being the best approach player currently on tour. Since that playoff, Zalatoris has matured, been in contention at some of the biggest tournaments in the world, and won his first tournament.
Over the past 36 rounds, Zalatoris is #1 in proximity from 200 yards out and 6th in ball striking. While his putter is never going to be his best attribute, he did gain strokes putting in 3 of his 4 rounds last week at the American Express and should be able to find his way into the hunt late on Saturday afternoon.
Mid-Range Value
Keegan Bradley +6600
Bradley is just one of those guys where it needs to go right all four days for him to have a shot, but he's ultra-talented and can easily put it off. He has excellent course history at Torrey Pines, given that he has 6 finishes of T25 or better here and pair of top 5 finishes as well. He's never going to wow you on his approach game, but he's strong in the Fairways Gained category as well as off the tee and truly shines on the longer Par 5s where he's going need to be able to score this week to keep up with the elite tier.
Long Shot Pick
Davis Riley +12500
I was extremely high on Riley last season to a fault, and ultimately I had to conclude that he really wasn't doing anything special despite a couple of early nice finishes in the season. It was nice to see him pop up highly on my model, where he ranked 15th behind strong showings in Par 4 scoring from 450-500 as well as strong numbers from the 200+ proximity bucket.
Riley is another guy who isn't going to wow anybody with his golf swing, but he can hit the ball close, as evidenced by his top-30 ranking in the field in strokes gained on approach. He's being given very generous odds at 125-1 for this tournament and if he has a strong Wednesday, Riley can make a deep run. I like his top-20 finish a lot as well, you can find it at +350 on Bet365.
Top 20 Finish
Sungjae Im +110
I was very surprised to see Sungjae Im check in at plus-money to snag a top 20 in this tournament, given that he has 3 top-20s in his last 4 events, a strong track record. Im also posted a 6th-place finish here last season and is a solid contender choice for this tournament, given his proficiency off the tee (2nd) as well as his Par 4 efficiency (4th) and his proximity from 200+ (2nd).
Im actually checked in at 2nd on my model this week, but part of his issues have always been the closing of tournaments for him, so I love his ladders all the way up to top-5, which currently is +475. You can get a top-10 finish for Sungjae at +240, and both of these are also at Bet365.
How to Bet on Golf
Golf betting has gained much more exposure and interest in the past few years, and with plenty of plus-money prices littered throughout the various forms of golf wagers, the chance for bigger scores is part of the reason behind that increased popularity.
Sportsbooks ensure that there are no shortage of wagering options on golf tournaments every week, and it isn't all about picking the winner. Grabbing the outright winner of a golf tournament is the best way to get that 'big score' but it's also the hardest wager to cash. After all, a typical professional golf tournament has a field of 140+ different players to consider.
Understanding Golf Odds and Bets
Most golf odds are listed in the fractional format – 10/1 on Dustin Johnson for example – and in that particular case you would multiply the amount bet by that first number to project your winnings. So a $100 bet on DJ to win that particular event would win you $1000.
If you are more comfortable with the American version of odds listings that you typically see across the other major North American sports – ie +1000 – these numbers are easily convertible. Online and app based books may already have that option built in, but the easiest way to do it yourself is to add two zeros to the first number in the fraction. So a 10/1 price on DJ converts to +1000 in that format.
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