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Golf

Waste Management Phoenix Open Picks, Odds and Predictions

Sam Wagman
Sam Wagman Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read

Last week's Pebble Beach Pro Am brought some intensity into the mix, as we watched Justin Rose falter early in his Sunday round but hold off a charging Denny McCarthy (sadness) and Brendan Todd to win his first tournament in over 4 years.

Now though, we move on to one of the funnest tournaments on the non-major schedule as we exit the California swing, the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

2023 Waste Management Phoenix Open

Always a favorite venue of Arizona State alums to begin with, the Stadium Course really is a slow burn for the most part. Plod your way through the front nine with a few birdies and then hold on tight for whatever the back nine throws at guys.

No matter what side of the course guys are on, hitting greens and scoring on Par 4's is how some will separate themselves from the pack. That, and avoiding those ugly numbers after bad shots. TPC Scottsdale can yield some very good scores for those that do get in a groove, but can show it's teeth at times as well if guys are missing their landing spots.

Outside of the physical layout of the course, the historical layout of the event is one that's going to likely come down to the wire on Sunday. Four of the last five winners here were determined in a playoff, and 12 of the last 14 champions of this event did so by a single stroke or in a playoff.

Meaning waiting until Saturday night might be the best option of the bunch in terms of getting full size units down on guys, because who knows who will be the names with a legitimate shot going into Sunday, and who knows what kind of damage the closing stretch TPC Scottsdale decides to inflict on Sunday afternoon.

Finally, course history can be weighted a little heavier here than other stops on the PGA Tour during the course of a season, as guys that have found success here, tend to do so year after year to some degree.

Waste Management Phoenix Open
Betting Odds

Waste Management Phoenix Open Contenders

  • Jon Rahm +750
  • Rory McIlroy +850
  • Scottie Scheffler +1300
  • Xander Schauffele +1600
  • Collin Morikawa +1800
  • Tony Finau +2000
  • Patrick Cantlay +2100
  • Justin Thomas +2200
  • More Golfers
  • (Odds Subject to Change)

I'm still more curious to see how this leaderboard shakes out come Saturday afternoon, but these are the three selections I'm starting off the week with:

Contender to Back
Waste Management Phoenix Open

Rory McIlroy +850

Come on, it's Rory, of all people. The top-ranked player in the world makes his calendar year debut on the PGA Tour this week, and it's a tournament where he has only played one time, but had a respectable T13 in that event. McIlroy has nearly everything you want in a top tier of contenders this week, starting with his Ball Striking stats: He ranks as one of six golfers in the field this week that rank in top 25 in terms of strokes gained on approach and strokes gained off the tee, so look for him to be a dangerous contender this week.

Mid-Range Value
Waste Management Phoenix Open

Tom Kim +3000

Kim is going to be a popular pick this week, as this is a semi-longer odds look than he has seen in some time, given the amount of spectacular golfers that are in the field this week.

Kim is absolutely dialed when on approach, so look for him to take advantage of this course with his terrific iron play. His one concern has been the flatstick so far on the Tour, but on this course, the greens are easy to read and the ball rolls true, so look for him to not have as much trouble there due to his approach skills.

Long Shot Pick
Waste Management Phoenix Open

Shane Lowry +8000

Lowry could be a surprise pick here, as his odds are allllll the way down the board this week at 80 to 1. Given his iron and approach dominance over the last handful of seasons, this is a surprise to me as he fits the archetype of players that succeed at this desert track.

It also helps that Lowry has spent the last few weeks playing desert golf on some of the Middle East tracks, so look for him to be familiar with a lot of the shots he'll have to make out there in Arizona.

Top 20 Pick: Waste Management Phoenix Open

Sungjae Im +120

Call it a copout pick, but Sungjae has just been too hot lately for me to fade him staying in contention this weekend. He already has three top 10 finishes this season and 5 top 20s, so look for him to keep the field honest this week in Phoenix.

Im has one of the best wedge games on Tour, so he'll be able to take advantage of the easier greens here. He also is elite when it comes to Bogey Avoidance, which will be big out here as you still have to be able to put up some low numbers when each of the last six winners have been -16 or better taking home the trophy.

How to Bet on Golf

Golf betting has gained much more exposure and interest in the past few years, and with plenty of plus-money prices littered throughout the various forms of golf wagers, the chance for bigger scores is part of the reason behind that increased popularity.

2023 Golf Betting Schedule

Sportsbooks ensure that there are no shortage of wagering options on golf tournaments every week, and it isn't all about picking the winner. Grabbing the outright winner of a golf tournament is the best way to get that 'big score' but it's also the hardest wager to cash. After all, a typical professional golf tournament has a field of 140+ different players to consider.

Understanding Golf Odds and Bets

Most golf odds are listed in the fractional format – 10/1 on Dustin Johnson for example – and in that particular case you would multiply the amount bet by that first number to project your winnings. So a $100 bet on DJ to win that particular event would win you $1000.

If you are more comfortable with the American version of odds listings that you typically see across the other major North American sports – ie +1000 – these numbers are easily convertible. Online and app based books may already have that option built in, but the easiest way to do it yourself is to add two zeros to the first number in the fraction. So a 10/1 price on DJ converts to +1000 in that format.

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Sam Wagman

Sam Wagman

Sam Wagman is a fantasy football and sports betting content expert who has loved sports his entire life. He started covering all of the Philadelphia sports teams back in 2019 and switched over to fantasy football and sports betting in 2021, mostly delving into football and golf betting. He joined the VegasInsider team in 2022 and has written for sites like Footballguys and Fantasy Points as well. Sam is a diehard sports fanatic to the end and can frequently be found playing different sports. He likes golf the most, and is currently trying to break 80 before he breaks his clubs. He loves his dog Rocky, the beach, and driving with the windows down, though he's at his happiest when he's yelling at the TV for his bets to hit or his fantasy team to win. More from Sam Wagman
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