Thursday’s Picks from Belmont Park

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

We kick off the second week of the fall Belmont Park meeting with a $74,732 Pick 6 carryover after the wager went unsolved on Sunday.

Among the winners on Sunday were Gino at $21.80 and Fight On Lucy who paid $32.80. Five of six returned bettors $3,344. The sequence starts today with the fourth race with a post of 3:30 ET and is a $1 wager.

We have no Breeders’ Cup Challenge races this weekend in the U.S. but several races coming up that will likely produce starters for the two-day championship.

Among those is the $1 million Pennsylvania Derby (G1) which drew a stellar group of three-year-olds. Ten were entered but trainer Bob Baffert has elected to keep Medina Spirit home after drawing the nine post. The colt would have been the 2-1 morning line favorite.

The major players are Travers (G1) runner up Midnight Bourbon (5-1), Hot Rod Charlie (5-2), who crossed the wire first in the Haskell Invitational (G1) but was disqualified for interference and Travers fourth place finisher Keepmeinmind (8-1).

I am not a fan of Parx Racing as their takeout is still higher than most tacks, but we will take a look at a few of the races on Saturday. Among those is the $1 million Cotillion (G1) which may produce a starter or two for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1).

At Belmont Park on Saturday we have the $200,000 Athenia (G3) and the $300,000 Kelso Handicap (G2).

“America’s Day at the Races” is on FS2 from 2:00 to 8:00 ETthis afternoon with the action from Belmont Park and Churchill Downs. TVG is offering new players  up to a $300 Risk Free wager.  In addition, AmWager is offering up to a $500 bonus for new horseplayers.

To purchase my Belmont Park Report for Thursday click here .

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package . It gives you a month of Belmont Park Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.

Here is the opener from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BELMONT PARK 1 ANALYSIS (2:05 P.M. ET)

 BEL Race 1 Clm $35,000N3L

• #5 El Sobreviviente 9-5
• #2 Devious Mo 4-1
• #1 Casalsa 5-2
• #3 Golani Brigade 2-1

Analysis: El Sobreviviente came with a good late run to finish in the runner up spot last out at this level going seven panels over a wet track at the Spa. He was claimed out of the race by the Atras barn that is 31% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. He claimed him off Maker who after a hot start at the Spa really cooled off toward the end of the meet. He made just the one start for Maker who claimed him out of a race at Indiana Grand. A repeat of his last looks good enough to beat this group and with Kendrick up he should be more forwardly placed here.

Devious Mo chased the early pace, came with a five wide bid and could not go with the top pair in a third-place finish last out at this level. The winner Montauk Daddy came back to bet $50,000 starter allowance foes on Aug. 29 at Saratoga. He broke his maiden by nearly nine lengths against $25,000 state breds back in March and tired stakes company in is first four starts against winners, taking a NY Stallion Series race at Aqueduct in his first go against winners. His form has tailed off but he reunites with Irad and has run pretty well on wet tracks if we get some early rain. He seems capable of better than his last outing and his two previous starts came on turf.

BELMONT PARK 5 ANALYSIS (4:11 P.M. ET)

BEL Race 5 Md Sp Wt

• #7 Excursionniste 4-1
• #9 Juggler 7-2
• #10 Kingham Hill 10-1
• #2 Sir John 8-1

Analysis: Excursionniste made his debut on the main track at the Spa in a race taken off the turf. The colt was sent off at 12-1, was away next to last and came with a mild late rally to finish third over a racing strip that was kind to inside speed. The colt has a decent enough turf pedigree, by Tourist out of a Seeking the Gold mare that has dropped three other runners with a pair of dirt winners, no turf winners to date. The barn is on the light side moving runners from dirt to turf, hitting at just a 5% clip, but this colt showed some ability in his debut effort and this is not a very tough looking spot.

Juggler makes his first start on turf and first route try here for the Breen barn. His best effort came in the mud two back where he finished evenly in a third-place finish behind repeat winner Senebi who came back to win the state bred Funny Cide in his next start on Aug. 27 at the Spa. This colt is by Lord Nelson out of a Tale of the Cat mare that has dropped three dirt winners. Blinkers go on and barn is 24% winners (with a +ROI) when adding the hood for the first time.

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their Pick 4 and Pick 5 wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win wager. 

Belmont Park

• R2: #4 Curbstone 10-1
• R3: #2 Full Court Press 8-1
• R4: #6 Parlor 12-1
• R4: #4 Rocking the House 8-1
• R5: #10 Kingham Hill 10-1
• R5: #2 Sir John 8-1
• R6: #10 Montatham 8-1
• R6: #4 Restored Order 8-1
• R7: #1 Scherzando 12-1
• R8: #3 Big Time Lady 8-1

Good luck today!

VegasInsider Staff

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