Valero Texas Open Picks, Predictions, Odds
It's going to take some time to cool down from the heat of how the WGC Dell-Technologies Match Play Event finished last week, with both Sam Burns and Cameron Young upsetting their higher-ranked competitors in Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy to square off for the title, with Burns coming out on top.
A pre-Major tournament will always have a relatively weaker field, as guys would prefer to peak for the “big one” the following week. This field is already on the weaker side and we've seen Keith Mitchell and Stephen Jaeger withdraw in recent days.
Weaker overall fields can bring unique opportunities down the betting board, though, as the gap between the top players in the field and the rest of the pack isn't nearly as large in those cases, and that's precisely what we've got for the Valero Texas Open this week.
Case in point, over the past seven years in the PGA event the week before the Masters, we've had winners that include Carlos Ortiz, Corey Conners, Ian Poulter, Russell Henley, Jim Herman, JB Holmes, J.J. Spaun, and Matt Jones, so stretching out one's range this week in interested parties may not be the worst option for golf bettors everywhere.
Let's get to the breakdown:
2023 Valero Texas Open
- Date: Thursday March 30 - Sunday Apr. 2, 2023
- Venue: TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)
- Location: San Antonio, Texas
- Par-Yardage: 72, 7,435 yards
- Defending Champion: J.J. Spaun (2022)
- TV: CBS, Golf Channel
Conners used a great week in the approach game to claim this trophy back in 2019, as TPC San Antonio is a course where the approach game means a little bit more with so many runoffs and catch areas around the greens that can turn a drive in the middle of the fairway into a bogey in a hurry.
As with many other Texas-based events, wind could be a big factor this week, but if it's not a huge concern, bettors should expect the guys playing the best in this field to go quite low. The only other real defense this course has is its bunkers and firmness, so target the players who excel out of sand and aren't afraid to spin it back.
It's a course that's known for relatively slow green speeds which is why many of the big names pass on this event pre-Masters to avoid complicating their putting stroke for the challenge Augusta's speedy greens bring every year, so even some of the guys who tend to struggle with the flat stick but are great in the approach game can make a lot of sense to back this week.
Conners won by two strokes with a -20 score, and back in 2018, Andrew Landry took this tournament down by the same margin with a winning score of -17. Both of those names were better than +15000 in the pre-tournament markets, so those that don't mind taking out a few flyers on guys down the board shouldn't be so hesitant in firing away.
Valero Texas Open
Betting Odds
Mitchell's withdrawal from the tournament hurts a little bit, but there are still some notable names on this odds board that you can be happy to see. At the top. Tyrell Hatton (+1300) takes the pole position, followed by Rickie Fowler (+1800), who needs a win and nothing less to qualify for the Masters this year.
After that decidedly top tier, Si Woo Kim (+2200), past winner Conners (+2400), and Hideki Matsuyama (+2500), who's nursing a neck injury, come next in the betting odds.
Valero Texas Open Contenders
- Tyrell Hatton +1300
- Rickie Fowler +1800
- Si Woo Kim +2200
- Corey Conners +2400
- Hideki Matsuyama +2500
- More Golfers
- (Odds Subject to Change)
From there you've got guys such as Taylor Montgmery (+2700), Chris Kirk (+2800), Davis Riley (+2800) rounding out the next wave of players, with Matt Kuchar (+3100) and 2022 champion Spaun (+3300) the only other names below the 40/1 mark.
An interesting name to watch here is Horse for the Course Charley Hoffman.
He sits at +12500 this year, but Hoffman's course history here with a win, two runner-ups, a third, and four other Top-13 finishes here the past 10 years will likely make him a popular play for the course history aficionados.
A former winner headlines the card this week, though.
Contender to Back
Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners +2400
Conners feels like a near-PERFECT fit for the TPC San Antonio course that the Valero Texas Open has used since 2010, and wouldn't you know it: he has never finished outside of the top 35 in any of his four attempts at this tournament, including a win in 2019.
