MLB Home Run Props and Best Bets for Today, July 29th
These are the three best home run props for today, July 29, 2025:
- Kyle Manzardo
- Ketel Marte
- Kyle Stowers
We have a full slate this Tuesday. We are in the dog days of the MLB season with plenty of teams aiming to make an end-of-the-year push.
With the trade deadline looming, we’ll get some clarity on where teams stand after this week. With plenty of promising weather forecasts for this evening, let’s jump into some of our favorite dinger picks for this Tuesday.
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Be sure to check out our comprehensive MLB home run odds.
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Home Runs Odds
Kyle Manzardo to Hit a Home Run (+350 | FanDuel) vs. (SP: Tanner Gordon)
First up, we turn to Cleveland amidst a potential betting scandal.
As Cleveland weathers that storm, we’ll take a stab at Kyle Manzardo, who has had a career year to date. Manzardo is on pace for 24 home runs.
Manzardo has been equally effective against both righties and lefties (107 wRC+ and 109 wRC+, respectively).
He’ll take on Tanner Gordon, who has been able to limit the long ball (allowed 2 HRs in 24 IP), but is due for regression. Despite his big stature at 6’5, his fastball velocity comes in at under 92 mph, and he has relinquished plenty of hard hits (39%) as well as a high average exit velocity (90 mph).
Most sportsbooks have Manzardo closer to around +300 odds, while FanDuel Sportsbook is posting a juicy +350 number.
Ketel Marte to Hit a Home Run (+475 | bet365) vs. (SP: Casey Mize)
For our next pick is a 2025 favorite, Ketel Marte.
Although he has a tough matchup on paper against 2025 AL All-Star, Casey Mize, he is conducive to allowing plenty of fly balls (46.9% rate) and hard hits (37th percentile).
For seemingly the third straight year in Arizona, Marte has been nothing short of spectacular.
Tonight, Marte gets his more advantageous split batting from the left side, where he’s posted a ridiculous 183 wRC+, .600 SLG, and 15 of his long balls.
Kyle Stowers to Hit a Home Run (+625 | BetMGM) vs. (SP: Sonny Gray)
Lastly, we have one of the game’s hottest hitters in Kyle Stowers. Just before the All-Star break, Stowers tallied his first career three-home run game.
Despite playing in an underwhelming lineup, that hasn’t stopped Stowers from being arguably baseball’s best left fielder. Against righties, Stowers has a 174 wRC+, .627 SLG, with all 23 of his home runs coming against that same side.
He has a tough matchup tonight against Cardinals starter Sonny Gray. Although Gray has been able to limit the long ball (1.09 HR/9), he may be due for regression as he’s prone to giving up barrels (31st percentile) and hard hits (39%).Even though this isn’t the best matchup, the +625 number on BetMGM Sportsbook is too good to pass on.
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