Preakness Stakes Picks, Predictions, Odds

VegasInsider horse racing expert Anthony Stabile will be providing his Free Picks and Finish Predictions for key races throughout the prep season and he's focusing on one race for Saturday, May 21, 2022 -- the 2022 Preakness Stakes.

Sign up to get daily betting columns directly to your inbox!

Preakness Stakes Resources

• Date: Saturday, May 21, 2022
• Post-Time: 7:01 p.m. ET
• Race: 13
• Distance-Length: Dirt, 1 3/16 Miles
• Qualification: Three-year-olds
• Track: Pimlico Racecourse
• Location: Baltimore, Maryland
• Odds: Preakness Stakes Odds

Preakness Stakes Picks

IF I'M RIGHT...

1. (5) Early Voting
2. (2) Creative Minister
3. (8) Epicenter
4. (4) Secret Oath

SUGGESTED BETS..

• EXACTA 5 over 2, 4, 8
• TRIFECTA BOX 2, 4, 5, 8

IF ALL HELL BREAKS LOOSE...

1. (1) Simplification
2. (7) Armagnac
3. (4) Secret Oath
4. (9) Skippylongstocking

(Morning Line Odds)

For the latest Live Preakness Stakes Odds on all of the eligible runners for the Preakness Stakes, check out TwinSpires.

1) SIMPLIFICATION (6-1)

Jockey: John Velazquez (Preakness Wins: 0)
Trainer: Antonio Sano (Preakness Wins: 0)

PROS

Ran a big race in the Kentucky Derby while overcoming a wide trip and proving that he can handle a Classic distance. He fires a good shot every time and he does possess enough early foot to secure a good spot down inside from the outset today. He’ll get a switch to a Hall of Fame rider here.

CONS

He finished nearly three lengths behind Derby favorite Epicenter who returns here as well and after getting a month between each of his starts this year will need to move forward while returning in half that time while trying to bridge the gap on that guy.

2) CREATIVE MINISTER (10-1)

Jockey: Brian Hernandez, Jr. (Preakness Wins: 0)
Trainer: Kenneth McPeek (Preakness Wins: 1)

PROS

Gray colt has been improving steadily in each of his two recent scores and he overcame a tough start to win in his first try against winners at Churchill Downs. A better beginning probably puts him in a good spot behind the speeds while trying a longer trip he’s bred to love. His morning line price of 10-1 looks to represent some decent value and his connections have ponied up $150,000 to supplement him to this race.

CONS

He’s relatively inexperienced with just a few starts under his belt and he will take a big step up the class ladder today.

3) FENWICK (50-1)

Jockey: Florent Geroux (Preakness Wins: 0)
Trainer: Kevin McKathan (Preakness Wins: 0)

PROS

He did win a two turn route a couple of starts ago in Florida and he will get a switch to a rider who is no stranger to the big stage and that could benefit him.

CONS

His lone score came over maidens when allowed the front end to himself and the number he earned was light years better than anything else he has run. The last out run in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland looks to be much more representative of his fit in a spot like this race.

4) SECRET OATH (9-2)

Jockey: Luis Saez (Preakness Wins: 0)
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas (Preakness Wins: 6)

PROS

She’s the lone G1 SW in this field and boasts a strong late kick which she used to impressively run away from her own sex in the Kentucky Oaks two weeks ago in which she earned a career best speed figure. The slightly added trip here figures to pose her little problem and she did have some trip issues while making a wide move in her lone try again the boys, the 9 furlong Arkansas Derby in which she far from disgraced herself as the beaten chalk. She resides in a barn that has won this race 6 times.

CONS

After enjoying at least 4 weeks between her races she will now return in half that time off the best effort she’s run to date and she will still need to improve some from a figure standpoint to threaten the best the top colts in here are capable of throwing down.