First off, we have to start with the ball-striking aspect of Conners' game, which is probably his strongest skill in the toolbox. He ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Ball-striking in this field, which is going to be immensely important on a second shot course like this one.
In addition to this, Conners ranks solidly in both Good Drives Gained (5th) and Bogey Avoidance (2nd), which will both be key metrics this week.
I expect Conners to be in contention all week in his final tune up for the Masters, and 24/1 is a solid number for him.
Mid-Range Value
Valero Texas Open
Brendon Todd +4800
Todd's been a pretty hit or miss player so far in the 2022-23 season; he's either placed in the top 15 of tournaments or missed the cut entirely, and it doesn't just depend on the strength of the field.
He's contended strongly at weaker-field events like the Fortinet Championship (T9) as well as stronger fields like THE PLAYERS (T27) or the Pebble Beach Pro-Am (T2), but he's also missed the cut at the WM Phoenix, the Genesis Invitational, and the Sanderson Farms.
Todd does come into this field on a strong note, finishing both the Arnold Palmer and THE PLAYERS inside the top 40, and while they aren't wins, he has the chops to compete in this field, especially at a number like this.
Todd is an elite putter, and it's helped him a ton in his career. I'm also looking at his rank in Good Drives Gained (2nd) and Sand Saves Gained (3rd), which of course are two of my favorite metrics for this week.
Lastly, Todd's course fit shouldn't be overlooked. He has two top-10 finishes at this event, including last year where he finished 8th.
Long Shot Picks
Valero Texas Open
Ben Martin +9000
Martin is your classic longshot play at the Valero Texas Open: he can come out of a weak field to take home his first title since the 2015 season.
He's had a little bit of a slow season so far, but he's making strides in the right direction with top 10 finishes at both the Honda Classic and the Corales Puntacana Championship in the last month.
Martin doesn't do really anything very well, which is why he's on the longshot part of the card, but he is solid at pretty much every metric you need this week, without wowing you in any of them.
This is the kind of event where you can eschew some metrics and course history (Martin has 4/5 made cuts here) and just trust that a player can come out of the woodwork to take home the title in a week that many people aren't watching.
Placement Bet to Take
Matt Kuchar +160
Make no mistake: Kuchar NEEDS a win this week. He wants to qualify for the Masters, and with his earlier-than-needed exit at last week's WGC, winning this event is his last chance for the 44-year-old to sneak into the hallowed grounds of Augusta this year.
With that being said, Kuchar is first in line of the golfers I love for narrative purposes this week to placement in the top third of this event.
He has played this event and course every year since 2012, and he has three top 7 finishes and 6 total top-15s to show for it without a win (his best finish was T2). In addition to that, he just fits this course very well. He ranks 3rd in Bogey Avoidance, 14th in Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking, and 13th in Sand Saves Gained. Kuchar has always been a player who can get there with his irons too, and his history at this event show that he's always comfortable here.
How to Bet on Golf
Golf betting has gained much more exposure and interest in the past few years, and with plenty of plus-money prices littered throughout the various forms of golf wagers, the chance for bigger scores is part of the reason behind that increased popularity.
Sportsbooks ensure that there is no shortage of wagering options on golf tournaments every week, and it isn't all about picking the winner. Grabbing the outright winner of a golf tournament is the best way to get that 'big score,' but it's also the hardest wager to cash. After all, a typical professional golf tournament has a field of 140+ players to consider.
Understanding Golf Odds and Bets
Most golf odds are listed in the fractional format – 10/1 on Dustin Johnson for example – and in that particular case you would multiply the amount bet by that first number to project your winnings. So a $100 bet on DJ to win that particular event would win you $1000.If you are more comfortable with the American version of odds listings that you typically see across the other major North American sports – ie +1000 – these numbers are easily convertible. Online and app based books may already have that option built in, but the easiest way to do it yourself is to add two zeros to the first number in the fraction. So a 10/1 price on DJ converts to +1000 in that format.
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