4th of July Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting Odds

For the first time since 2015, the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest will be won by somebody other than Joey Chestnut. With the most famous professional eater in the country out of the competition, the men’s contest is expected to be competitive for the first time in years, with a number of worthy contestants set to take the stage. Chestnut won’t be taking the day off however, as he has his own competition set for Independence Day. The hot dog eating legend will take place in an exhibition pitting him against four soldiers who will be working together. More on that later.

Ahead of one of the most cherished 4th of July traditions we put together betting odds for every competitor in the men’s and women’s Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, as well as Joey Chestnut’s competition at Fort Bliss.

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Men’s Competition Odds

With Joey Chestnut banned from this year’s event, there is no obvious favorite expected to run away with the title. Geoff Esper, who has finished as the event’s runner up the past three years, is currently the favorite with his odds sitting at -120. That is a fairly narrow lead over James Webb, who has +200 odds. Nick Wehry rounds out the top three most likely winners with +550 odds. Patrick Bertoletti is also very much in the mix with +800 odds of going home with the victory.

A Nick Wehry victory could make its own history as his wife, Miki Sudo, is the heavy favorite to win the women’s competition. “The Hungry Couple” as they’re known could become the first married couple to win the competition in the same year. A parlay on Wehry and Sudo to each win would net +590 odds.

Women’s Competition Odds

Unlike the men’s contest which features an upper echelon of competitors but no runaway favorite, one contestant stands above the rest in the women’s event. Miki Sudo has won nine of the last ten Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contests and is the women’s world record holder in hot dog eating. Sudo returns for this year’s event and has -1600 odds of repeating as champion. The only other contestant with odds better than +1000 is Mayoi Ebihara at +700. Ebihara was last year’s runner up, eating just six fewer hot dogs and buns than Sudo, a close finish by the world record holder’s standards. Michelle Lesco rounds out the top three. Lesco is the only other person to have won the event in the past decade, coming in first in the 2021 contest and finishing third last year. Even with that history though, Lesco still has just +2000 odds to take home another title.

Joey Chestnut Fort Bliss Competition Odds

Banned from competing in Coney Island this year, Joey Chestnut will celebrate the 4th of July his own way. Chestnut will compete in a hot dog eating contest at Fort Bliss in El Paso, Texas. The event will see the world record holder take on four soldiers who will be working in tandem in a five minute contest (compared to the 10 minute time limit in the Nathan’s contest). That means that the amount of hot dogs the soldiers eat will all be tallied together, with Chestnut needing to surpass their cumulative total to win.

Chestnut is undeniably the best hot dog eater in the world, so much so that even facing a quarter of challengers, he is still favored. The numbers are close though, with Chestnut’s odds sitting at -200. For comparison’s sake, prior to being banned from the Nathan’s competition, he had -5000 odds to win according to BetMGM, and that event includes a number of fellow professional eaters. The four soldiers have a better shot at taking down the 16 time champion than anybody competing in Coney Island would have had.