5) EARLY VOTING (7-2)

Jockey: Jose Ortiz (Preakness Wins: 0)
Trainer: Chad Brown (Preakness Wins: 1)

PROS

He’s lightly raced and has done very little wrong in his 3 starts, showing sharp early foot each time and just failing to hold off subsequent Kentucky Derby 4th place finisher Mo Donegal when sent 9 furlongs in Aqueduct’s G2 Wood Memorial. Skipping the Derby has given him an extra 2 weeks to recover from the career best effort and that’s no small advantage against rivals who were trained for peak efforts in Kentucky. His Belmont Park blowout drill last week suggests he’s on his toes and ready to roll from the bell and he will likely have to be caught over a track that traditionally plays kindly to speed.

CONS

He’s relatively inexperienced and though he’s very fleet of foot early he will face some other speed in this field. The extra distance is new to him, like many in here, and he did get run down last time.

6) HAPPY JACK (30-1)

Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione (Preakness Wins: 1)
Trainer: Doug O'Neill (Preakness Wins: 1)

PROS

He has plenty of stakes route experience and he’ll get blinkers put back on after failing to factor without them in the Kentucky Derby.

CONS

He has only a maiden sprint score to his credit and hasn’t been close to the winner in any of his handful of stakes starts.

7) ARMAGNAC (12-1)

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. (Preakness Wins: 0)
Trainer: Tim Yakteen (Preakness Wins: 0)

PROS

Looked pretty good when allowed to set the pace with blinkers removed on the class drop last out, earning a career best speed figure in the process. He’ll get a switch to a top pilot for the move East after making each of his career starts in California.

CONS

There’s plenty of other speed in here and that won’t make it easy for him to do his thing. This will be the first time he races somewhere other than Santa Anita.

8) EPICENTER (6-5)

Jockey: Joel Rosario (Preakness Wins: 0)
Trainer: Steven Asmussen (Preakness Wins: 2)

PROS

He was runner up while possibly moving a bit too soon in the Kentucky Derby where the 10 furlong trip proved to be just a little far for him so the slight cut back to a trip at which he was successful 2 starts back should only help. Colt possesses a ton of natural speed which should help him make his own trip from the outset here. Simply a repeat of his Derby effort should make him tough to down.

CONS

He was runner up while possibly moving a bit too soon in the Kentucky Derby where the 10 furlong trip proved to be just a little far for him so the slight cut back to a trip at which he was successful 2 starts back should only help. Colt possesses a ton of natural speed which should help him make his own trip from the outset here. Simply a repeat of his Derby effort should make him tough to down.

9) SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING (20-1)

Jockey: Junior Alvarado (Preakness Wins: 0)
Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr. (Preakness Wins: 0)

PROS

He’s done his best running of late and showed he’s a decent fit at this level when finishing right behind today’s rival Early Voting in Aqueduct’s Wood Memorial last month.

CONS

He’s had more starts than anyone in here so there may not be so much room for upside and he still has several lengths to make up on Early Voting. Not sure that we are going to see his best at today’s longer trip.

IF I'M RIGHT...

5 – EARLY VOTING breaks from the gate on top and clears the field while never looking back to take this year’s running of the Preakness Stakes. 2 – CREATIVE MINISTER rewards his team’s supplemental confidence and rolls up off an inside/out trip to get second money. 8 – EPICENTER is positioned well behind the front runners but begins to feel the rigors of his Kentucky Derby run and isn’t able to muster the needed kick late, settling for third money over the filly 4 – SECRET OATH who just isn’t good enough to factor for better than fourth money.

SUGGESTED PLAYS...

• EXACTA 5 over 2, 4, 8
• TRIFECTA BOX 2, 4, 5, 8

IF ALL HELL BREAKS LOOSE...

The big players engage each other on the lead and don’t have much to offer in the lane. 1 – SIMPLIFICATION continues his string of hard trying efforts and takes advantage late. 7 – ARMAGNAC takes back off the pace duel and lasts for second money while 4 – SECRET OATH outlasts the plodding 9 - SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING for third money.