Arkansas Derby Picks, Predictions, Odds

The 148th Kentucky Derby is scheduled to take place on Saturday May 7, 2022 from Churchill Downs and the Kentucky Derby prep schedule continues to heat up during the months of March and April.

VegasInsider horse racing expert Anthony Stabile will be providing his Free Picks and Finish Predictionsfor key races throughout the prep season and he's focusing on one race for Saturday April 2, 2022 -- the 2022 Arkansas Derby.

Arkansas Derby Resources

• Date: Saturday, April 2, 2022
• Post-Time: 7:35 p.m. ET
• Race: 12
• Distance-Length: Dirt, 1 1/8 Miles
• Qualification: Three-year-olds
• Track: Oaklawn Park
• Location: Hot Springs, Arkansas

Arkansas Derby Betting Analysis

1) KAVOD (15-1)

He has plenty of early speed and he’ll break from the inside post position once again today. Maybe the removal of blinkers helps him settle, but he’s likely committed to the lead from the gate and he’s come up short late in each of his last 3 starts at slightly shorter trips than he’ll try here. They’ll probably have to catch him.

2) CHASING TIME (12-1)

He’ll get yet another new rider after failing to seriously threaten some of these late in the G2 Rebel here five weeks ago. Maybe the move towards the inside will help him sit a better trip early and his barn has won this race 4 times, most recently with Super Stock last year, but he’s got some improving to do.

3) BARBER ROAD (8-1)

He’s another one who will move to an inside post draw after hitting the board from outside posts in each of his last three local starts over the winter. His strong late kick should again make him a player in the lane and a better trip could change his fortunes. One to consider.

4) DOPPLEGANGER (3-1)

Chased a promising front running winner in his California finale in the San Felipe at Santa Anita and held second money over a weak remainder of the field. The equipment change may help as could the second route attempt, but at his morning line price he appears to be an underlay.

5) UN OJO (6-1)

Upset Rebel winner sat a good spot down inside while earning a light speed figure in that heat. He won’t be 75-1 this time and probably won’t fall into another easy trip either. Have to limit his use to underneath in exotics wagers.

6) SECRET OATH (5-2)

She’s been little short of a super filly since shipping to Oaklawn Park for the winter late last year, taking each of her route starts against her own sex by open lengths. Waters get deeper as she takes on the boys here, but she’s already run faster than any of them and the added ground looks to be right up her alley. Her barn has won this race twice, including the 1984 renewal with the filly Althea. Clearly the one to beat.

7) BEN DIESEL (15-1)

Wasn’t a threat behind several of these in the Rebel after a soft inside trip helped him last for third money in the Southwest. Like the way he’s worked of late, but he’ll need to find a lot more to have a say in the outcome.

8) CYBERKNIFE (8-1)

Got some confidence back when dropped out of the stakes ranks at Fair Grounds last time, easily handling allowance runners, and his regular pilot will return on him as well. He has tactical foot to secure a spot close to the front runners early. Worth a look.

9) WE THE PEOPLE (7-2)

He’s undefeated and untested in 2 careers starts, taking each of those local route attempts as he pleased. He will get a class test on the rise to the stakes ranks today and his regular pilot ends up elsewhere, but he’s shown he’s capable of being any kind and the pedigree suggests he only gets better with added distance. Working sharply, he gets the nod to keep progressing in his prep for the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May.

IF I’M RIGHT…

A solid pace develops and 9 – WE THE PEOPLE is able to secure a spot tracking it from the outside post before sweeping to the top turning for home, holding off his main rival, filly 6 - SECRET OATH to take this Grade 1 event. It’s several lengths back to latecomers 3 – BARBER ROAD and 5 – UN OJO who battle it out for the minor awards.

HOW I WOULD INVEST $100…

• $30 EXACTA BOX 6-9
• $20 EXACTA 9-6

• $5 EXACTA 6-9 over 3-5