Kentucky Oaks Picks, Predictions, Odds

VegasInsider horse racing expert Anthony Stabile will be providing his Free Picks and Finish Predictions for key races throughout the prep season and he's focusing on one race for Friday, May 3, 2022 -- the 2022 Kentucky Oaks.

Kentucky Oaks Resources

• Date: Friday, May 6, 2022
• Post-Time: 5:51 p.m. ET
• Race: 11
• Distance-Length: Dirt, 1 1/8 Miles
• Qualification: Three-year-olds, Fillies
• Track: Churchill Downs
• Location: Louisville, Kentucky

Kentucky Oaks Betting Analysis

1) SECRET OATH (6-1)

She ran three route races this winter in Arkansas that were so impressive that she was sent off the favorite against the boys in the G1 Arkansas Derby and despite a tough beginning she ran quite well from a wide spot in the track in that one. Her trainer D. Wayne Lukas has won this race four times, though the most recent came over 30 years ago with Seaside Attraction (1990). Back in with her own sex and breaking from a ground saving post position, she figures to be plenty dangerous late and looms a huge threat to win this race.

2) NOSTALGIC (15-1)

Enters the toughest contest of her life riding a speed figure upswing for a barn that’s known for improving its runners with racing. Her rider Jose Ortiz won this race three years ago with Serengeti Empress, but she will need to take another good step forward to have a say in the outcome today.

3) HIDDEN CONNECTION (20-1)

Had a race under her belt this year when missing just a nose to juvenile champion Echo Zulu last out in the Fair Grounds Oaks. That rival figures to be loose on the front end once again and though she has a solid tactical gear, may find it a tougher task getting to her this time around.

4) NEST (5-2)

This filly was quite good when crushing her rivals in the G1 Ashland at Keeneland early last month and certainly figures to appreciate the stretch back out to today’s 9 furlong distance. Todd Pletcher barn has won this race 4 times, most recently last year with Malathaat. She took a big step forward in her second start of the year and is another big player in this loaded renewal of the Kentucky Oaks.

5) GODDESS OF FIRE (15-1)

Second of the barn’s 3 entrants in this race has been second best in each of her starts this year at 3 different venues. She does enter this off a career best effort and she’ll reunite with a Hall of Fame pilot who has done quite a bit of damage when called upon by this outfit over the years, including win aboard Malathaat in this race last year. Concern is that the undefeated filly who ran away from her last time returns in this heat as well.

6) UUGURI (30-1)

Brings plenty of speed to the table after wiring G3 stakes types in the Fantasy at Oaklawn Park last month. She’ll have to negotiate a longer trip here and with have the rival next door to deal with from the bell. Nice filly, but she has her work cut out for her today.

7) ECHO ZULU (4-1)

Last year’s juvenile filly champ barely held on while making her first start of the season going a shorter trip in the Fair Grounds Oaks, earning her lowest career speed figure. The Steve Asmussen barn has won this race twice, most recently with Untapable in 2014. She’ll tackle an added half-furlong here, but she’s had 6 weeks to recover from her return exertion and though she faces pace company from her inside she did show in her debut last summer at Saratoga that she can be looked in the eye and still fire. They will have to run her down to win.

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8) VENTI VALENTINE (20-1)

New York bred was unable to hold off one of today’s foes when able to make the lead through soft splits in Aqueduct’s G3 Gazelle when stretched back out to this trip last time out. She tries hard every time she goes out there and her early foot will have her in a good spot from the bell, but don’t know that she’s good enough to step with some of these late.

9) DESERT DAWN (20-1)

Santa Anita Oaks winner was able to hold on to score in a heat which came back with a moderate speed figure. The California fillies were not a very strong bunch this winter and spring so prefer to just watch this gal in here.

10) KATHLEEN O (7-2)

Exits a powerful score when stretched out to 2 turns for the first time in the Gulfstream Park Oaks while making her fourth career start. Undefeated filly gives the impression that the farther she’s asked to run, the better she’ll be and the pace in front of her does figure to be honest. ‘Shug’ McGaughey barn won this race in 1993 with Dispute and today’s pilot Javier Castellano won this race in 2016 with Cathryn Sophia. Expect to see her rolling in the lane.

11) COCKTAIL MOMENTS (30-1)

She has just a maiden win to her credit and though she finished behind a couple of the bigger gals in here to earn minor awards in recent stakes tries, she really wasn’t much of a threat either time. Speed figures suggest she’s got some work to do to threaten this field.

12) CANDY RAID (30-1)

Needed the move to synthetic footing to find the winner’s circle at Turfway Park and most were quite surprised in the effort as she returned over $100 on a $2 win wager in that race. Not impossible the lightbulb went off in her head but have to doubt she can do it again here.

13) SHAHARA (15-2)

The third of the Pletcher trained runners will make her first start in the states off a freshening here after going undefeated in 4 starts in UAE over the winter. Her most recent win did come at a longer distance then she’ll try here and she will get the services of a top jockey in Flavien Prat, but she’s picked a tough spot in which to make her stateside debut.

14) TURNERLOOSE (20-1)

She’ll start from the outside post after tiring from chasing Echo Zulu in the Fair Grounds Oaks 6 weeks ago. Maybe she’s better in her third start of the year and she has won from a pace tracking spot, but she’ll need to get a lot better from a speed figure standpoint and she’s sure to lose ground from this starting slot.

15) AE - BEGUINE (30-1)

Went from maiden winner to a neck shy of G3 stakes laurels when second in Oaklawn’s Fantasy early last month. Improving filly has every right to keep getting better, but she’s on the AE list and even if a scratch allows her to meet the starter she’ll be stuck breaking from the outside slot which given her style will not be easy to overcome.

IF I’M RIGHT…

7 – ECHO ZULU is tighter with her first start of the year behind her and she leads this field to the wire. 4 – NEST appreciates the added ground and makes a powerful run to get second money while 1 – SECRET OATH and 10 – KATHLEEN O battle it out for third money.

SUGGESTED PLAYS...

• EXACTA 7 over 1, 4, 10
• TRIFECTA BOX 1, 4, 7, 10

IF ALL HELL BREAKS LOOSE...

6 – YUUGIRI is allowed to canter along on the front end without any serious pace pressure, her strong late running competition fails to show up and she leads the rest on a merry chase to the wire. If this unlikely scenario comes to fruition it will enable us to get an early final look at Saturday’s Kentucky Derby.

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