2022 Gotham Stakes Picks, Predictions, Odds

The 148th Kentucky Derby is scheduled to take place on Saturday May 7, 2022 from Churchill Downs and the Kentucky Derby prep schedule continues to heat up during the months of March and April.

VegasInsider horse racing expert Anthony Stabile will be providing his Free Picks and Finish Predictions for key races throughout the prep season and he's focusing on three races for Saturday Mar. 5, 2022.

Along with breaking down the Gotham Stakes, he's also handicapped the San Felipe and Fountain of Youth for Saturday too.

GOTHAM STAKES RESOURCES

Date: Saturday, March 6, 2022
Post-Time: 5:27 p.m. ET
Race: 10
Distance-Length: Dirt, 1 Mile
Qualification: Three-year-olds
Track: Aqueduct Racetrack
Location: Jamaica, Queens, New York

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GOTHAM STAKES BETTING ANALYSIS

(Morning-Line Odds)

1) RUNNINSONOFAGUN (30-1)

Ran down the front runner when making his first start both with winners and off this barn’s claim to run his career record to 2 for 3. Both of those scores came sprinting, however, and now he’ll need to negotiate 8 furlongs against a better bunch than he’s used to facing. Looks to have his work cut out for him from this inside draw.

2) GLIDER (8-1)

His sharp barn started him off routing and will have him try his shortest trip yet while making his stakes debut in today’s one turn mile. Have to like the steady improvement he’s shown on the speed figure scale and his late kick figures to be enhanced in a field that’s loaded with early speed. With a couple of sharp breezes at his Florida training base in tow for the ship North and the presence of his last out rider, this colt figures to be plenty dangerous in the lane.

3) GOLDEN CODE (12-1)

Crushed fellow New York bred maidens when going a bit shorter in the local mud last time and will now face open company and winners in this stakes race. Todd Pletcher barn has won this race twice in the past, most recently with Stay Thirsty in 2011 and his rider scored aboard Mischevious Alex in this heat’s renewal 2 years ago. He’s got a right to be better, but as one of many with early foot in here, he’ll need to be in order to have a say in the outcome.

4) FROMANOTHAMUTHA (6-1)

Earned a nice speed figure in handling overmatched non-winners on the turn back to sprinting here in January and now he’ll get back to the stakes ranks where he was crushed by a rival who would have been one of the bigger players in today’s Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park, but who will likely scratch due to sickness. While his last effort suggests he’s one to consider today, he accomplished it with the benefit of the lead from the outset and that likely proves a much tougher task today.

5) DEAN’S LIST (7-2)

Ships up from Florida with high speed and a perfect 2 for 2 record sprinting for a barn that has won this race twice before. Like the way he was able to persevere when looked in the eye in the lane last time, but he won’t have a cakewalk on the front end today, either, and don’t know that his pedigree is going to help him get a lot better on the stretch out today.

6) LIFE IS GREAT (15-1)

Field’s most experienced runner has earned checks in stakes company going a bit shorter in each of his last two tries, but last time he was clearly no threat late to Morello who he will meet again today. He’s only finished off the board once, so maybe he hangs around against and finds a way to get in the exotics mix but have to look at others for the top spot.

7) NONEEDTOWORRY (30-1)

He hasn’t run fast enough in any of his starts to play a leading role in this spot. Off the pace type lands in a seemingly favorable spot from a pace standpoint but he was able to offer very little in a similar situation going longer in his last out stakes and local debut. Have to pass on him.

8) BOLD JOURNEY (6-1)

Wilted late after setting solid splits on the stretchout to this trip in the Gander Stakes for New York breds a few weeks ago. There’s plenty of speed in this field and still not convinced he needs the lead to be effective. Mott barn is known for improving its young runners with experience and this colt should be better with that initial one turn mile spin under his belt. Expecting a big effort out of him today.

9) MORELLO (3-1)

He’s been impressive in his two lifetime starts, showing the ability to settle early before making his run to the top each time and that will certainly benefit him given both the pace scenario and this outside draw. His rider Jose Lezcano won this race in 2008 with Visionaire and it doesn’t hurt this this guy has the winningest barn of all-time in his corner, either. Looms a major player.

10) ROCKEFELLER (4-1)

Ships across the country for his first start since New Year’s Day when finishing runner up as the chalk in Santa Anita’s G3 Sham Stakes behind Newgrange who ran off the board as the favorite in Oaklawn’s G2 Rebel Stakes last weekend. His rider Trevor McCarthy won this race last year with Weyburn. Trainer Bob Baffert’s runners are not eligible to earn any Kentucky Derby qualifying points, which this race does offer. While this G3 SW at the trip clearly has ability, he looks like one who appreciates being on the front end from the outset and he draws a pretty tough post from which to attempt to employ those tactics today.

GOTHAM STAKES BEST BETS

IF I’M RIGHT…

The pace proves to be a quick one and several of the pacesetters begin their retreat as the field turns for home. 9 - MORELLO comes away with the lead from his outside tracking trip and 8 - BOLD JOURNEY goes with him but neither is able to hold off the late run of 2 - GLIDER who sweeps by to score, leaving them to fight it out for the runner up spot.